Census 2016: Locals move out as new arrivals target Sydney

Sydney is running a "population deficit" with the rest of the country, new census figures show.

The figures for population movement released on Monday show that although Sydney benefited from an enormous inflow of migrants (399,620) in five years leading up to the census, it lost population to every region of the country.

Sydney sent 27,670 locals to Melbourne, many more than the 19,100 Melbourne residents who moved to Sydney.

It sent 21,480 locals to Brisbane, many more than the 15,570 Brisbane residents who moved to Sydney.

It sent 27,166 to regional Queensland, many more than the 19,100 regional Queenslanders who moved to Sydney, and 10,200 to Perth, many more than the 8660 Perth residents who returned to Sydney.

The exodus was particularly pronounced in regional NSW, which benefited from an outflow of 105,060 Sydneysiders, easily surpassing the flow of 62,470 moving from regional NSW to the city.

The picture painted by the Bureau of Statistics is of a city that has become the primary destination for immigrants who displace locals who move to other parts of Australia and other parts of the state.

The census shows a similar phenomenon in Melbourne, which in the five years leading up to the census gained residents from overseas and every region of Australia but one. That region was rural and regional Victoria, which gained 76,210 ex-Melburnians, easily exceeding the 59,220 who moved to Melbourne.

So great were the outflows from Sydney and Melbourne to the rest of NSW and Victoria that those regions became two of the fastest growing in the nation, gaining a net 17,570 and 28,720 new arrivals from the rest of the country.

The other regions to grow at the expense of the rest of the country were Greater Brisbane (25,440), regional Queensland (14,620), Greater Melbourne (10,670) and Greater Perth (5910).

The regions to lose locals to the rest of Australia were Greater Sydney (77,590), Adelaide (9470), regional Western Australia (5480) and regional South Australia (3060).

In The Age and Sydney Morning Herald

 

Census 2016: Australians flock to Melbourne as locals head out

Melbourne gained an extra 485,220 residents in the five years to the 2016 census, the overwhelming bulk of them imports from the rest of the country or overseas.

While most came from overseas (365,240), Sydney accounted for 27,670, more than any other Australian city, setting up a flow that was only partly offset by the 19,100 Melburnians who headed north to Sydney.

Brisbane sent 17,000 of its residents to Melbourne, a flow partly offset by the 13,700 Melburnians who moved in the other direction.

The next most important sources of new Melburnians were regional Queensland (16,730), regional NSW (15,350), Perth (14,190) and Adelaide (12,110).

The figures, in the second wave of census data released by the Bureau of Statistics on Monday show that all but one Australian region sent substantially more people to Melbourne than Melbourne sent to it. The exception is regional and rural Victoria, described by the Bureau as "rest of state".

A record 76,210 Melburnians moved to other parts of Victoria in the five years leading up to the census, comfortably more than the 59,220 regional Victorians who moved to Melbourne.

Melbourne was the only significant source of regional Victoria's population growth.

The picture painted by the Bureau is of a city that attracts immigrants and Australians from other states who displace locals who move to other parts of Victoria.

Its a phenomenon long established in NSW where Sydney takes the lion's share of immigrants who displace locals who move to other parts of the state.

In the five years leading up to the census 105,060 Sydneysiders left for regional NSW, more than offsetting the 62,470 regional residents who moved to Sydney.

So great was the outflow from Sydney and Melbourne to regions in the lead-up to the census that regional Victoria and regional NSW became two of the fastest growing regions in the nation, gaining 17,570 and 28,720 net arrivals from the rest of the country.

The other regions to grow at the expense of the rest of the country were Greater Brisbane (25,440), regional Queensland (14,620), Greater Melbourne (10,670) and Greater Perth (5910).

The regions to lose locals to the rest of Australia were Greater Sydney (77,590), Adelaide (9470), regional Western Australia (5480) and regional South Australia (3060).

In The Age and Sydney Morning Herald

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Victoria fills up as the rest of the nation moves in

In the past 12 months, 82,800 Australians have moved to Victoria from interstate, around 500 carloads a week.
At the same time, 65,600 Victorians have left.
The gap - a net influx of 17,200 - is an all-time record. Victoria's population is being swelled by more migrants from interstate than ever before, and by far more than any other state, even Queensland, which used to be the go-to state for the rest of nation.
Perhaps as a result, or perhaps as a driver, employment in Victoria has surged by 97,300 in the past year, accounting for almost all of the nationwide employment growth of 104,600.
In contrast, the once-booming jobs market in NSW produced only 2000 extra workers.
New population figures show that a jump in interstate migration, in overseas migration and in births lifted Victoria's population by 157,500 to 6.1 million in the year to September - an increase of 2.1 per cent, compared to 1.2 per cent in the rest of the nation.
Victoria now accounts for 25.2 per cent of Australia's population, the most since the share slid during the early 1990s recession.
Net foreign migration to Victoria reached a record 68,600 in the year to September. The natural increase (births minus deaths) reached 41,700, also a record high.
Domestic migrants to Victoria came predominantly from NSW (29,500), Queensland (15,200) Western Australia (11,500) and South Australia (9700).
The main destinations for Victorians moving interstate were NSW (22,900), Queensland (20,800) and Western Australia (7100).

Bureau of Statistics projections released with the population figures show Melbourne overtaking Sydney as Australia's biggest city in 2056.
The central projection puts Melbourne's population at 8.2 million, almost double the present 4.6 million, and Sydney's at 8.1 million, up from 5 million.
The slower growth in Sydney reflects congestion and geographical constraints of the sea and a mountain range.
By 2056, Victoria is projected to have a total population of 9.9 million and NSW 11.1 million.
A faster growth scenario has Melbourne well above Sydney at 9.2 million to 8.4 million, and a slower growth scenario has Sydney slightly ahead of Melbourne at 7.7 million to 7.4 million.
Australia's population is projected to be somewhere between 35 million and 45 million. The central projection is 39.7 million, up from the present 24.3 million.
In The Age and Sydney Morning Herald

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Why Sydneysiders are pulling up stumps. Victoria becomes Australia's fastest-growing state

An "extraordinary surge" in population has pushed Victoria to the top of the national ladder after it gained an extra 97,500 citizens in the year to March, a growth rate of 1.7 per cent.

