My twelve most read in 2012

Happy reading


1 Mining boom? Not compared to what's to come

2 Labor is wrong. It is the Greens who are mainstream

3 Why we need a carbon tax, by the Coalition's environment spokesman

4 How bad are Australia's unemployment benefits? Bad and getting worse.

5 Truth time. How much has the great big new tax pushed up the cost of living?

6 Why is Gina importing workers direct? Because we won't go there

7 Wrong, wrong, wrong: Gillard, Hockey, Robb

8 Labor's Education Tax Rebate, a bad program buried

9 Remember the census? It's about to change, big-time

10 Earth to Australia - the party's over, you've had time to prepare

11 Joe Hockey defends the culture of entitlement, which he opposes

12 NDIS. Labor is poised for greatness.


And happy 2013!


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My blog is 10 years old, today.

Who'd have thought it?

Here is the first of what have been (so far) more than 3200 posts.

I filed it while I was doodling with BLOGGER at home on the night of Monday September 2 2002:

I had been absent-mindedly exploring Blogger after reading John Quiggin's new blog, started in June, three months earlier. Quiggin was the pioneer, the Grandfather of Australian economics blogging.

As it turned out I was not far behind.

It happened by accident.

The odd thing was that as soon as I had made that post, people on other blogs started pointing to it as if something significant had happened. I hadn't thought so. I hadn't really realised I had started a 'publication'.

At first I used the blog to keep a weekly account of my 'Home Economics' talks with Geraldine Doogue on Radio National's Life Matters. As soon as I had spoken to her I would go into the empty ABC studio next door, open up Internet Explorer and type in the gist of what I had just said while it was still fresh.

Here's my second post:

You get the idea.

I had just returned from Tokyo where I had been the ABC correspondent after 15 years reporting economics for the ABC, most of it as economics correspondent. 9/11 was very fresh in my mind. I moved to SBS to work on the Business Show. Shortly after I started blogging I started writing for the Sydney Morning Herald, then New Matilda. Then I joined the staff of the Canberra Times as its economics editor, and later The Age. Amalgamations mean I now work for all three.

The timing (starting a blog before writing for newspapers) meant that every word I have written for a newspaper is in this blog. I am rather glad.

In his new book about blogging The Rise of the Fifth Estate Greg Jerico points out this makes me unusual - a mainstream journalist with an independent blog. He also has nice words to say about the respect I have accorded to people in the blogosphere. I recommend his book.

I am glad too for the two-way discussion engendered by the blog in comments and emails. It has helped me much more than it has hurt me.

(Although being a broadcaster, two-way conversations took a bit of getting used to.)

Of course the internet has changed in the ten years since 2002.

This fun graphic from Infographic Directory and Best Education Sites reminds of much it has changed. We have TWITTER now. I was a skeptic, at first.

Thanks for being part of the ride. It means more to me than most other things.

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Greatest hits. My most clicked-on twelve in 2011

1 Why we need a carbon tax, by the Coalition's environment spokesman March 07, 2011

In 1990 Greg Hunt co-authored a university thesis entitled A Tax to Make the Polluter Pay. His conclusion: "Ultimately it is by harnessing the natural economic forces which drive society that the pollution tax offers us an opportunity to exert greater control over our environment."


2 Lib costings debacle - "auditors" fined December 01, 2011

The two Perth accountants who costed the Coalition’s 2010 election policies breached professional standards and will be fined, a disciplinary tribunal has ruled. The ruling is an embarrassment to the Coalition which claimed during the campaign the costing was “as good as you could get anywhere in the country, including in Treasury."


3 Super is a con, perpetrated by people who con themselves November 16, 2011

Whatever happens in Europe we can take comfort from the knowledge that our money is being handled by professionals - experts who’ll know what to do. They do, don’t they? It’s about to become more important. Wilful blindness by the government and spinelessness by the opposition have ensured the amount of compulsory super we are forced to hand over to money managers will climb from 9 per cent to 12 per cent of our salaries by the end of the decade. Many of us will have to take out larger mortgages than we would have and hold them for longer in order to feed the money management machine.


