Sunday, July 25, 2010

A slow Australia -- let's cut net migration to 170,000


It's Coalition policy:

If arguably meaningless. Net migration is sliding by the quarter.


REAL ACTION ON SUSTAINABLE POPULATION GROWTH

Australia needs a population that our services can satisfy, our infrastructure can support, our environment can sustain, our society can embrace, and our economy can employ.

Australia's population growth since World War II has helped create the prosperity we now enjoy. Successive waves of post-war migration have expanded our capacity as a nation.

Under the Howard Government, our immigration programme enjoyed support from a majority of Australians who were confident that the programme was fair, competently administered, and delivering benefits to the entire community.

Under Labor, migration-fuelled population growth has caused Australians to become increasingly concerned, and to lose confidence in our broader immigration programme.

The hopeless failure of Labor’s border protection regime has further eroded community trust.

Under Labor, net overseas migration has risen to 300,000 people per year, against a long run average of around 140,000 per year.

At this rate Australia’s population would reach 42.3 million people by 2050, significantly above the earlier Intergenerational Report II (IGR) forecast of 36 million.

As a result, the quality of life for Australians living in our major urban areas today is under great pressure.
Fuelling population growth today must not rob future generations of the quality of life and opportunities we currently enjoy. That is what sustainability is all about.

On the eve of an election, Labor politicians have suddenly started to say they no longer believe in a “big Australia” – while cynically trying to put off any decisions on these issues until after the election.

While Labor may have changed its rhetoric under its new leader, Labor’s policies on immigration or population have not changed.

The Coalition believes it is necessary to ease population growth to deliver more sustainable population levels, based on our present and future capacity, so that our infrastructure, services and environment can catch up.

Unlike Labor, the Coalition’s population and immigration policy is clear.

The Coalition will:

1. Establish ‘Guard Rails’ for Population Growth

The Coalition will set clear parameters for population growth by tasking a renamed Productivity and Sustainability Commission to advise on population growth bands that it considers are sustainable.

This recommendation will provide a Coalition Government with the expert advice necessary to establish the framework for setting migration programmes.


2. Take Real Action on Immigration

The Coalition will reduce Australia’s annual rate of population growth from more than 2 per cent under Labor, to our historical long-run average of 1.4 per cent within our first term.

This will require reducing our annual rate of net overseas migration from 298,924 in 2008/09 to no more than 170,000 per year by the end of our first term.


3. Make a Clear Commitment to Skills Migration and Regional Australia.

The Coalition will ensure that two-thirds of our permanent migration programme will be for the purposes of skilled migration.

A Coalition Government will also quarantine the level of employer nominated skills migration and 457 temporary business visas to at least the levels it inherits. In addition, the Coalition will liberalise arrangements for temporary business visas (457s) subject to clear standards, to make them more accessible to business, especially small businesses, and business in regional areas, with proven skills shortage needs.

To address the skills needs of regional areas and small business, the Coalition will encourage the settlement on either a temporary or permanent basis of new arrivals in regional and rural areas.

States such as Queensland and Western Australia will be afforded a high priority for permanent and temporary skilled visa applications.

A Coalition Government would also seek to resettle more entrants from our refugee and humanitarian programme in regional areas, where these resettlement programmes have proved to be highly successful.


4. Establish A Clear and Consultative Process to Restore Control

The Coalition will produce a White Paper on immigration that will reframe the structure and composition of Australia’s immigration programme to address the policy challenges of sustainable population growth.

A Discussion Paper will be released by the end of 2010, with a final paper to be completed by the Coalition’s first Budget in May 2011. This will help inform the composition of the 2011-12 migration programme.

Australians want their government to take control of population and immigration policies to restore confidence and ensure our immigration and population levels are sustainable and in the national interest.

The Coalition’s plan for Real Action on Sustainable Population Growth will restore confidence and re-establish consensus on the benefits of our immigration programme.






Coalition Population and Immigration Policy

TRANSCRIPT OF THE HON. TONY ABBOTT MHR
JOINT PRESS CONFERENCE WITH MR SCOTT MORRISON MHR,
SHADOW MINISTER FOR IMMIGRATION AND CITIZENSHIP AND
SENATOR CORY BERNARDI,
SHADOW PARLIAMENTARY SECRETARY FOR INFRASTRUCTURE AND POPULATION POLICY
PARLIAMENT HOUSE, CANBERRA

Subjects: The Coalition’s real action on sustainable population growth; Leader’s Debate preparation; Penny Wong’s comments on carbon tax.