The next fastest-growing states, NSW and Western Australia, had growth rates of only 1.4 per cent, which was also the national average and the slowest rate for a decade.

Australia's population growth rate is now well below the 2.1 per cent achieved during the height of the mining boom and below the 1.5 per cent per year assumed in the intergenerational report.

The slowdown is the result of both a slide in the birthrate and a sharp fall in so-called net overseas migration as fewer immigrants come to Australia and more Australians move overseas.

Victoria has also benefited for a surge in internal migration, as relatively affordable housing and good job prospects make it a magnet for the rest of Australia.

In the past six months, 37,800 Australians have moved to Victoria from other states and only 31,900 Victorians have left.

By contrast 45,400 Australians moved to NSW but 48,800 NSW residents left.

Victoria and Queensland are the only two states gaining population as a result of interstate migration...

Demographer Bob Birrell from the Australian Population Research Institute said conditions in Sydney were driving the exodus to Melbourne.

"If you want a freestanding house in Sydney for less than $600,000 you have to move out 55 kilometres," he said. "In Melbourne you can still get one for $300,000.

"I am actually a little surprised that more Sydneysiders aren't moving to Melbourne."

Immigration was also feeding the extraordinary surge in Victoria's population. Although NSW received slightly more immigrants than Victoria, Victoria received more as a proportion of its population.

Population projections produced by the Bureau of Statistics have Melbourne's population exceeding Sydney's on two of the three scenarios modelled.

Under the "high fertility, overseas migration and life expectancy" scenario, Melbourne's population would be 9.193 million by the middle of the century and Sydney's 8.431 million.

Under the "medium fertility, overseas migration and life expectancy" scenario, Melbourne's population would be 8.162 million, and Sydney's 8.124 million.

Under the "low fertility, overseas migration and life expectancy" scenario, Melbourne's population would be 7.353 million and Sydney's 7.716 million.

Dr Birrell said the projections assumed that recent rates of population growth would continue, something that was unlikely. The Melbourne CBD simply couldn't keep growing as fast as it had because it would run out of room.

The bureau had assumed that the mining boom-related surge in immigration would continue 40 years into the future.

In The Age and Sydney Morning Herald

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Relax. Early retirement won't kill you

Even if financially it's not so good

It’s known as “quit and die” - the belief that men who retire early die sooner. And it is said to be backed up by evidence.

In one often-cited but rarely-seen study the Shell Corporation is said to found that its employees who retired at 55 were nearly twice as likely to die in the next decade as those who kept working.

But evidence of a solid link has been hard to find, in part because ill health is one of the reasons people retire early.

Now Australia’s Centre of Excellence in Population Aging Research believes its cracked the puzzle.

In new research released Tuesday it says there is no such effect. Men who retire early are no more likely to die at any age than those who stay working.

The lead Australian author John Piggott had to get around what he called “confounding influences”.

“Some people retire early because they are ill. Six months later they die. But they didn’t die because they retired early,” he says.

“Some people retire early because their firm has shut down. They are demoralised and depressed, they face financial stress and their social networks break down. But they didn’t necessarily die early because they retired early, it might have been because of the way it happened.”

Professor Piggott and researchers from Norway took advantage of an usual “natural experiment”...

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In 1989 Norway introduced an early retirement program that covered some firms and not others. Around half its private sector employers steadily cut the minimum age for access to retirement benefits from 67 to 62. The others did not. Many years on the data shows no statistically significant difference in death rates up to the age of 70.

“It means you can leave work without worrying about losing years; do whatever works for you,” Professor Piggott says.

For the government the implications are that it too needn’t worry about hastening death by encouraging people to work longer.

“If it were firmly established that working longer led to an earlier death policy makers would feel kind of mean,” he says.

Professor Piggott supports delaying the age at which Australians can gain access to tax-free superannuation, but not because of any concern about lifespan.

“Many people retire at 60, get $400,000 tax-free and then three years down the track have only $160,000 and need to get back into the workforce. That’s extraordinarily difficult at age 63, and they can’t get the pension. I would lift the age for access to tax-free super in line with increases in the age for access to the pension,” he says.

Professor Piggott served on the Henry Tax Review.

In The Sydney Morning Herald


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Mostly False. Abbott could create 2 million new jobs

Abolishing the carbon tax, the mining tax and getting productivity up could "produce 1 million new jobs in five years, 2 million new jobs in a decade"

Tony Abbott, August 8 2013, Devonport


Tony Abbott says he has a plan to create jobs.

As he put it on Thursday: “Abolish the carbon tax, abolish the mining tax, get productivity up”.

He said it could “produce 1 million new jobs in five years, 2 million new jobs in a decade”.

Two million is an extraordinarily big number to add to a workforce of 11.6 million. But it has happened before.

Supporting evidence

In fact it’s happening now. Australia has producing new jobs at the rate of 2 million workers per decade since December 2006. The latest figures show the number of Australians in jobs climbed 2.2 million in the decade to July. So it ought to be easy to continue.

But does it stack up?

Population growth should help. Bureau of Statistics projections have Australia's population growing by between 2.7 million and 4.2 million over the next decade.

But it’s not that simple. Although Australia’s total population will keep growing, its working-age population will not. Adelaide University demographer Graeme Hugo says Australia’s working age population is set to peak and stop growing within a decade as baby boomers become retirees and give up work.

It’ll make Tony Abbott’s target of 2 million more people in jobs much harder to achieve than history suggests, perhaps impossible.

(Perversely, it should make it far easier than it used to be for anyone who is of employable age to find a job.)

Except for this. It won’t be Abbott that creates those jobs.

Here’s his Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey three years ago this month, campaigning in the same town - Devonport.

“Governments don’t create jobs, business creates jobs. Employers employ people, not governments.”

He could have added that demography - especially immigration - has a lot to do with it too.

Abbott is wrong to say that his “economic plan can produce 1 million new jobs in five years, 2 million new jobs in a decade”.

