So you think the "plain packaging" isn't getting to you... (video)

nomorehiding.com.au, via mumbrella

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A win for Nate. A win for reality.

@jsmooth995

And boy has there been an assault on reality.

In his Andrew Olle lecture Friday night ABC broadcaster Mark Colvin described what's been happening this way:


"I'm talking about the way people can create their own reality stream.

It's particularly far advanced in America, because a quarter of a century ago they abandoned the fairness doctrine, a federal regulation which mandated a degree of balance on the airwaves.

So now you can run a creationist channel that rigorously excludes Darwinists from the airwaves - you can say again and again that Barack Obama was born in Kenya, and refuse even to look at the documentary evidence, and so on.

In 2004, the writer Ron Suskind wrote a famous piece in which he quoted a Bush aide - reliably believed to be Karl Rove - as follows:

"The aide said", wrote Suskind, "that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." ... "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality judiciously, as you will we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors;and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

I imagine most of us here tonight would categorise ourselves as the reality based community, but we too are beleaguered."


New York Times data geek Nate Silver was feeling beleaguered.

A few days back Paul Krugman took up his story:


"For those new to this, Nate is a sports statistician turned political statistician, who has been maintaining a model that takes lots and lots of polling data — most of it at the state level, which is where the presidency gets decided — and converts it into election odds. Like others doing similar exercises Nate’s model continued to show an Obama edge even after Denver, and has shown that edge widening over the past couple of weeks.

This could be wrong, obviously. And we’ll find out on Election Day. But the methodology has been very clear, and all the election modelers have been faithful to their models, letting the numbers fall where they may.

Yet the right — and we’re not talking about the fringe here, we’re talking about mainstream commentators and publications — has been screaming “bias”! They know, just know, that Nate must be cooking the books. How do they know this? Well, his results look good for Obama, so it must be a cheat. Never mind the fact that Nate tells us all exactly how he does it, and that he hasn’t changed the formula at all.

This is, of course, reminiscent of the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics — not to mention the attacks on climate science and much more. On the right, apparently, there is no such thing as an objective calculation. Everything must have a political motive.

This is really scary. It means that if these people triumph, science — or any kind of scholarship — will become impossible. Everything must pass a political test; if it isn’t what the right wants to hear, the messenger is subjected to a smear campaign."

Nate - for the most part - failed to strike back, or back away from his assessment (one arrived at by calculations rather than judgments by the way, like in Moneyball).

The end result? Darn near exactly what he predicted:

Reality (specifically, data) triumphed over people who preferred to choose their reality.

As Jon Stewart said last night: "This was the historic election between arithmetic, and belief. And belief wasn’t going down without a fight."

Watch the full eight minutes. It's worth it.

Essential reading:

. The war on Nate Silver, the after-action report - Brad DeLong


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Rebranding South Australia. No joke.

Apparently on some US maps of Australia there's no place called Adelaide:

So there's to be a re-branding SA campaign. No joke.

It's at brandingsouthaustralia.sa.gov.au - naturally.

Meanwhile...

YOU KNOW YOU'RE FROM ADELAIDE IF...

You meet people at the 'Malls Balls'

You consider 40 degrees to be a bit warm

You drink Farmer's Union Iced Coffee

You drink Coopers

And you know It's the best beer in the world

You've been to the brewery lights's

You've eaten a Balfour's frog cake

You know that a Berliner is something you eat

You like YoYo biscuits

You grew up on Fritz & sauce sangas

You know it's a 'yiros', not a 'kebab'

You can drink SA tap water without noticing any unpleasant flavours

You've been to the Pancake Kitchen (open 24 hours)

You call the corner store a 'deli'

You pronounce graph as 'grarph', plant as 'plarnt' and dance as 'darnce'

You know that Victor Harbor is the only place to be for Schoolies.

You went to school camps as the Red Shield Aquatics Camp in Victor Harbor

You know where 'Porta Gutta' is

You have been to the club formerly known as Heaven at least once (and you were under 18).

You have been to Flashdance at HQ at least once

You've started the night on the East End then drunkly walked through Rundle Mall in the early hours to get to the West End (or vice versa)

You know that there's more than one way to have a good time on Hindley Street

Pints are the big beers

After a big night you've ended up at 'The Cas'

You've been to the museum on 5 different school excursion but never returned as an adult

You've been to the St. Kilda playground

You miss Magic Mountain at the bay

You know that 'the bay' is Glenelg

You would never swim at Glenelg because it's gross

You have been to Glenelg and got extremely sunburnt

You know the state floral and fauna emblem (but just in case it comes up at a quiz night)

You still call AAMI Stadium, ' Footy Park '.

You support the Crows/the Power

And you'd rather give up your first born than see the other team win the flag

You know the South Australians invited the checkside punt

You have a very strong opinion on Lleyton Hewitt

You forgave the Chappells for the 1981 Underarm Incident purely out of South Australian patriotism.