TONY ABBOTT:

Look, it’s good of you guys to interrupt your debate preparation to come along this morning. Look, last week, for most of the week, the Prime Minister was engaging in a debate about population. It’s impossible to discuss population without also discussing immigration because immigration accounts for about two thirds of our population increase. In fact, it’s fundamentally dishonest of the Prime Minister to pretend that population has nothing to do with immigration. So, today I’m here to launch the Coalition’s 2010 Immigration Policy. I’m pleased to be joined by my friend and Shadow Minister for Immigration Scott Morrison and also by my friend and Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for Population, Cory Bernardi.

Immigration was running at about 200,000 a year in the last term of the Howard Government. Under the Rudd/Gillard Government, immigration has gone up to 300,000. We had 200,000, more or less, under the Howard Government at the time of an unprecedented economic boom, under the Rudd/Gillard Government, we’ve had 300,000, not withstanding the global financial crisis and the associated economic slowdown. 300,000 is just not sustainable. Immigration at this rate is just not sustainable. So the Coalition will reduce net overseas migration to 170,000 a year within our first term. We will maintain though, the various employer nominated categories, because it’s important that business has the skills and the people that it needs.

Most of you may not be aware, but I am a migrant myself. Australia is an immigrant society, proudly so. The Coalition parties are pro-immigrant, but it’s very important that our immigration program have the support of our people and that is what this policy is designed to ensure.

So I’ll now ask Scott to say a few words and then we’ll hear a little from Cory.

SCOTT MORRISON:

Thank you, Tony. The policy we’ve released today is all about one thing and that is about a sustainable rate of population growth and how to achieve it and what can be done immediately to move towards that goal. Sustainability is all about ensuring you don’t deny the opportunities and quality of life that we enjoy today to those generations that follow. That’s what sustainability means and it’s important that we don’t run at levels of population growth, which at over two per cent per year at the moment, are historically high and in recent times, but also historically very high in terms of global population growth, global population growth today is around 1.2 per cent. In the OECD countries, it’s less than one per cent. What we are proposing in this policy is to restore within a first term the population growth rate to 1.4 per cent, which is Australia’s long run average. At that long run average, Australia’s been able to enjoy considerable and great economic success, particularly throughout the 11 and a half years of the Howard-Costello Government, the Coalition Government. So returning those growth levels to that level, within the first term of a Coalition Government would ensure we are meeting the needs of our economy, that most importantly we are meeting the needs of preserving the quality of life, both for current generations and future generations. To just run you through some of the key elements of the programme, in particular where we restate today our commitment made back in April of this year, to establish a Productivity and Sustainability Commission from the current Productivity Commission, whose job would be to set growth bands to advise the Government on what rate of growth we would need to be at in the future from year to year to ensure that we’re growing at a sustainable level.

The Productivity and Sustainability Commission would be basically keeping score on the performance and delivering for infrastructure, services, environmental management, all of these things, to give us the confidence, and most importantly to give Australians the confidence that the rate of growth at which we are setting our migration program and our overall rate of population growth is sustainable. Tony has outlined the position on where we need to get to on net overseas migration and a rate of growth within our term and that’s taking real action on immigration. The Prime Minister cannot have it both ways. She cannot say that she doesn’t believe in a big Australia, and then go onto say that she’s not going to talk about immigration. The only thing that can be done practically, in a most significant way, in the next three years is to remove the population pressure that is forcing the decline in qualities of life of services and infrastructure and the things people are experiencing at the moment. Tony has outlined also that we will be making clear commitments to the areas of the employer nominated program for skilled migration and in the document you’ll also see that we’ve made commitments to give priority to particularly high growth states like Western Australia and Queensland and ensuring that our employer nominated programs and skilled programs, we’re addressing the needs of small businesses and particularly businesses in regional areas. We will establish on coming to Government a process, a white paper process, which will be tasked to identify the rorts, the abuses, the tightening of the program that can be achieved and will be achieved for the Coalition to meet this target. There will be a discussion paper by the end of the year and the white paper process would be completed in time to set the annual migration program in our first Budget.