Most of those jobs would be created anyway, even without his economic plan. And changing demographics will make that difficult.

Finding

Politifact rates the claim “mostly false”

Politifact and The Sydney Morning Herald

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Baby bonus. The needless, dangerous birth boom coming soon

"On Wednesday June 30, 2004 a total of 490 births were recorded.

On the next day, the first day of the baby bonus, the number of recorded births jumped to 978."

Treasurer Wayne Swan is being urged to smooth the “sudden death” end of the baby bonus, due to slump from $5000 to $500 on March 1.

When the bonus was first introduced on July 1, 2004 Australian labour wards experienced their busiest Thursday in three decades. A record 1,005 babies were born on July 1, compared to only 500 the day before, which one of the quietest Wednesdays on record.

Melbourne University economist Joshua Gans found the babies born in July 2004 were significantly more likely to be “overcooked”. Around 680 babies were born weighing more than four kilograms in that month, 140 more than in a typical month. His concern this time is that births will be brought forward.

“Frankly, I think this is worse,” he said from Canada where he is now works. “The delay increased birth weights and I recall one study that showed that could be beneficial. But in this case we are likely to suffer from earlier births meaning lower birth weights.”

Asked at the National Press Club on Wednesday whether he was worried mothers might try to bring forward births to get the bonus Treasurer Wayne Swan replied with a four-word answer: “No, I am not”.

Professor Gans and Dr Andrew Leigh of the Australian National University found mothers varied the timing of their births using cesareans and inductions. Only 42 per cent of births in the final week of June 2004 were cesareans or inductions. The rate jumped to 52 per cent the following week.

“The rates of vaginal birth stay basically flat suggesting that this isn't anything to do with misreporting or crossing your legs, this is all to do with these elective procedures being put off,” Dr Leigh said at the time.

“What worries is that this is coming because the government has set up an incentive to change the timing of your birth. It is a very weird thing and not at all something that seems to be in accord with good public policy.”

Dr Leigh is now a Labor member of parliament, presently parliamentary secretary to the prime minister.

He told Fairfax Media on Sunday he stood by his findings and was working within the government on the question...

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The sudden drop in the baby bonus has not yet been legislated and could be converted to a smoothed phase out without costing money.

Dr Leigh and Professor Gans wrote to the then health minister Nicola Roxon in 2008 urging her to smooth the last planned increase in the bonus. Their pleas were rejected, in part because of “something about the fiscal year,” according to Gans.

“That doesn’t apply this year. No one has ever been able to explain to me why you can't do it more gradually,” he said.

“As I understand it, there are continual political calls for academic research to be more relevant and useful. So we do that research and it is, at best, ignored and, at worst, apparently unwelcome.”

Doctor Andrew Pesce, an obstetrician and gynaecologist at Sydney’s Westmead Hospital said while expectant mothers did ask to have the date of their deliveries optimised, he had never known one to do it in circumstances where it would endanger the child.

“If the baby has some prematurity problems she is probably going to spend a whole lot more than the baby bonus on special care nursery costs,” he said.
 
In today's Sydney Morning Herald and Age


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Forget the fiscal cliff, we were facing a female cliff

We're pulling back

The world is pulling back from a looming shortage of women.

Cheap ultrasound technology and selective abortions in South Korea, China and India have pushed down the proportion of female babies to historic lows making millions of men unmarriageable and sparking abductions of women and sex crimes. In China the number of boys born per 100 girls has peaked at 119. In Korea and India it has hit at 116. The usual ratio is 106.

Now a new study by the US National Bureau of Economic Research has found the worst has passed in Korea, with the ratio back to normal at 106 after hitting 116.5 in 1990.

The authors from Columbia University and Seoul National University “may offer a preview of the demographic future of India and China”, meaning a global female shortage will never eventuate.

Chinese authorities had been predicting an excess of 24 million men over women of marrying age by the end of the decade.

Economists Lena Edlund and Chulhee Lee say increasing wealth in Korea has made boys less important as a means of providing for their parents in old age. It has allowed parents to feel they can sacrifice having a boy in order to have a better shot at getting grandchildren.

“Sons are more productive than daughters, grandchildren through sons are more valued than grandchildren through daughters, but grandchildren through daughters are better than no grand-children,” the authors say.

In Australia there is no clear evidence of what parents prefer, although Sydney IVF reported that before sex selection was made illegal in 2006 those of its customers who made a choice prefered girls 59 to 41...

Australian National University demographer Peter McDonald said the overwhelming concern of Australians seemed to be to balance families.

“The desire to have one boy and one girl is stronger in English speaking countries, it’s a stronger trend that doesn’t occur in other parts of Europe or say in Scandinavian countries.”

His colleague Edith Gray said parents were reluctant to discuss their preferences. “We found people felt very conscious of speaking about it in public. There are lots of taboos surrounding the topic, a feeling we should be happy for a child no matter what the sex.”

Medical tourism company Global Health Travel has helped around 100 Australian couples travel to Thailand for family-balancing IVF treatment in the past year.

Director Cassandra Italia said she gets inquiries from China and India but only helps Australians. “In Australia the preference is fifty-fifty, they’re not choosing just males. Within our company, designing families is not acceptable, we help balance families.”

Packages to the Thai Superior assisted reproductive technology clinic cost $11,000 Australian dollars. With flights and accommodation couples can expect to spend around $15,000. Half of the treatment takes place in Australia, including pre-screening tests, consultation, and ovarian hyperstimulation.

A review of the Australian guidelines is planned this year with many clinicians and patient support groups expected to push for an opening up of Australia’s rules.

Keith Harrison, Scientific Director of the Queensland Fertility Group, believes there is demand from the community. “Opponents will say a significant number of embryos created which will be discarded. You could argue for those embryos to be donated to those who can’t conceive, but donating embryos is another contentious issue. I suspect a middle ground will be reached,” he said.

With Marian Borges, in today's Sydney Morning Herald and Age







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Good news, and bad news. You're more likely to outlive your super

A decade ago an Australian man who had just turned 50 could expect to live another 29.9 years. Today the official figure is 32 years. Even the past year has made an enormous difference. A year ago a man turning 50 could officially expect an extra 31.7 rather than 32 years.

