Monday, March 05, 2007

Tuesday Column: Paying teachers for performance

Who’d want to be a teacher? Whether it’s back to basics, a national curriculum, or the latest: payment by results, politicians are forever drawing up new schemes designed to help teachers teach better.

Payment by results, apparently up for discussion at an education summit convened by the minister Julie Bishop next month, is particularly insulting.

The inference is that teachers aren’t being paid to deliver results at the moment.

Of course not everyone finds such an idea insulting. Australia’s chief executives, among them those whose performance has been the worst, seem to love it.

A few years back I was at the annual general meeting of Bluescope Steel, at the time chaired by Peter Smedley then lorded as a business genius for his stewardship of the Mayne health and logistics group, since broken up.

An elderly shareholder sitting near the back asked him why he felt the need to pay his chief executive a performance bonus on top of his salary.

Smedley replied in what I took to be a condescending tone that that in fact the chief executive received three salaries: a wage, which he said was a payment “for turning up”..., a short-term bonus for keeping the share price high in the short-term, and a long-term bonus for keeping it high in the long-term.

I thought it disturbing that one of Australia’s major public companies would pay its chief executive a six or seven figure salary “for turning up” – Smedley’s exact words – and I think that’s what disturbs me now about the idea of paying teachers extra for “performance”.

That, and the fact that performance is hard to measure.

Auditors love to tell this story: When Sydney had a problem with its trains running on time it collected statistics on every arrival and departure from every platform and compared it with the timetable. Drivers were instructed to more closely match the timetable. So they shot past stations without picking up passengers. I know, it happened to me. But it improved the drivers measured “performance”.

Auditors call this a misspecification – picking the wrong target.

But it wouldn’t happen in teaching would it? After all, the results of teaching can be measured quite precisely at the end of each year in standardized tests.

Well, yes it would.

The state of Iowa in the United States has been measuring primary school teaching outcomes for decades now as part of the Iowa Test of Basic Skills.

In 2002 a University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt played a hunch. Examining the test results for the eight years to 2000 he noticed that some teachers seemed to always to improve the academic performance of every class they taught. But those students seemed to regress to where they had been as soon as they moved on to different teachers.

Using high-level statistical analysis he concluded that 4 to 5 per cent of teachers in Iowa had cheated by “adjusting” the answers of their students after those students had completed the exam papers. (It helped that students were given pencils with which to complete the exam papers and that pencil is easily rubbed out.)

I have experienced a lesser form of teacher cheating myself. Many universities now ask students to grade their tutors at the end of each semester. Sitting in on a tutorial for a student who was ill I saw the tutor hand around biscuits and tell the class how much he loved each and every one of them before distributing the evaluation forms.

One of mantras chanted by those in the United States administering the No Child Gets Left Behind program which links school funding to test results is that “What gets measured, gets done”.

Critics of this type of program say that that is its weakness.

Its supporters in Australia may be surprised to know that it has been tried here before. I certainly was.

Last week the ABC’s Background Briefing radio program searched back into history to outline the results of the Victorian education department’s “Payment By Results” program introduced in the 1860’s.

Education historian Professor Richard Selleck explained that each Victorian teacher received a base salary, and then an extra salary dependent on the results that their children got (in much the same way as would Australian CEO’s more than a century later).

Inspectors would come into primary school classrooms and set and mark exams. The percentage that each class got in the exam would feed directly into the teacher’s performance pay.

As Selleck said: “In one sense when you went into a classroom, you were looking at your financial future, if you were a teacher.”

So teachers worked to ensure that their students did well.

As Selleck put it: “Teachers studied minutely the questions each inspector was likely to ask in reading, writing and arithmetic, whatever the course was. They passed them on to each other, they reduced their curriculum to the narrowest one possible, abandoning subjects that were not going to be examined and concentrating almost entirely on what was examinable.”

On AM last month the Education Minister Julie Bishop described the evidence to support performance pay for teachers as "overwhelming". She promised to release that evidence ahead of her April summit with state and territory ministers.