They’re the commitments that are outlined, it’s a clear policy, it’s not one line in a speech, which we always see from the Prime Minister, it’s a considered policy, it’s a responsible policy that address the population pressures that are being faced mainly by people in our cities around the country.

CORY BERNARDI:

Thank you, Scott. Thank you, Tony. During my responsibilities as the Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for
Population Policy, I’ve consulted widely with Australians in every state and territory and let me just say their concerns are not about, directly about, immigration, they are a very welcoming nation and the people of Australia understand that immigration has played a key role in our foundation and development of our country. But they are concerned about the productivity of our nation, the liveability and the sustainability of our migration program. The Coalition’s come up with a policy that will reflect the concerns, the very real concerns of the men and women of Australia and will ensure that our nation will continue to grow and get stronger in the years ahead.

QUESTION:

Mr Abbott, can I ask you [inaudible], the policy you announced in April, you said that you would delegate the to the Productivity Commission, to set benchmarks, to set targets and Mr Morrison said during the week that you would be confined by what they recommend. Haven’t you just confined them to a target?

TONY ABBOTT:

The Productivity and Sustainability Commission will give us advice about future population levels, which are compatible with economic and environmental sustainability, but it will always be the Government’s responsibility to set the number.

QUESTION:

Mr Abbott, the BIR Shrapnel has already predicted a slowdown in net overseas migration to 145,000 persons by 2011/2012. So are you saying that an Abbott Government, in your first term, would actually have a larger net overseas migration than a Gillard Government?

TONY ABBOTT:

No, I’m saying absolutely not. The interesting thing about the Prime Minister last week was that she was very, very keen to talk about population, but not honest about the role of immigration in population. Now, you cannot have a population discussion without also having an immigration discussion. And you can’t say you are against a big Australia without also discussing the immigration rates. So, what we’re announcing today is a demonstration that we are fair dinkum, that we will back up our talk with appropriate policy. That’s what we’re doing.

QUESTION:

What’s the difference between your policy and Labor’s policy? I mean, BIS Shrapnel is forecasting 145,000 by 2011/2012. So are you for higher immigration? Is this [inaudible]?

TONY ABBOTT:

Look, if Labor wants lower immigration, let it specify a number. They can’t say they’re in favour of lower immigration without specifying a number, and that was the fundamental dishonesty of the Prime Minister last week. She said she wanted to dramatically reduce population growth, without having the guts to talk about immigration numbers. Now, if she doesn’t like our number, she should say so. If she thinks our number is too low or too high she should say what her number is.

QUESTION:

What would the population be, Mr Abbott, under your policy by 2050? What population do you want to see by 2050?

TONY ABBOTT:

Alex, it would be a lot lower than the 36 million nominated by Kevin Rudd as his ‘big Australia,’ and supported at the time by Julia Gillard as Deputy Prime Minister.

QUESTION:

[Inaudible]

TONY ABBOTT:

Well, as Scott said, we would be guided, not ruled, but guided by a White Paper which we would commission shortly after coming to government, and which would inform decisions that would be announced at budget time next year. What we won’t cut, though, are the various employer nominated categories, because we do need skills, business does need to continue to grow, and it’s very important that we don’t put any obstacles in the way of growing business.

QUESTION:

[Inaudible] the Family Reunion Programme, and if so, why shouldn’t Australians be allowed to bring relatives to Australia?

TONY ABBOTT:

Well, again, those sorts of specific details can only be decided in government, and they would be informed by a White Paper process. What we would do is manage the programme to bring it down to what we think are sustainable long-term numbers. But what we won’t do is get in the way of legitimate Australian business that is seeking appropriately to expand.

QUESTION:

How do you know you can hit your target if you can’t say which parts of the programme you’ll cut from?

TONY ABBOTT:

Well, because there are all sorts of different components, and there are some very large components of the immigration programme that if reduced would certainly bring us very swiftly to the 170,000 maximum that we’re nominating. So it’s just a question, it’s just a question of intelligently managing the programme, making sure that all of the entrants in these various categories are fair dinkum. That’s what we did before, particularly under Phillip Ruddock, that’s what we will do again.