The extraordinary jump in longevity detailed in the new Bureau of Statistics life tables is playing havoc with Australia’s superannuation system. Australians who get their super in a lump sum are increasingly likely to exhaust it before they die, and even Australians who take it out gradually at recommended rates are facing the same fate.

Michael Sherris, professor of actuarial Studies at the University of New South Wales says financial planners don’t understand the risk.

“They’ll sell people what they call superannuation accounts because they let people draw down what they need, but they typically last fifteen, maybe twenty years. While twenty years is what the tables say retirees have left, longevity is improving all the time in a way not fully recognised in the tables and there’s enormous variability about the central figure.”

The life tables released Thursday say a girl born today can expect to live 84.2 years and a boy 79.7 years, but if they survive the first few relatively dangerous decades the figures and higher. Professor Sherris says generational changes and improvements in medicine mean a girl born today is quite likely to live to 100, with about half the girls born this year likely to live beyond 100.

“When their super runs out these people fall back on the pension. For some it’s a sudden drop in income. But they won’t buy lifetime annuities - so called longevity insurance - in part because the annual income it gives them is small.”

Jeremy Cooper who chaired the government’s inquiry into superannuation in 2010 is now an executive at Challenger Limited, one of the few firms selling lifetime support. He says most Australians prefer the “Holden Kingswood” - a product that pays them what they want, until it runs out.

“What they hell do you do when you turn 87?” he asks... “You are still spritely and you think you’ve been frugal, but the money’s just not there.”

“It isn’t so bad for Australians who grew up during the war - they are used to hardship. But for the next wave of retirees it’ll be an awful shock.”

“It’s the biggest problem in our superannuation system. We’re pretty good when it comes to accumulating money, but we mess it up at the end.”

Professor Sherris thinks one of the reasons Australians shy away from longevity insurance is that they get upset at thought they mightn’t live long enough to get what they could. “It’s an odd attitude. When we insure our cars we don’t much mind if they are not damaged and we don’t get a payout, but when we insure our lifetime income we seem to feel cheated if the insurance company keeps the money rather than our families.”

The figures show men born in the Australian Capital Territory likely to much longer than those born elsewhere with a boy born in Canberra facing an even chance of reaching 81 compared to 80.3 in Victoria and 79.8 in NSW. The difference is much less marked for women, with girls in most states likely to live between 84 and 84.5 years.

Indigenous Australians are more than twice as likely to die at any age as non Indigenous Australians. Australians in cities are the least likely to die suffering only 5.6 deaths per 1000 compared to 8.2 per thousand in very remote locations.

In NSW the death rate is the highest in Bourke, Brewarrina, Wellington and Central Darling local government areas. In Victoria, the worst areas are Ararat, Central Goldfields and Nurrindindi.

In today's Canberra Times, Sydney Morning Herald and Age


TECHNICAL NOTE: The ABS life tables are likely to underestimate actual life left in two ways.

1. They ignore cohort effects. They are prepared using death rates for people who have just been a certain age. But the next group of people to be that age will be from a younger cohort and likely to have a lower death rate because of changes in medical technology etc that have already taken place whether or not there are any further improvements in medical technology etc from here on.

2. There may be further improvements in medical technology etc from here on. (Or there might not be. There might even be outbreak of disease that sets things back, but there are usually improvements.)



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Census 2016. Why the questions will be answers in themselves

They'll show how we're changing

You can tell a lot about a nation from its census - not only from the answers but also from the questions asked. Next census for the first time the Bureau of Statistics wants to ask about our second houses, and even our third ones.

“In the old days we all probably had a single house we lived in,” says census data director Jenny Telford. “But now many people have many places they call home. Children live in two houses in shared custody, workers fly in and fly out, many or us have holiday homes.”

The ABS isn’t sure how to word the new question - whether to ask whether there is another place we regard as home, or whether to ask whether there is another address we rest our heads so many nights a month. It’s begun a period of consultation that will last until May.

In 2016 it also wants to ask how we earn our money. Ever since 1911 the census has merely wanted to know how much we earned, on the safe assumption we made it from work. But these days Australians are increasingly earning money from investments and many live on government benefits. The ABS hopes a new question asking how we get our income will give it a handle on what type of people are beneficiaries and what type are investors. Ms Telford says eventually the form might ask us to tick a box to allow the Tax Office to hand over data that will detail dollar for dollar where our income comes from.

The Bureau also wants to ask the sort of questions a society asks when it gets old - who suffers from long-term health problems and where they live.

It also wants to change questions that are being rendered meaningless. "Asking whether your dwelling was connected to the internet made perfect sense when we first did it in 2001,” says Ms Telford... “But now people has iPads, multiple means of connecting to the internet. Our current question doesn’t capture the full picture. We need to work out what it is we want to know. Do we want to know about fixed connections, or about how much people are connecting and what they are doing whiel connected?”

Even the means of asking the questions will offer a window into changing times. The ABS will dispense with the army of 43,000 census collectors, posting letters with login details instead. “We are finding Australians increasingly want to interact with us online, Ms Telford says. “They would prefer not to have us knock at their door. At some homes we can’t get to the front door.”

In today's Canberra Times and Age


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Educated, professional, staying put. The census second wave

Me on ABC Adelaide 891 today

15 minutes, play or CLICK THEN CLICK AGAIN to download mp3







Far from making Australia more dynamic, the mining boom appears to have pushed us back into our shells. The second wave of results from the 2011 census released Tuesday show that in the five years in which the boom was its strongest Australians became less likely to move home and less likely to to work long hours, although keener to study.

An extraordinary quarter of a million of the West Australians questioned on census night had arrived from outside the boom state in the preceding five years. But the census finds the overwhelming majority came from overseas. Only 22,000 came from NSW, 19,500 from Victoria and 19,500 from Queensland.

Nationwide, 84.1 per cent of those surveyed slept in the same house on census night as they had one year earlier, up from 81.3 per cent in 2001 and the highest proportion in decades. A long-term high of 58.3 per cent slept in the same house they had five years earlier.