4 The carbon tax, the mining tax, they'll kill mining right? May 27, 2011

Neither the mining tax nor the prospect of a carbon tax has made a dent in mining expansion plans with the industry reporting plans that would double spending in the year ahead. Capital expenditure plans collated by the Bureau of Statistics show mining companies intend to lift spending from $35 billion in 2009-10 to $51 billion in 2010-11, an increase of 45 per cent. Plans for 2011-12 suggest a further boost of 63 per cent to a record $83 billion, a figure economists say is almost certainly an underestimate.


5 Abbott needs our help. We need to help him. February 09, 2011

Tony Abbott would make an awful CEO. If he put before a board the "budget cuts" he yesterday put before the public it would throw them back in his face. As a means of funding his determination to abandon the flood levy his cuts would increase the budget deficit in 2011-12 and scarcely change the budget outcome in 2012-13. He told the public his cuts were on top of $50 billion of savings and cuts outlined last year. His board might tell him the correct number is $11 billion, outlined to the public on election eve.


6 News Limited doesn't like ads made by millionaires May 30, 2011

If they are about climate change. Michael Caton is seething inside his two bedroom Sydney flat. “I have a gas heater and two fans - that is me,” he told the Herald after reading the pro carbon tax advertisement in which he features rubbished because it also features a multi-millionaire, the more famous actress Cate Blanchett. Like Blanchett, the star of the The Castle and Packed to the Rafters agreed to front the ads for free. They will air for a week as part of campaign that cost a coalition of groups including the Australian Conservation Foundation and the Council of Trades Unions around one million dollars.


7 Budget reality check. Is $150,000 typical? May 12, 2011

Anyone would think the budget had frozen the income limits for getting family tax benefits at $150,000. Talkback radio was alive with calls about it the day after the budget. Was a family income of $150,000 high or typical? Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey thought it was typical. “$150,000 a year for a family is certainly not rich Australia, it is very much middle Australia,” he told the ABC. “Besides I want people to aspire to earn $150,000 or more.” What the budget doesn’t make clear - but should - is that these cut-offs are already frozen.


8 The Economist broadband survey is a disgrace February 10, 2011

On a few grounds. The graph below understates the present target speed by a factor of 10 and is presented as if the size of public expenditure on the project meant something. In terms of value for money it needn't matter whether the company that is building the thing is publicly or privately owned. What matters is that the project is not a dog.


9 Easy listening. Why power prices are really climbing March 09, 2011


10 We think the rich are too rich, but they're even richer August 29, 2011

When it comes to wealth even the richest among us think the rich have too much - but we’ve no idea of how skewed the distribution really is. A new study finds Australians of all incomes believe the richest 20 per cent of us have around 40 per cent of the wealth. We think that’s too high. The survey finds us oblivious to the far more skewed truth that the best-off 20 per cent have 60 per cent of the wealth and the worst-off 20 per cent a mere 1 per cent.


11 You think the summit's over? The good stuff is just beginning October 19, 2011

Wayne Swan may yet go down in history as the father of a monumental change to the tax system. Not merely the far-sighted, poorly-sold and now emaciated mining tax applying to just four of the originally planned twelve or so commodities, but a truly massive change with the potential to set up Australia for decades to come.


12 Abbott. Economists vote. July 13, 2011

Tony Abbott’s already low opinion of economists is about to sink. Asked a week ago why he thought it was that most economists supported a carbon tax or an emissions trading scheme rather than his own “direct action” plan to tackle climate change he replied: “maybe that's a comment on the quality of our economists rather than on the merits of argument”.


Thanx for reading.


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Welcome aboard Stephen Koukoulas

Stephen Koukoulas describes himself this way:

"I'm an economist who has never been afraid of voicing views on economic policies and financial market trends. I have unique professional experience having worked in Treasury, was Chief Economist (Australia) at Citibank, was advisor to the Prime Minister, wrote for the Australian Financial Review and led the global research team for TD Securities from London."