The most persuasive-sounding evidence to date comes from the Department of Education Reform at the University of Arkansas. It has examined the fledgling merit pay scheme in Little Rock, Arkansas funded by the Walton family which owns Wal-Mart. It finds that it has boosted maths results by 4 percentage points above those of schools without performance pay.

But it has come in for criticism. The associate editor of the Arkansas Times, Warwick Sabin put it this way on Background Briefing:

“Well I'll be very blunt with you. The Department of Education Reform at the University of Arkansas is only about a year old and it was established with money from the Walton family, which has a very public interest in pushing merit pay… They did not pick schools that already were performing very well, because those schools would not produce the improvement that the merit pay advocates would like to see.”

Merit pay may well have some merit. But until Julie Bishop releases the evidence she has assembled, we will have to be content with the publicly available evidence, which is far from conclusive and points to pitfalls. Many of us would be reluctant to entrust our children to teachers who were focused almost exclusively on measurable results.

The ANU economist Andrew Leigh is one of Australia’s leading proponents of performance pay for teachers. But, in apparent contrast to the minister, he is aware of its potential limitations. He says that designing a good merit pay system is hard but not impossible.

He told me that if he was advising the minister he would be suggesting setting up a series of different trials, using different methods of rewarding different types of performance in different schools. He says then we would know what education authorities in Little Rock and elsewhere still do not – whether rewarding teachers for performance works as well or better than rewarding CEOs, or whether it is impossible to reward the right things.


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Interviewing at its worst

2UE's John Laws with the Labor Party Leader Kevin Rudd later this morning.

LAWS: Will you tell me what was the purpose of your meeting Brian Burke three times in 2005? I mean, it can’t be anything, you weren’t planning a bank robbery...

LAWS: I’ve got to tell you that we’ve had literally hundreds of emails this morning. I’ve tried to read as many as I could. But more people have supported you than the Prime Minister because they can see through this Ian Campbell sacking...

LAWS: The Leader of the Opposition, the Federal Opposition, Kevin Rudd. And there it is. You’ve got the story. It’s up to you whether you choose to believe it or not. I, frankly, do.



The whole thing is over the fold.

If the ABC interviewed like this it would be in deep trouble, and rightly so.



LAWS: Kevin Rudd is, as you know, Federal Opposition Leader, and he’s on the line. Good morning, Kevin.

RUDD: Good morning, John. How are you?

LAWS: Good thank you, probably better than you. You’re under a bit of pressure, aren’t you?

RUDD: Well, these things happen in politics and I always knew that we were going to go through a negative phase between now and the election and I think we’re in the middle of one.

LAWS: You sure are. Will you tell me what was the purpose of your meeting Brian Burke three times in 2005? I mean, it can’t be anything … you weren’t planning a bank robbery.

RUDD: Absolutely not. I have a good friend in Western Australia. He’s a WA Member of Parliament whose name is Graham Edwards. You may have met Graham over the years –

LAWS: Yes, I have.

RUDD: And Graham has known Brian Burke for a long time. I often stay with Graham when I’m in Perth and Graham asked me in 2005 to meet with Mr Burke. That happened over breakfast at Graham’s house. And after that there was a coffee, I think, and then after that there was, or at another point during the year, there was this dinner which has been the subject of some debate in recent times.

LAWS: Yeah well, you were the guest of honour, virtually, at the dinner.

RUDD: Well, Graham invited me to this dinner. And as he’s indicated in his statement the other day, what happened was he then of course told Mr Burke that I was coming. Mr Burke, it now seems, circulated this email to his contacts from the business community inviting them along. But when I went to this dinner I was completely unaware of the email or its contents. I knew that I was going to a dinner which Mr Burke would be at and where business people would be at. That’s the beginning and the end of it.

LAWS: Did you, at any time, talk to Mr Burke about the Labor leadership?

RUDD: On the question of the Labor leadership, can I just be absolutely clear cut about this.