QUESTION:

[Inaudible]

TONY ABBOTT:

No, it’s not.

QUESTION:

Yes it is.

TONY ABBOTT:

No, it’s not. No it’s not. Sorry Tim, it’s not.

QUESTION:

[Inaudible] migration programme, it’s the bit that is under the control of government of skilled migration is almost two-thirds, and the rest is family reunion and refugees.

TONY ABBOTT:

Tim, look, I’ll get Scott to take you through very carefully the numbers in the programme, but by far the largest contributor to net overseas migration are student entrants, educational entrants. That is by far the largest contributor. Now, now -

QUESTION:

So you’re planning to cut students? You’re planning to cut students, foreign students?

TONY ABBOTT:

Well, what we are planning -

QUESTION:

That’s the biggest target, right? That’s where you’ll get your bang for the buck, cutting foreign students coming into Australia?

TONY ABBOTT:

What we are planning to do is to get our immigration levels to those which we believe are economically, environmentally, and politically, if you like, sustainable. We need an immigration programme which can be supported for the long term by the Australian people. If we want to be a cohesive, prosperous society we need strong, popular support for the immigration programme, and that’s what this policy is designed to achieve.

QUESTION:

Are you targeting foreign students, and if you are, why would you do that when it is a billion dollar industry for Australia, one of our biggest industries?

TONY ABBOTT:

Look, I am all in favour of Australia selling education, but what I don’t want us to be doing is selling immigration outcomes in the guise of selling education.

QUESTION:

Mr Abbott, the student numbers have been coming down, and the requirements have been tightening. So wouldn’t it be more relevant to take the last financial year rather than 2008-09, and what do you understand the final figure, well, the figures, the projected figures for the last financial year will be?

TONY ABBOTT:

Well, look, Michelle, I don’t have access to official advice. All I can go on is the published figures, and the published figures show that calendar ‘09 it was something like 277,000. So what we are proposing is a reduction of 100,000 on ’09. That’s what we’re proposing. Now, as I said, we’re going to get there sensibly, carefully, with good advice. All we are saying today is that what we’re not going to do is to restrict the various employer nominated categories, because we think that they are important for Australia’s continued economic health. But look, I might ask Scott to say a few words, because he’s more familiar with all of these tables than I am.

SCOTT MORRISON:

Well, the figure that Tony referred to of 277.7 is the calendar 2009. There have been no figures released by the ABS for 2009-10. We don’t have access to that information. No, there’s no estimate, there’s no figures that we’re aware of, that’s been brought to our attention. And the migration program is set on a financial year basis. And the most recent financial year figures that we have available to us is the 2008-09 figures and if you go to the Department of Immigration’s Population Flows document, you’ll find a fairly extensive outline of the program, but ultimately we would have to deal with the 09-10 figures when they’re available and they’re not available today.

Other comments have been made about the BIS Shrapnel forecast. Well, that’s BIS Shrapnel’s opinion, it’s not government’s policy. And if I follow the logic of the questions, if the Government has a secret plan to cut immigration, well, they should say what it is. We’ve been very clear and open and honest here about what our intention is to do in the first term of an Abbott Coalition government, to get…

QUESTION:

[inaudible] 170,000. What’s the thinking behind 170,000? What’s that based on?

SCOTT MORRISON:

It’s based…well, as I said in the opening remarks, our target here is to get the population growth rate to 1.4 per cent. And our estimate is that that requires getting net overseas migration to at least 170,000 by the end of the term. What we’re trying to do here is control and get back to a sustainable level the population growth rate. The population growth rate is what puts pressure on our cities around the country.

Remember, more that nine out of 10 people who come into Australia end up in the cities. The Government can talk til the cows come home about getting people out into the regions and we would pursue policies similar to that but we cannot be unrealistic and disingenuous with the Australian people by suggesting that is a substitute for easing the population pressures on those in western Sydney and other parts of the country. It is just simply not telling the truth.

QUESTION:

…1.4 per cent is your growth target for the next term.

SCOTT MORRISON:

That’s right.

QUESTION:

The Productivity and Sustainability Commission you’ve established, you’ve said that it would set a population growth band of upper and lower levels…

SCOTT MORRISON:

That’s right.