On Twittter he wrote that he is "not strictly an ALP supporter, just a passionate advocate of good economic policy; which happens to reside with ALP".

I hope he would agree that it doesn't always.

Reading Koukoulas is always worthwhile. Tweeting since he left the prime minister's offfice as @TheKouk, he is now blogging at stephenkoukoulas.blogspot.com.

I've added him to my blogroll --->> (near the top)

He is up there with his sparing partner, renaissance man Christopher Joye, also highly recommended.

And I've added Laura Tingle, whose Friday columns have now been freed from the AFR paywall.

Here's Stephen's latest post:

The IMF for Dummies

Mr Abbott and Mr Hockey are trying to score political points over the Government's objective of boosting funding for the IMF. The comments are at best ill-informed. I suspect they do not have a good understanding of the role and function of the IMF and when they do, they would reconsider their attack.

According to the IMF web page, "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an organization of 187 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world."

"The IMF provides loans to countries that have trouble meeting their international payments and cannot otherwise find sufficient financing on affordable terms. This financial assistance is designed to help countries restore macroeconomic stability by rebuilding their international reserves, stabilizing their currencies, and paying for imports—all necessary conditions for relaunching growth."

Yet Mr Abbott and Mr Hockey are suggesting Australia should not participate in any more IMF funding and loan programs. Egad!

And for Australia's role and involvement in the IMF, this blockbuster speech from Ken Henry in 2003 is apt today.

Enough said.

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The Australian does not follow a party line

Want proof?

A fortnight ago The Australian decided to unmask blogger Grog's Gamut, making a campaign of it.

His blog post that day was his last. (So far)

His final tweet was a retweet from James Massola, the just-hired journalist at The Australian's Canberra bureau who outed him:

RT jamesmassola @GrogsGamut should keep blogging - http://bit.ly/93topu

Sadly ironic, hey?

James and his employer knew it would get Grogs in trouble with his employer - the public service. They as good as boasted about it.

Here's Massola in courageous mode:

"So why did I out Grog if I thought he should keep blogging?

As a prolific blogger and tweeter, Jericho was putting information in the public domain to provoke discussion and debate. It might have been a hobby, but by engaging directly via Twitter with dozens of journalists, Jericho and his views became part of the public debate - and in an age in which the dissemination of information has been democratised, his scribblings had an influence.

But there is a catch to this democratisation. With political influence comes responsibility and the need for accountability, in the same way that journalists are accountable for what they write, tweet and broadcast.

Jericho was anonymous, and public interest in his identity was growing parallel to his influence. In my view - and in the view of this newspaper - the fact he had a partisan point of view, worked in the public service and wrote about his department was a matter of public interest."

What was that James?

"With political influence comes responsibility and the need for accountability, in the same way that journalists are accountable for what they write, tweet and broadcast."

But never accuse The Australian of groupthink.

Because come Monday a week ago there was Henry Thornton, "the nom-de-plume of an eminent independent economist" writing his usual column, a day ahead of the monthly Reserve Bank board meeting.

Look at the snapshot above, click on the link. He gets to keep his identity blurred and gets to keep his day job.

Thornton tries to influence the Reserve Bank board for heavens sake! For all I know he is a director of a public company beholden to banks. As James would say, "his scribblings have an influence".

I do not think he should be outed, but you would think The Australian would if it took itself seriously.

It squashed Grogs because it could. I think it is protecting Henry Thornton precisely because it knows he is actually a person of influence, who it needs.

Oh, and he is conservative as well. Maybe that makes a difference.

In fact the Australian has a long history of using pseudonames, as Restless Capital outlines.

Martin Collins, for years unidentified, took his first name from Martin Place in Sydney and his second name from Collins Street in Melbourne.

Julie Posetti reports that some of The Australian's staff members are phoning the employers of pseudonymous bloggers in an apparent at intimidation.

Hope not. At least Thornton's safe.

The last word - for now - goes to the perceptive Sceptic Lawyer, who herself has a history of pseudonames:

"I dislike the cut-rate conservatism The Australian offers as representative of my side of politics"

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#groggate

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Where do I fit?