The proportion of workers who put in forty or more hours a week fell from 47.2 per cent in 2006 to to 45.3 per cent. Women became more important as managers, accounting for a record 35.4 per cent of all management positions in 2011, up from just 28 per cent in 2001. Women also increasingly dominated professional positions, accounting for 53.8 per cent of all professionals, up from 51 per cent a decade earlier.

Some 21 per cent of Australian workers now call themselves professionals, around one in every five. When taken together with managers the proportion is one in every three.

But management is slowly shrinking as an occupation, counterbalanced a rise in the description “professional”. Managers have slipped from 13.3 to 12.9 per cent of the Australian workforce in the past ten years. Professionals have climbed from 18.7 to 21.3 per cent.

The proportion of unskilled workers employed in jobs including cleaning, labouring, process work and food preparation has fallen below one in ten - the lowest on record...

Retailing is no longer Australia’s biggest employer. In the latest census it cedes the crown to “health care and social assistance” which employs health and welfare support workers, carers and aides, hospitality workers, protective service workers and sports and personal services workers. The sector now accounts for 1.17 million workers (79 per cent of them women) after putting on an extra 211,500 in the past five years. By contrast mining remains tiny - directly employing only 176,500 workers in 2011, up from 107,000.

Australians are more educated than ever before. More than 2.3 million now hold at least a bachelors degree, up from 1.4 million in 2001. The number with postgraduate qualifications has doubled from 473,000 in 2001 to 900,100.

Women increased their dominance in higher education, climbing from 53.8 per cent of all degree holders in 2001 to 55.9 per cent in 2011.

Engineering is by far the most popular field of study for men, with 1.4 million enrolled in 2011. Management and commerce was the next most popular (700,806 enrolments), followed by architecture and building (505,352).

Women are most likely to study management and commerce with 1.04 million enrolments, followed by health (677,693), society and culture (671,036) and education (537,607).

In today's Sydney Morning Herald and Age



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Older mums - everything old is new again

Behind the misleading headline

A record 12,800 babies were born to women over forty last year, up from 7100 a decade earlier. But - while recent - the trend to late births isn’t new.

Australian National University demographer Peter McDonald says late births were far more common in the nineteenth century. “Back then a lot of women had more than ten births. They were continually giving birth every two years until well into their forties” he told the Herald.

“Towards the end of the nineteenth century they started to control their births, stopping after a certain number of children.”

“Older births began to grow again about a decade ago, primarily because women had postponing having their first child, which delayed subsequent births. In vitro fertilization has also boosted late births.”

Professor McDonald thinks the drift to later births will soon slow, and the Bureau of Statistics report bears this out. Although the proportion of late births continued to climb last year, the typical age of mothers giving birth fell.

He thinks the paradox is explained by a change in women’s behaviour in the mid-2000s. Instead of delaying births some brought them forward in response to publicity about about the dangers waiting, and perhaps the introduction of baby bonus. Women now typically start at 28 years and 11 months instead of 29 years and four months. In time those decisions will result in fewer women having their later children after forty...

The figures show the government’s decision to cut the baby bonus for second and later children will hit most women giving birth. Around 56 per cent of babies born last year were second or subsequent births. “Most Australian children grow up in families with three or more children,” Professor McDonald said.

In today's  Sydney Morning Herald







The Crunch Data Blog

Peter Martin takes a look into birth statistics and what they tell us about the baby bonus.

They're fair questions. How many babies born last year were first children? And how many were second or later children? We went after the answer with Thursday's release of the ABS births numbers because it would have given us a handle on the number of births who would get the lower $3000 baby bonus announced in the mini-budget for later children instead of the previous $5000.

The ABS hides a "sort of" answer in the "Explanatory Notes" page of its web release. It's Note 51. The proportion of last year's babies who were first children was 43.8%, meaning most of the babies were second or subsequent children. (By the way 1.3 per cent of the babies joined five or more sisters or brothers)

Its a "sort-of answer" because it "excludes births registered in Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania". That's because those states don't collect information on how many previous babies the mother has had, only how many the father has had (including those in earlier relationships).

Given that it is the mother who has the children, the Victorian, Queensland and Tasmanian idea of what constitutes a second or a third seems strange (and certainly won't be used by the government in deciding what size baby bonus to grant).

Will they change it? Probably not? Is the ABS stuck with what it gets from the births deaths and marriages registries? Probably.

But wait. ANU demographer Peter McDonald says the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare has a much better data set it complies at the hospitals from nurses and midwives who actually ask each new mother how many children she has previously had. But it's late. The most recent publication is for 2009. It's also a magnificent source of data, far better than the ABS publication. It details the length of stay in hospital, everything - even the most popular month for births, which is October.

In The Crunch Data Blog


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Play with the census. It's fun and interactive.

Thanks to Marc Moncrief and The Age data journalism team:

First takes

Tim Colebatch: For the first time, most Australians aged 25 to 34 are no longer Christians. Just 49 per cent identified with any Christian denomination - almost half of them Catholics - while 10 per cent declared themselves for Buddhism, Hinduism, Islam or Judaism, 3 per cent professed other beliefs, 29 per cent said they had no religion...

George Megalogenis: Australia is exploding with people and income to the west and the north as the most dramatic census in modern times alters the very idea of who we are as a nation.The resources boom is allowing workers to fly from their homes in Queensland to the mines of Western Australia; the immigration boom is making us more Asian; and Melbourne is on course to replace the stagnant Sydney as our largest city within 20 years...

Shane Wright: Western Australia is the fastest growing State, with nine of the 10 fastest growing local government areas in the country, and West Australians are enjoying the quickest rising family incomes in the nation. The State is also becoming far more cosmopolitan, with huge influxes of people from the Philippines, India and Fiji as well as traditional sources of migrants from Britain, South Africa and New Zealand...