QUESTION:

And would adjust pop…is the 1.4 going to be the upper limit that’s going to have to [inaudible] or the lower limit or the medium limit?

SCOTT MORRISON:

Well, the Productivity Commission, I’m sure, will advise us in due course, Phil. 1.4 per cent, I think, is a very reasonable estimate of what could…well it could be right smack back in the middle of it, or it could even be at the upper end of it, Phil. But we’ll have to wait and see what they say but, what I think the Australian people want…no, let me finish, what the Australian people want to know for us going into this election is where we would take population growth. And we will take that growth level to 1.4 per cent. But we’ll also be getting the Productivity Commission…1.4 is what we’ve given a commitment that it’ll be no greater than, under a Coalition government by the end of our first term. Now, the Productivity and Sustainability Commission will give us advice and they will give us a band, as you know, not a single figure, a band.

QUESTION:

Mr Abbott, why did the Liberal Party endorse David Barker as its candidate?

TONY ABBOTT:

Well, he’s unendorsed. He’s disendorsed. He’s gone, he’s finished. And we now have a new candidate, our new candidate in the seat of Chifley is Venus Priest. She’s a 41-year-old small business person who lives in the area.

QUESTION:

Mr Abbott, [inaudible]?

TONY ABBOTT:

Look, the point is, the point is that attacks on people based on their religion should have no place whatsoever in this election campaign.

QUESTION:

What do you think of Don Randall’s comments yesterday? About Julia Gillard…[inaudible]

TONY ABBOTT:

Well, I just, I’m not aware of Don’s particular comments, but I just want to make it very clear that attacks on people based on their religion have no place in this election campaign and will not be made by me.

QUESTION:

How’s your debate prep going?

TONY ABBOTT:

Debate prep? Look, of course. Who wouldn’t be? Who wouldn’t be? I mean, this is obviously a pretty big day in the campaign. It’s obviously an opportunity for me to put the Prime Minister on the spot for the essential fraudulence of Labor’s campaign so far. The fact that there’s a fundamental dishonesty about all of the things that she’s claimed to fix. The fact that she hasn’t fixed the mining tax, she hasn’t fixed boat people, she hasn’t fixed population, she hasn’t fixed climate change. I mean, all of the announcements that she made in the run-up to the election campaign, and since the election campaign started, are essentially fraudulent.

And while I’m on that subject, and thanks for the opportunity Alex, look, let’s be very clear about this. The Prime Minister’s sub-contracting out of climate change policy to a glorified focus group is a fundamental abdication of leadership, or it is camouflage for the coming carbon tax. And I notice that Senator Wong today said that the Government will not give up on a carbon price, regardless of what this focus group says. In fact, it’s pretty clear from what Senator Wong has said today that basically they’ll keep going back to the focus group until the focus group gives them the answer that they want. And the answer that they want is, there must be a carbon price. In other words, there must be a carbon tax and so I just say again, as I will say every day between now and polling day, if you don’t want a carbon tax, you’ve got the change the government, because as sure as night follows day, if this Government is re-elected, there will be a carbon tax. And what that will mean is fewer jobs, higher prices, pressure on families’ standard of living.

QUESTION:

Mr Abbott, if population is such a concern, and population growth, why was your government telling us, and giving us Baby Bonuses, telling us growth was good for the country, have one for mum, dad and the country? Isn’t this more about people [inaudible]?

TONY ABBOTT:

No, look. It’s…there are obviously a whole range of factors that play into population. Natural increase is significant. And I would like to see our birth rate improve because even now, despite the uptick in the birth rate over the last few years, it’s still significantly below replacement level. But two thirds of the population increase is coming from immigration and it’s got to be sustainable. It’s got to be something the Australian public can support. I want to see a sustainable, supportable immigration program, going into the future because, as I said, I am an immigrant myself. We are an immigrant society. We always will be. That’s a good thing. But let’s have an immigration program that people can support, that they don’t think is out of control. That they don’t think has been sub-contracted to people smugglers. That’s what we want to do, to give the Australian public an immigration program that they know is under our control and is firmly in Australia’s national interests. Thank you very much, thank you.



BIS Shrapnel Population Projections


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