I'm the bit highlighted in pale blue:

But step back:

Step back further.

Behold the entire beautiful Australian blogosphere:

The best way to fully appreciate its beauty is to download this very large pdf and roam.


It's from Mapping OnLine Publics.

And it reminds of the Total Perspective Vortex:

The Universe, as has been observed before, is an unsettlingly big place, a fact which for the sake of a quiet life most people tend to ignore.

Many would happily move to somewhere rather smaller of their own devising, and this is what most beings in fact do.

For instance, in one corner of the Eastern Galactic Arm lies the large forest planet Oglaroon, the entire “intelligent” population of which lives permanently in one fairly small and crowded nut tree. In which tree they are born, live, fall in love, carve tiny speculative articles in the bark on the meaning of life, the futility of death and the importance of birth control, fight a few extremely minor wars, and eventually die strapped to the underside of some of the less accessible outer branches.

In fact the only Oglaroonians who ever leave their tree are those who are hurled out of it for the heinous crime of wondering whether any of the other trees might be capable of supporting life at all, or indeed whether the other trees are anything other than illusions brought on by eating too many Oglanuts.

Exotic though this behaviour may seem, there is no life form in the Galaxy which is not in some way guilty of the same thing, which is why the Total Perspective Vortex is as horrific as it is...

The most horrifying form of torture/punishment in the known Universe, the Vortex is a small, featureless steel box, barely big enough for one man to stand in. The hopeless victims stand in the Vortex, and are suddenly shown, for the merest instant, the whole of the Universe: the whole infinity of creation, spanning over several trillion light years, and countless millennia, with an insignificant dot saying "You Are Here".

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No-one should be forcibly reduced to a single identity

Yes, this is a post about #groggate, #massolagate

I have several identities. I have one identity picking up my children at school, another at church, another when I buy a bus ticket, another at work, and so on.

Most of us do.

I wouldn't matter if I used a different name for each. All the bus company needs to know is that I am the person who paid for the ride. The prepaid ticket suffices, no need for a name there. (Bizarrely NSW tollways go further, wanting to know my credit card details and address in a classic example of overreach - the fact that I had bought a prepaid beeper ought to be enough).

Married women often use different names for different purposes, as is their right.

Human beings have two needs when it comes to identity. One is the need to interact with other people, names help here. The other is the need to keep our wholeness to ourselves, not letting everyone know everything about us helps here.

The energy company AGL doesn't get this. It not only demands date of birth info but also a drivers licence number (in defiance of NSW law) in order to get the gas on, not figuring that I would prefer to keep that between myself and the Roads and Traffic Authority.

Many people don't mind being reduced to only one identity, they have no problem with AGL. But many people do mind. No-one should be forcibly reduced to a single identity. It infringes what I and others believe to be a fundamental right - to only share with others what is needed in order to achieve what we want to achieve.

"Outing" homosexuals to their employers breaches this right. "Outing" a blogger using a pseudonym such as Grogs Gammut to his employer breaches this right.

George Orwell warned of a world in which this routinely happened. News Corporation believes in it. Phone taps, anyone?

James Massola's defence of his action in stripping bare Grogs Gammut is here. He asks "So why did I out Grog if I thought he should keep blogging?", fails to provide a compelling reason and then adds wistfully "I don't want him to lose his job."

Stephen Spencer of Channel 10 (who has other identities in other contexts like us all) writes:

It serves the interests of the gallery and various news outlets. He's silenced and anyone else who speaks out is now on notice.

I agree. For the record, I will never give away the other identities and occupations of the pseudonymous bloggers who routinely interact with me. I am deeply saddened.