Peter Martin: The census provides an insight into why many Australians feel they are going backwards. The typical household income grew 20 per cent in the five years to the 2011 census. But in the five years before that it climbed 31 per cent. In the five earlier years it climbed 24 per cent. Between-census income growth is its lowest in decades. Inflation is also lower than it has been in decades, making it look as if buying power is holding up. But the really big expenses are soaring. The typical household rent has jumped 49 per cent; the typical household mortgage payment 38 per cent. The mortgage increase is surprising in light of the coincidence that the standard variable mortgage rate stood at 7.80 per cent in both the 2006 and 2011 censuses. The extra payments are the result of extra indebtedness rather than higher rates...

Perth mortgage payments drove up the national total, soaring 54 per cent over five years (while Perth rents soared an extraordinary 78 per cent). Sydney mortgage payments climbed a more sedate 20 per cent, Melbourne payments 35 per cent.

Perth has become a higher-income city than Sydney, boasting a typical household income of $75,868, a touch above Sydney’s $75244 and Melbourne’s $69,316. Darwin and Canberra are by far the highest earning capitals, typically taking in $93,912 and $99,840 per household. Hobart remains in last place with a typical household income of $55,380.

Reflecting the income differences Western Australia’s population grew at the fastest rate in nation, swelling 14 per cent in the five years. Tasmania’s grew 4 per cent.

Western Australia’s East Pilbara was the fastest growing locality, expanding 83 per cent between 2006 and 2011. Almost four in ten residents of the East Pilbra were born overseas, compared to the Australia-wide average of three in ten.

Underline the unusual nature of the regional boom, census executive director Andrew Henderson said Australians typically “associate rural and remote areas with population decline”. The Western Australian trend was “right in the face of that”.

Men make up 76 per cent of the East Pilbra population compared to just below 50 per cent in Australia as a whole. In the 2011 census Western Australia shared with the Northern Territory the unusual distinction of housing more men than women. In every other state women outnumber men.

In today's Sydney Morning Herald and Age


Try this:

Or this great tool from the SBS:

The census site itself is here.

And yes, the ABS did have to set its population clock back.

Before:

After:

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It's census day everybody!

It'll all be here at 11.30 am AEST

And the ABS will reset its population clock. It's got a bit out of whack:

In fact the first small bit of census data released yesterday we have far fewer people.

In December it was 22.5 million people - 300,000 fewer than the clock suggests.

Tim Colebatch has the details.

This and much more at 11.30 am AEST!

Meantime, here's Graeme Hugo on why the census matters

And here's Australian Statistician Brian Pink on the big changes planned for next time

Read more >>

Why is Gina importing workers direct? Because we won't go there

COMMENT

Why was Gina Rinehart given special government approval to bring around 1700 foreign construction workers to Western Australia’s remote Pilbra? Because Australians won’t go there - not in big numbers, no matter how big the mining boom.

The Bureau of Statistics says in the past financial year a net 6163 Australians crossed the Nullarbor to live in Western Australia. That’s a trickle of just 18 Australians per day - slap bang in the middle of the biggest mining boom in a century.

By contrast a net 30,800 overseas migrants streamed into Western Australia - 84 per day. The new workers servicing Western Australia’s mining boom overwhelmingly come from overseas, not because Australians can’t move to Western Australia (there are no legal restrictions on movement between states) but because Australians won’t.

So fast is direct overseas migration to Western Australia swelling that in the most recent quarter for which figures are available Western Australia welcomed almost as many net migrants as NSW, Australia’s traditional gateway.

Asked Friday why when workers were being laid off in eastern states there was any need for Western Australia to import its own an exasperated special minister of state said he would “love workers to come to Western Australia from across the Nullarbor”...

Sadly, “the reality of the Western Australian resources sector is we tend to carry out more successful recruitment across the Indian Ocean than we do across the Nullarbor,” said Gary Gray.

Before taking up his current role as special minister of state Mr Gray was the parliamentary secretary for western and northern Australia. In 2010 he presented the report that recommended the creation of Enterprise Migration Agreements.

The problem it found was huge undersupply of the skilled workers needed to build resource projects, made all the worse because Australians were reluctant to head west. Enterprise Migration Agreements weren’t a particularly important part of the solution. The important things were skilling up Australians, funding a fly-in fly-out coordinator and building affordable housing.

For most projects the existing so-called 457 visas worked well in sourcing skills from overseas. But for a small number of “mega” projects an enterprise agreement struck ahead of time could ensure there was a project at all.

Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill project is the first. It is unlikely to deprive Australian workers of their jobs.

In today's Sydney Morning Herald and Age



Me on JJJ Hack, Monday May 28:

6 minutes, play or CLICK THEN CLICK AGAIN to download mp3




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It's raining men in the West. 'Cos the rest of us won't go there.

Suddenly it’s much harder to find work in Victoria. A year ago there were 3.6 unemployed Victorians fighting for each vacant job. Now there are 4.6.

The dramatically worse odds, revealed yesterday by the Bureau of Statistics move Victoria from being one of the easiest states in which to find work to one of the hardest. Only South Australians, with 4.7 unemployed per vacant job, and Tasmanians with 10.9 find it harder.

The slowdown is the result of a collapse in the number of jobs on offer - from 47,700 a year ago to 40,100 in February - and a jump in the number of unemployed Victorians looking for work from 170,400 to 185,300.

Over the past year the number of Victorian jobs has shrunk 48,500 at a time when the state’s population has swelled 84,000. Victoria’s unemployment rate has climbed from 5.0 to 5.4 per cent.

In contrast the odds of getting a job in Western Australia have continued to improve with only the number of unemployed locals fighting for each vacant job now below two at 1.8.

Although the mining states have the best employment markets, comparatively few of the Australia’s 182,000 jobs on offer are in mining. The ABS says the industry has 9,900 jobs vacant, compared to 12,000 in manufacturing, 14,000 in retail, 16,000 in construction, 15,000 in accommodation and food services and 22,000 in administrative and support services.

Very few of the 31,600 jobs on offer in Western Australia are being filled by eastern Australians crossing the Nullarbor... Other figures released yesterday show in the past year Western Australia’s population climbed just 7000 as a result of interstate migration. It climbed 34,700 as a result of overseas migration.