Your 'sports gurus' are KG and Cornesy

You've never watched NRL

You've been to the Christmas pageant as a child and as an adult

You've lined up for more than half an hour to see Santa at the Magic Cave

You've bought something from the pie cart

You know what a pie floater is

You've eaten a pie floater

You can't go out without seeing someone you know

You shop at Foodland

You have a Hills Hoist in your backyard

You know the Hills Hoist was invented in South Australia as was wine casks, penicillin and the retractable seat belt

At least half of your neighbours were born before 1950

You can leave work at 5:15 and miss 'peak hour traffic'

Your definition of 'peak hour' traffic is more than 5 cars at a red light

You're always running late because the public transport system is so old

You know and love the sound the ticket machine makes on public transport

You feel like punching the next person who calls it the City of Churches

You walk past at least 5 churches on your way to work

Seeing a large, Aboriginal man walking around town in a leotard and gum boots in the middle of winter does not surprise you

You know his name is Johnny

You know who Stormy Summers is

You think the 'Tiser has no journalistic integrity whatsoever.... And yet you still read it every day.

You remember John Martin's

You've been on the Pop-Eye

You know the people out on the Torrens are either tourists or rowers. No one else would go near that water.

You know where beehive corner is

You hate the new tram

You think the Festival Centre is a wonder of modern architecture.

You've used the term 'minda' as an insult

A pale/palie is a Coopers Pale Ale

You've saved up your bottles and cans from a big night out, collected the 5c deposit and then used it to buy more beer

You know what a 'stobie pole' is

You say 'heaps good'

One of the first questions you ask a person is where they went to school

You have the same friends from high school

You don't like Victorians

They stole our Grand Prix

Your dads best friend friends next door neighbour knows some one in the Hells Angels that can get stuff.

You acknowledge that, while half of our state is uninhabitable, you know that it's still the greatest.

You console yourself that, despite all our faults, at least South Australia wasn't built by convicts.

You understood and laughed at this list

You live in South Australia

And you'll probably die here too

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How to... get to Mars

You really wanted to know







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2011. Goodbye to all that.

From Associated Press.

Enjoy, if that's the word:





Oh, and here are the 45 Most Powerful Images of 2011.

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ANZ leaves the others gaping. But what if they did talk among themselves?

Chirs Joye has a video.

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Mining companies, as seen by the AMWU

Oh, and try this:

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Fun at work. What news presenters do during commercial breaks

Chicago WGN News anchors Robert Jordan and Jackie Bange. They're still at the station!

HT: Nick Gruen



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Why gold? Why indeed. Here's the video:

Planet Money at NPR:

"For thousands of years, people used gold as money. But why gold? Why not some other element? We tracked down an expert to find out."





Here's more on why gold beat Lithium, Osmium, Einsteinium...

While we are at it, what is GDP:





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The European bailout, explained

This is soooooo good!



HT: Graham Matthews

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We're the most evolved, apart from Norway

Human Development

We’re second best - almost but not quite the best place in the world in which to live according to the latest United Nations human development index.

Norway pips us by a flared nostril. Australia scores 0.93 on a scale of 0 to 1 where 1 is the highest score possible. At 0.94, Norway’s margin over Australia is close to invisible.

Not so for the poorest scorer in the UN’s ranking of 187 nations. The Democratic Republic of the Congo gets a score of 0.29. The UN says the average length of schooling there is 3.5 years. Life expectancy at birth is 49 years.

The Human development index is made up of life expectancy, years of schooling and gross national income per capita. Australia scores spectacularly well on life expectancy with 82 years, second to only Japan which has 83. We are also up there with the leaders on years of schooling. The only thing Norway has that we have much less of is income. At $US47,600 per head Norway leaves Australia’s $US34,400 per head in the shade. If it weren’t for the income measure Australia would be ranked the most developed country int he world. The UN says so. It gives Australia first place in its measure of “non-income human development”.

As it happens a good many of the nations surveyed by the UN make more per head than Norway, but it finds them poor models of development. The citizens of Qatar earn $US107,700 per head, but stay in school an average of seven years. Even Singapore where they earn $52,600 per head can boast only 10 years at school.

Many of the countries we are used to comparing ourselves with perform poorly... The United States has a lower expectancy. The United Kingdom has an average stay in school of nine years.

We are among the most satisfied citizens on earth, typically giving a figure of 7.5 when asked to rate our satisfaction with life on a scale of 0 to 10. Denmark, Canada and Norway are more satisfied, but in the US and UK they are more miserable with scores of 7.2 and 7.0.

The high income residents of Qatar and Singapore would be happier here. Their satisfaction scores are 6.8 and 6.5, despite incomes up to many times ours.