LAWS: Please.

RUDD: This goes to the core of what Mr Howard’s been saying on your program and elsewhere today, I think. And that is at no time had I ever asked Mr Burke to support me to remove Kim Beazley and be replaced by me – never, ever, ever, ever – and that’s just an absurd allegation for Mr Howard to make. I think what Mr Howard is doing is simply trying to engage in a general campaign of political smear against myself. But on the facts of it, I’ve got to say it’s exactly as I described it.

And can I just add one thing to that, John, listening to what Mr Howard was saying this morning? It’s very important for people to know that Mr Burke has always been a lifelong supporter of Mr Beazley. Secondly, Mr Edwards, the person who I was staying with in Perth, is also a lifelong supporter of Mr Beazley. Does anyone think that at a dinner like that I’m going to go and declare publicly to a room like that that I am asking for their support to remove Mr Beazley and to replace him as Leader of the Labor Party? It’s absolutely absurd. And apart from all that, it’s simply not the way in which I operate. And all this, by the way, John, occurs I think some almost one and a half years before the ballot on the Labor Party leadership at the end of last year. I think we just need to nail Mr Howard’s false accusation at me for what it is – and that’s just negative smear.

LAWS: OK. My understanding is that the West Australian caucus went against you anyway – seven to two – or something so even if you did talk –

RUDD: It was worse than that. You can put that down to my lack of charisma in the West. I got two out of nine votes. So, that’s my understanding anyway. So, I just think we need to put this into some context. The other thing Mr Howard’s been saying is that he says that I therefore have some debt of obligation to Mr Burke. Well, if I didn’t ask for Mr Burke’s support to remove Mr Beazley as leader and for me to replace him as leader, how can there be any debt of obligation? That’s the first point. And secondly, what does he mean by debt of obligation? Is he saying that I asked Mr Burke for money? Did I ask him for fundraising support? Did I deal with him on some financial transaction? These are very wild accusations by Mr Howard. And the answer to all those things is no, no, no, and no. (inaudible) for Mr Howard to say these things.

LAWS: And can you tell me what you did say to Brian Burke about, just out of interest?

RUDD: Well, Mr Burke has obviously a big interest in politics and as I said in my statement the other day in Canberra, there was a general discussion about national politics, a general discussion about State politics, and I have no recollection whatsoever myself of any discussion of Mr Beazley’s leadership. It’s a large dinner and I can’t rule out the possibility that others may have discussed it. But on the core question of Mr Howard’s accusation – which is that I am there in Perth to ask for Mr Burke’s support for the removal of Kim Beazley and the replacement of Mr Beazley by me – that’s an absolute untruth. And Mr Howard should hang his head in shame for saying that sort of thing.

LAWS: Can I ask you your opinion on the dismissal or the walking away of Senator Campbell?

RUDD: Well, I think as one of my colleagues said yesterday or the day before, it’s difficult to find someone who smiles on the day that they are sacked and Mr Campbell had a smile, Senator Campbell had a smile all over his face. The reason for that obviously is this: Senator Campbell says he’s done nothing wrong. Mr Howard says he’s done nothing that would cause him not to be reappointed in the future, so what this is all about is simply Mr Campbell, or Senator Campbell, falling on a false sword, some sort of rubber sword, for six months. Why? To justify Mr Howard running on a continuing, negative smear campaign against myself.

On the question … the other accusation by the way concerning all of that which Mr Howard has been making on the radio programs this morning while I’ve been in the air is this: he’s saying that I’m engaged in some sort of cover-up. John I think your listeners need to know, when I was first asked about whether I’d ever met with Mr Burke, this was in November last year, I said to The Australian newspaper that I had on a couple of occasions, it turns out to have been three. That’s in black and white in The Australian in November last year. And did Mr Costello jump up and demand explanations then? Did Mr Howard jump up and demand explanations? No, not at all. What’s happened three months later is that Labor is actually doing OK in the opinion polls. I think the Government’s concerned about a shift in the national mood across Australia. And what they’ve done therefore is turn immediately into the direction of a negative, personal smear campaign against myself in order to take some paint off.