The direct sourcing of workers from overseas is changing Western Australia’s gender balance. Whereas the rest of Australia continues to have more women than men, Western Australia now has 37,800 more men than women - its widest gender imbalance in a century. West Australian men now outnumber West Australian women in every age group below 70.

Of the 14,000 Victorians who moved interstate in the September quarter, only 2200 moved to Western Australia. Around 4500 moved to NSW and 4400 to Queensland.

Interstate arrivals roughly balanced departures as 5100 new Victorians arrived from NSW, 4000 from Queensland and 2000 from Western Australia.

Victoria sourced most of its population growth from births and migration, gaining 82,600 extra citizens over the year to September, more than any other state. The NSW population grew 76,700, Queensland’s 75,500 and Western Australia’s 60,700. In percentage terms Western Australia recorded by far the fastest population growth, climbing 2.6 per cent compared to Victoria’s 1.5 per cent and Australia’s 1.4 per cent. Tasmania grew just 0.5 per cent.

ABS projections show Victoria’s population climbing from 5.5 million to 8.2 million by the middle of the century and Melbourne’s population climbing from 4 million to 6.5 million.

The Bureau says by 2050 Australia’s population should climb from 22.8 million to 34.2 million. Its highest projection is for a population of 40 million; its lowest for 30.3 million.

In today's Age





If you’re looking for work or looking for men, it’s best to head west. But very few people do.

New job vacancy figures show there are four unemployed NSW residents competing for each vacant job. In Western Australia, the best performing state, there are just two. Only the ACT, with 1.5 unemployed locals per vacant job, does better. But the ACT’s figures are somewhat misleading as many of the people who work and look for work in the ACT live in towns just outside of it.

Western Australia has 31,600 jobs going begging. NSW, with three times the population, has 52,600. But NSW residents aren’t heading west. They are certainly heading interstate. Interstate departures exceeded interstate arrivals 11,800 over the year to September. Out of the 22,000 NSW residents who moved interstate in the September quarter, just 2400 went to Western Australia. Around 9700 went to Queensland and 5100 to Victoria.

In the past year Western Australia’s population climbed just 7000 as a result of eastern state residents crossing the Nullarbor. It climbed 34,700 as a result of overseas migration.

The direct sourcing of West Australian workers from overseas has changed the state’s gender balance. Whereas women continue to outnumber men throughout the rest of the Australia, Western Australia now has 37,800 more men than women - its widest gender imbalance in a century. West Australian men now outnumber West Australian women in every age group below 70.

By contrast in NSW women outnumber men in every age group above 30. There are 64,900 more women than men in NSW.

The NSW population grew just 1.1 per cent in the year to September, well below the national average of 1.4 per cent and substantially below Western Australia’s 2.6 per cent. Although NSW continues to receive more migrants than any other state Western Australia is catching up, recording net migration of 10,800 in the September quarter, not too far below the NSW total of 11,300.

Bureau of Statistics projections show the NSW population climbing from 7.2 million to 9.9 million by the middle of the century and Sydney’s population climbing from 4.5 million to 6.7 million.

The Bureau says by 2050 Australia’s population should climb from 22.8 million to 34.2 million. Its highest projection is for a national population of 40 million; its lowest for 30.3 million.



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How long have I got? Warning: life tables appended

We are less likely to die than ever before, but being indigenous, single or divorced or living outside living outside a city increases the risk.

The latest life tables from the Bureau of Statistics show an Australian girl born today can expect to live until 84, and to 84.3 if she survives her relatively dangerous first year. An indigenous Australian girl can expect ten years less. A boy born today can expect 79 years; an indigenous boy eleven years less.

In the past 20 years the average annual death rate has slipped from 8.6 per one thousand Australians to 5.7

The infant death rate has slid from 8.2 per one thousand live births to 4.1.

The least likely to die men live in Melbourne and on the Gold Coast. Both can expect 80.7 years. The least likely to die women live on Queensland’s Gold and Sunshine coasts. Both can expect just over 85 years.

The first-ever such analysis by the Bureau of Statistics finds cities far safer to live in than regional areas and a lot safer than in the bush with an average annual death rate of around 6 per one thousand compared to 8 in very remote locations.

Marriage seems to be a big help with married and widowed and divorced men and women far less likely to die at any age than men and women who have never been married...

The ABS report says married people "are less likely to participate in risky behaviour and more likely to nurture each other's health through promoting good diet and physical care", although it says it can't rule out the other possibility that healthy people are more likely to marry.

Australians born outside of the country have higher life expectancy in any given year than those within it, the highest being those born in Vietnam, who average only 2.8 chances in 1000 of dying at any age.

Although the ABS tables say a typical boy born today can expect 79 years, one of the highest life expectancies in the world, Australians already at that age needn't despair. The bureau says if you have reached 79 you can expect a further nine years. If you reach 100 you can expect a further two and a half.

Published in today's SMH and Age


HOW LONG HAVE I GOT?

Extra years of life expected

Born this year

Men: 79.5 Women: 84

Age 20

Men: 60.2 Women: 64.5

Age 40

Men: 41 Women: 44.9

Age 50

Men: 31.7 Women: 35.4

Age 60

Men: 23 Women: 26.2

Age 70

Men: 15 Women: 17.6

Age 80

Men: 8.5 Women: 10.1

Age 90

Men: 4.2 Women: 4.8

Age 100

Men: 2.5 Women: 2.7

ABS life tables



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We're being swamped. Less.

Australia’s population growth is plummeting with NSW growing at the slowest rate of any state other than South Australia and Tasmania.

The latest figures show net migration has halved in the past two years, sliding from a peak of 316,000 in 2008 to just 171,000 in 2010 - coincidentally around the target of 170,000 adopted by the Coalition during the 2010 election campaign.

The slowdown comes as Australia is gearing up for a mining boom that will require more skilled workers and at a time when retail sales and house prices are stagnating.

The Bureau of Statistics figures attribute only part of the collapse in net migration to a slowdown in arrivals. Also in play is an explosion in permanent departures to 260,900 last year - a new record high and the first time permanent departures have eclipsed one-quarter of a million.