Generally though happiness does follow income. The low income nations of Burundi, Hati and the Congo each have a satisfaction score of 3.8.

We are not a particularly equal society (Norway’s income distribution puts us int he shade) and far from impressive when it comes to equality of the sexes. On gender equality Australia is the 18th ranked nation in the world, behind the first-ranked Sweden, a slew of European nations, the Korea and even Italy.

Pushing us down in the gender rating is our teenage fertility rate (16 in every 1000 teenage women give birth, far more than most European nations but good deal less than the United States) and our placement of woman in parliament. The UN says 28 per cent of our parliamentary seats are occupied by women, a ranking well below Norway with 40 per cent, and New Zealand with 34 per cent.

The UN says the worst places in the world to live are in Africa. The bottom five are Chad, Mozambique, Burundi, Niger and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Their relative positions were little changed in this survey as were those of the top five, Norway, Australia, the Netherlands, the United States and New Zealand.

Published in today's SMH






Guardian interactive map:









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The cash rate is low, mortgage rates are not

The graph sets it out

Two of the big four banks have passed on in full the Reserve Bank’s 0.25 point Melbourne Cup Day rate cut and the others are set to follow within days.

The cut in the Reserve Bank’s cash rate from 4.75 to 4.50 per cent will take Westpac’s standard variable mortgage rate to 7.61 per cent and the Commonwealth Bank’s to 7.56 per cent, slicing $49 from the monthly payment on a $300,000 loan.

If the National Australia Bank also cuts by 0.25 points its standard variable rate will drop to 7.42 per cent, the lowest of the big four and the first below 7.5 per cent in a year.

The Reserve Bank last adjusted rates on Melbourne Cup Day 2010, inching them up 0.25 points because of concern about inflation, but each of the big banks passed on more, the Commonwealth Bank pushing up its mortgage rate by almost twice the Reserve Bank move sparking outrage among customers and talk by the Treasurer of tough moves to reign in the banks.

Those moves mean that even though the Reserve Bank’s cash rate is back to where it was, the big bank’s official rates remain much higher, although discounting means new customers can expect a better deal if the shop around.

The Commonwealth Bank cut comes into effect Friday, Westpac’s a week later.

A $300,000 mortgage holder will be $5000 per year better off than when mortgage rates peaked at 9.6 per cent before the financial crisis and $5400 worse of than when mortgage rates hit 5.1 per cent in the depths of the crisis.

Neither of the two banks has announced a cut to its less politically sensitive business and credit card rates, each saying they are “under review”.

The Reserve Bank statement characterises the cut as a one-off... omitting the usual reference to rates remaining under review, saying instead rates are now “consistent with achieving sustainable growth and 2 to 3 per cent inflation over time.”

The bank cut because underlying inflation has moved back to the middle of its target band, allowing it to adjust setting from “mildly restrictive” to “more neutral”. Previously alarmed by the inflation outlook it is now forecasting inflation consistent with its target band for the next two years “abstracting from the impact of the carbon pricing scheme”.

The Bank believes commodity prices have peaked, taking some pressure off off the economy. Its monthly commodity price index released after the meeting was down 3.9 per cent.

The futures market is pricing in an 80 per cent probability of a further cut in December.

The dollar slid three quarters of a cent to 104.47 US on expectations of further cuts. It
lost a further cent in early European trade, sliding below 103.50 US.

“Effectively the Bank has admitted it it got it wrong,” said Commonwealth Securities economist Craig James. “In August it was set to hike rates, but it has become abundantly clear inflation is under control and financial conditions have been tighter than necessary.”

“The Bank has now moved back to a more neutral stance – that suggests rates could move either way in coming months. If rates are moving anywhere in the short term, clearly it’s down, rather than up.”

Published in today's SMH and Age





State & Territory Breakdowns



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Remember when Tony and Julia loved each other?

Sigh! Thanks @annabelcrabb

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The economic history of the world in four astounding minutes

From Sylvia Nasar, whose new book Grand Pursuit: The Story of Economic Genius tells the story of modern economics.

Thanks Justin Wolfers, Greg Mankiw, Daily Beast


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The Economics of Happiness movie

It's got a great title.



And it features our own Clive Hamilton.

Details here: theeconomicsofhappiness.org

It premiered in Australia last night in Brisbane. It screens tonight and Tuesday in Melbourne, then then Thursday in Sydney. Details here.


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Oh wow. Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two, on video

Settle in.




This was Round One:




And here's the planning for Round 2:




It's all here at Econstories.tv


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First Bob and Blanche, now Ita and Kerry - the telemovie.

Coming soon to ABC1:



HT: Mumbrella


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Pick the cutest animal. It's an economics experiment, really.

Actually, you've got to pick the animal you think other people will think is the cutest.

Then go here to vote.











It's in the name of science, apparently.

HT: Econgirl


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