I admit, and I’ll say this to your listeners quite clearly, that in 2005 I obviously got it wrong. Had I 20:20 hindsight, had I known what was actually going on in relation to the activities which are now subsequently before the Commission of Inquiry in Western Australia, of course I wouldn’t have met with Mr Burke. I understand that and I accept responsibility for it and I think admitting that you’ve got something wrong is important in leadership and that’s not something I’ve ever heard Mr Howard ever do, admit that he’s got anything wrong.

LAWS: I’ve got to tell you that we’ve had literally hundreds of emails this morning. I’ve tried to read as many as I could. But more people have supported you than the Prime Minister because they can see through this Ian Campbell sacking. I mean, how the man could do as something as obvious as that, I don’t know. It’s to me not politically clever.

RUDD: Well, I think Mr Howard is basically just trying to create a platform on which to run a negative campaign against yours truly into the future. I’d much rather debate Mr Howard on the positive policy plans for Australia’s future when it comes to working families under financial pressure; when it comes to climate change; when it comes to my proposal for an Education Revolution; what we’re doing on water, and how we end the blame game between Canberra and the States – things that matter to working families across this country. Instead, what I have to put up with in the last four days is this personal, negative smear campaign. And I as I said, John, before, if they were really serious about this why didn’t they raise this three month ago when I put all this on the public record – that I’d met with Mr Burke a couple of time back then.

LAWS: I’ve got to say, I don’t quite understand for a moment why you wouldn’t offer a detailed, unqualified explanation about the conversation you had with him. You’ve now done that to me. Wouldn’t it have been easier if you did that originally and you wouldn’t have had such a tough three days?

RUDD: When Mr Costello raised this in Parliament last Thursday, I went straight out of the Chamber into my office and said the best thing to do is to respond to the questions of the national Press Gallery and then I went into the press room and stood there for nearly an hour and took ever incoming question from the Press Gallery. And what then emerged … and that went on for, as I said, nearly an hour and all sorts of questions, and I stayed there until those questions had been exhausted. Since then, two subsequent questions have emerged about, one, the whole matter of whether I had asked Mr Burke to support me in some attempt, according to Mr Howard, of removing Mr Beazley from the leadership and to be replaced by me. And secondly, this question of the emailed invitation concerning whether or not I was a guest of honour, I think I’ve dealt with both those today on your program.

LAWS: You have. I appreciate your time, Kevin. Thank you very much for talking to us. I think it was a good thing to do because people were wondering why you weren’t talking. But you said you were in the air, or something. Are you flying?

RUDD: I was flying from Brisbane to Melbourne this morning and let me tell you, that takes a while.

LAWS: It does.

RUDD: So, I came into the office here and got the message from my office that you’d been trying to track us down so I put some meetings to one side just to ring you back in order to be able to speak to your listeners.

LAWS: I appreciate it very much, Kevin. Thank you.

RUDD: Thanks for having me on the program, John.

LAWS: Pleasure. Bye. The Leader of the Opposition, the Federal Opposition, Kevin Rudd. And there it is. You’ve got the story. It’s up to you whether you choose to believe it or not. I, frankly, do. And really, that should put an end to the whole non-event.


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Interviewing at its best

2UE's Mike Carlton and Peter FitzSimons with the Treasurer Peter Costello early this morning.

JOURNALIST:

It’s a strange set of priorities isn’t it, when Mr Downer and Mr Vaile can preside over the AWB scandal, send $300 million off to Saddam Hussein, they keep their jobs, Senator Campbell goes after a 20 minute meeting?

TREASURER:

You know, nobody made more of that than Kevin Rudd, who kept on saying that Mr Downer and Mr Vaile had to know what a Jordanian trucking company was doing…

JOURNALIST:

No, they had to know what AWB was doing, and they didn’t. Downer and Vaile keep their jobs. Why is that?