Detailed figures show the exodus from Australia accelerating with 138,400 residents leaving Australia in the most recent six months, up 13 per cent on the six months before.

“The high Australian dollar means purchasing power is very high abroad,” said CommSec economist Craig James. “Young people can get working visas to the United Kingdom and other places, try their luck, and know there are jobs waiting for them at home if it doesn’t work out"...

The government cut skilled migration places in 2010 exacerbating the slowdown. It has since increased them and the effect will be shown in future population figures.

“We don’t yet know whether they have done enough,” said Mr James. “They only make these adjustments once a year and its often too late. Businesses are crying out for skilled labour.”

Australia’s population grew 1.5 per cent in 2010, the slowest rate since 2005. NSW grew more slowly at just 1.2 per cent, well below Victoria’s and Queensland’s 1.6 per cent, and Western Australia’s 2.1 per cent.

New South Wales and South Australia were the only states to suffer net interstate emigration, with 11,243 locals leaving for other states, most bound for Queensland and Victoria.

Queensland gained 1808 migrants from other states and Western Australia 1315.

Western Australia sourced the bulk of its population growth from abroad taking in a net 18,695 residents from overseas in 2010 in the biggest per capita migration program in the nation.

NSW remained the favourite destination in terms of absolute numbers, taking in a net 51,000 new residents from abroad, around one third of the nation’s total.

Departures from NSW have slowed in lockstep with arrivals from overseas. Only half as many locals left for interstate in 2010 as in 2008.

The fastest growing regions in NSW were centred around Tamworth and Port Macquarie which grew by 2.0 and 1.9 per cent. Sydney grew 1.7 per cent and the Far South Coast 1.6 per cent.

The Bureau's central projection put Sydney’s population at 6.7 million in 2051, up from 4.5 million today. It’s central forecast has Australia’s population at 34 million by middle of the century, with a forecasting range of 30 million to 40 million.

The high projection has Melbourne overtaking Sydney as Australia’s biggest city by 2051, housing 7.5 million residents to Sydney’s 7.3 million.

Published in today's SMH

Leaving NSW: -11,243
Leaving South Australia: -715

Heading for Queensland: +1808
Heading for Western Australia: +1315
Heading for Victoria: +864

Net interstate migration, year to December, ABS 3101.0

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Who'd want to leave NSW? Hordes. NSW and SA suffer net emigration.

SMH

Locals are fleeing NSW at the rate of 50 packed cars per day with the latest figures showing NSW in league with South Australia as the only state to experience significant net interstate emigration.

The official figures show Queensland the destination of choice for NSW departees, taking in half, followed by Victoria taking one quarter and Western Australia one fifth.

The NSW population is growing at the third-slowest rate in the nation. Our birth rate is the second-slowest, ahead of only Victoria’s. Our proud boast of being biggest beneficiary of net overseas migration is no longer true, Victoria overtook us in June 2010.

Only in raw migration numbers does NSW remain an Australian leader, taking in 36,400 overseas arrivals in the September quarter, well above Victoria’s 28,200. But because so many more Australians leave NSW for overseas than leave Victoria, its new migration intake is now bigger.

The picture that emerges from the Australian Bureau of Statistics demographic statistics is of a state Australians move to and leave. Some 19,000 Australians moved to NSW between the June and September quarters as 21,000 left. By contrast Queensland, which also had 19,000 arrivals, suffered only 9000 departures.

Western Australia is by far Australia’s fastest growing state, boosting its population at an annualised rate of 2.2 per cent, followed by Queensland at 1.6 per cent and Victoria at 1.5 per cent. NSW is in forth place at 1.2 per cent, beating only South Australia and Tasmania...

The bulk of Western Australia's population growth comes from overseas A net 6900 migrants moved to Western Australia in the September quarter, and only 1200 Australians.

Australia’s annual population growth rate of 1.57 per cent is the slowest for four years, well down on the long-term high of 2.16 per cent reached at the tail end of the previous mining boom. Net immigration totaled just 185,800 in the year to September, close to the weakest for four years and down 40 per cent on the peak.

“It appears there are both less people willing to move to Australia and more are voting with their feet and moving offshore,” said Commonwealth Bank senior economist Michael Workman. “If the trend continues annual net migration could be headed under 150,000. The government might seek to turn the slide around by boosting skilled migration.”

The slide in population growth comes as the population minister Tony Burke prepares to release a report on a sustainable population strategy for Australia, commissioned at a time when growth was much faster. Both sides of politics eschewed talk of a “big Australia” during the election campaign and in the leadup to it Mr Bourke was briefly titled Minister for Sustainable Population.

In a separate report released this morning (WED) the business advisory firm PKF warns that population growth is slowing as the need for workers is exploding.

PKF national director Matthew Field, says the slowdown means “workers will become harder to find putting pressure on wages, inflation and eventually interest rates as smaller businesses struggle to compete for workers with arger employers”.

The report says the downswing will be most felt in the working age population growth as baby boomers retire, marking the start of a slowdown that could last a generation.

Published in today's SMH


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Dying. It's less likely.

We are less likely to die than ever before. Official figures released Wednesday show Australia's "standardised death rate" adjusted for age has almost halved over the past two decades from 9.1 deaths per 1000 to 5.7 deaths.

Merely assuming that death rate continues the Bureau of Statistics says a boy born today can expect to live an average of 79.3 years, and a girl 83.9 years. Should deaths continue to slide there's every chance a girl born this year will live into the 22nd century.

The Bureau says at the end of last year 1120 Australians were aged 100 and over, the fourth consecutive year the total has exceeded 1000. Over the past two decades male life expectancy has climbed 6 years and female life expectancy 4 years. Anyone who is 100 or over has on average 2.5 to 2.7 years left to live.

Indigenous Australians are far more likely to die than other Australians at any time in their lives.... Indigenous Australians aged under 25 are twice as likely to die, those 25 to 34 four times as likely to die, and those aged 35 to 44 five times as likely to die. Indigenous Australians aged over 65 are only one-third more likely to die than other Australains of the same age.

Published in today's Age


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