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My most popular posts in 2009

Not necessarily my top ten,  but the ones you selected with your clicks:

1. So, who exactly is Andrew Charlton?

2. SATURDAY INSIGHT: Our problems are worse - much worse

3. The letter that leaves Turnbull naked

4. What if Joe Hockey is Julie Bishop in new clothes?

5. Recession: Access Economics breaks the dam

6. Could Australia's unemployment rate hit 10 per cent?

7. Why not axe dividend imputation? Henry gets serious.

8. The ABS busts a new urban myth

9. IT'S FAILED! The Senate has just rejected the stimulus package

10. Enjoying the ride?


Oh, and still very popular from earlier years:

1. Tuesday column: Births, conceptions and deaths. Money changes everything.

2. Rory Robertson vs Steve Keen

3. Lehman and AIG - What happened?

4. The Prime Minister's gripping, well-judged Sorry speech


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The top 25 Economics Blogs

...as assessed by the Wall Street Journal

Not an Australian one among them, I think.

Read more >>

Comments Policy

I don't have one. Apart from the obvious. I delete spam and abusive comments (of anyone).

But the Prime Minister does, and how!

"Users who wish to comment on the Prime Minister’s blog will need to register.

Your registration information is not for publication and will not be stored with the record of the blog. By registering and contributing to the blog, you give permission for your comments to be posted on the site, and for us to contact and invite you if other online forums are held on the PM’s website.

In order to facilitate discussion registered users will be asked to provide a unique screen name to serve as their identifier during discussion. Please note, screen names will be limited to 20 characters and screen names which breach the Protocols for Participation will be rejected.

Once registered just head to the latest PM’s Blog and post a comment in response after the Prime Minister commences the blog.

Comments are limited to 300 words or less. Each Prime Minister’s blog will be open for comments five business days from the date of its publication.

All blog comments will be subject to moderation. The purpose of moderation is to ensure that the discussion does not include offensive or discriminatory language and to keep the discussion on topic. Moderators will check all comments against the published blog comment rules and approved guidelines for moderation. For more details, please see our Moderation Policy and Protocols for Participation outlined below.

We welcome your participation in the blog. To ensure that your contribution meets legal requirements and the discussion stays on track, all comments posted to the blog will be moderated according to the Protocols for Participation set out below.

Blog posts that do not comply with these protocols will not be published and contributors will receive a message inviting them to resubmit their comments in a manner that complies with the protocols. Moderators will not edit comments. Contributions will only be moderated in accordance with the protocols.

Moderation and publication of comments will take place during business hours, Monday to Friday, 9am to 5pm. While users may submit comments at any time, comments will only be processed and posted during business hours. We undertake to moderate all posts within 24 hours of receipt.

The intent of the Protocols for Participation is to create a positive environment where people are able to publicly contribute their views to the consultation forum, in the spirit of having input to government policy, without fear of abuse or harassment or exposure to offensive or otherwise inappropriate content and protecting the operators of the consultation forum from legal liability.

Talking in the Prime Minister’s blog is like a physical meeting, so normal social conventions apply. Help us to keep the conversation on topic, by being polite, constructive and respectful of others.

By registering and contributing to the blog, you give permission for your comments to be posted on the site, and for us to contact and invite you if other online forums are held on the PM’s website.

When contributing your views to this blog, please ensure that you:

do protect your personal privacy and that of others by not including personal information of either yourself or of others in your posts to the forum, (such as names, email addresses, private addresses or phone numbers);

do post material to the forum that is relevant to the issues currently being consulted on;

do represent your own views and not impersonate or falsely represent any other person;

do not abuse, harass or threaten others;

do not make defamatory or libellous comments;

do not use insulting, provocative or hateful language;

do not use obscene or offensive language;

do not post material to the forum that infringes the intellectual property rights of others;

do not post multiple versions of the same view to the forum;

do not promote commercial interests in your posts to the forum;

do not include internet addresses, videos, images or links to websites, or any email addresses, in your contribution; and

do not post overtly party political comment (eg. reference to candidates, fundraisers, support for political parties)."


I love the bit about nothing "overtly party political"

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The Peter Martin wonderwheel

It's here, at Google.

They've added new search features, for everyone

Read more >>

Opera is 15!

And it is celebrating with a cartoon

HT: Life Hacker (click to enlarge)

Read more >>

So. You're reading this at work

It's helping you!!!

“People who do surf the Internet for fun at work - within a reasonable limit of less than 20% of their total time in the office - are more productive by about 9% than those who don’t."

“Firms spend millions on software to block their employees from watching videos on YouTube, using social networking sites like Facebook or shopping online under the pretense that it costs millions in lost productivity, however that’s not always the case.”

So finds Dr Brent Coker from the University of Melbourne.

Read more >>

New Kids

Until now I've avoided extending my blogroll.

A blogroll that's too long is no blogroll at all.

However there are new kids on the block (or at least new to me).

I have added, and offer for your consideration:

Bill Mitchell - the Newcastle University iconoclast

Christopher Joye - the financial entrepreneur who hardly sleeps

Steve Keen - the debtwatcher who sees Emperors unclothed 

Andrew Leigh - unmuzzled after a 6-month vow of  silence at the Treasury, and

David Uren - actually this is a brand new 3-person blog with Uren, Michael Strutchbury and Scott Murdoch from The Australian, entitled Current Account.

All are available on RSS. 

While on the subject, 2 blogs on the roll are actually multi-contributor blogs.

You get great value from what I misleadingly label the Joshua Gans site and the Nicholas Gruen site - though they would be value indeed with those contributers alone.

Happy reading.

Read more >>

Joshua Gans is getting serious

(I've never seen him that well dressed)

Until Monday Joshua Gans was a solo blogger

(like John Quiggin and Andrew Leigh before he took time out to work at the Treasury)

Now he's part of a team

(like Nicholas Gruen)

As he said, "not only is it change you can believe in, it is change that is here, right now and at least a day before the other change".

"Core Economics is going multi-author. There will be eight, regular and semi-regular writers. All of them are academics and most are economists. Let me introduce them to you..."

Stephen King is my long-time collaborator and has, for the past four and a half years, been a commissioner with the ACCC. Today, he takes up a new post as Dean of the Faculty of Business and Economics at Monash University and so is now free to comment publicly on all issues. Stephen is also returning today as my business partner at CoRE Research. Despite his administrative duties, I expect Stephen will be a daily contributor to the blog.

Mark Crosby is an associate professor in economics at Melbourne Business School. Mark specialises in macroeconomics and we definitely need more of that expertise right now. Mark also is a regular commentator in the media.

Kwanghui Lim is a senior lecturer in strategy at Melbourne Business School. Kwang is not an economist but it is hard to tell from the rigour of his research. Kwang specialises in technology strategy and entrepreneurship and has a vast working knowledge of technical issues related to IT. Kwang will add to the technology commentary that I dabble in on this blog.

Sam Wylie is a senior fellow at Melbourne Business School and a specialist in banking and finance. He has been a regular commentator in the Australian media during the financial crisis and I imagine will continue to provide that commentary here.

All of these authors reside in Australia. But I also figured that some Australians who were academics abroad might, from time to time, want to comment on Australian issues. Happily three of them have agreed to become authors at Core Economics:

Richard Holden is an assistant professor in economics at Chicago's Booth School of Business. Richard specialises in contract theory and applied game theory. His undergraduate education was from the University of Sydney.

Christine Neill is an assistant professor in economics at Wilfrid Laurier University (Ontario, Canada), where she spends most of her research time studying university financing, student aid policies, and individual's education decisions. Like me, she gained her undergraduate education at the University of Queensland and also, like me, she is a co-author of Andrew Leigh.

Justin Wolfers is an associate professor of economics in the Business and Public Policy Department at the Wharton School. Unlike everyone else added today, he is no stranger to blogging, holding a treasured regular slot on the New York Times Freakonomics blog. Core Economics will provide an outlet for Justin to comment on Australian issues as he has done so often in the media in the past."

Wow! It's way serious competition. Which is great.

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Comments on commenting systems please

Commenter Kevin tells me:

Peter if you want more comments then I suggest you move to a better blog comment tool. It is too hard to put up comments and this is the second time I have tried to enter this short one.

Commenter Bring Back the EP says the same thing.

My question, to anyone who can navigate Blogger2's comment system - what is the best one to use (that works with Blogger2)?

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