TREASURER:

They were the subject of an extensive Royal Commission which cleared them. Now…

JOURNALIST:

It didn’t clear them at all, it didn’t investigate them.



The whole thing is over the fold.

If only the ABC interviewed this well!


JOURNALIST:

Treasurer Peter Costello is on the line, morning.

TREASURER:

Good morning Mike, good morning Peter.

JOURNALIST:

Good to talk to you. You don’t know that any of this really matters today to the ordinary voter who right now is getting ready to go to work to make a quid.

TREASURER:

I think what voters will be asking themselves is whether Mr Rudd has told the truth and whether his version of events are credible, and that is an important issue. You have got somebody who is putting himself forward to be the Prime Minister of Australia; this is the first time he’s ever been under any pressure. When he was put under pressure he wasn’t forthright, he didn’t come out and say the facts, and I think people want to know what they were.

JOURNALIST:

Mr Costello, he’s at least forthright enough to say ‘I’ve made a mistake, it was an error of judgment on my part’.

TREASURER:

Well Peter, he certainly made a mistake and he certainly made an error of judgement. But the question now is did he tell the facts? He said, oh look, I was staying with Graham Edwards, Graham said come out to dinner, lo and behold, I went out to dinner and there’s Brian Burke. Now, as I said in the Parliament, it’s a bit like Bill Hunter in Muriel’s Wedding – ‘Deirdre Chambers, what a coincidence!’ What a coincidence Brian Burke was there. And then of course, up turns this email that shows Brian Burke had invited people there to meet Kevin and Kevin was the guest of honour. And by the way, Kevin gave a speech once he arrived there.

JOURNALIST:

Mr Rudd says they never saw that email, he simply went along because his mate Graham Edwards, the Labor MP, said come to dinner.

TREASURER:

Yes. And Brian Burke had already invited people to meet Kevin, and when Kevin turned up, lo and behold, he gave the speech. The funny thing is, you walk into a restaurant, you are not expecting Brian and his clients to be there, but you turn around and you say, well seeing as you’re here, I’ll give you the speech for the evening. I don’t think you’d believe that Mike.

JOURNALIST:

Is everybody at that dinner then, comprised, if, does that include the West Australian mining businessman Andrew Forrest, who was at the same dinner?

JOURNALIST:

One of the Prime Minister’s closest friends.

TREASURER:

Yes well a lot of people in Western Australia knew that if you wanted to get on with the Labor Party, the Labor Government in Western Australia, you should retain Mr Burke. He was the person of great influence and as the Crime and Corruption Commission has shown, he actually used to get a lot of value for his clients.

JOURNALIST:

Well hold on, you said the other day that anyone who deals with Brian Burke is morally and politically compromised, does that include the Prime Minister’s close mate Andrew Forrest, the West Australian mining businessman?

TREASURER:

Mr Forrest was retaining Brian Burke to try and get influence with the Labor Government in Western Australia.

JOURNALIST:

But was he politically and morally compromised in doing so?

TREASURER:

Well he was a businessman, he was looking after his business…

JOURNALIST:

But Mr Costello, if I may just say, you did say in very strong language, anybody who deals with him is morally compromised. Now surely you don’t let them off the hook then if oh well it was only because he was trying to advance his business interests?

TREASURER:

No, businessmen are always trying to advance their business interests, but they are not running for Prime Minister. Hang on, if Andrew Forrest were running for Prime Minister, he would be totally unsuitable for the job by reason of the fact …

JOURNALIST:

But he can run a mining company ok …

JOURNALIST:

Oh, come on.

TREASURER:

Well come on Mike …

JOURNALIST:

Oh come on, you’re tying yourself in knots, that’s ridiculous, you said anyone who deals with Mr Brian Burke is morally and politically compromised, anyone.

JOURNALIST:

Except mining magnates.

TREASURER:

No, no, no, I’m sorry, Kevin Rudd is in hock to Brian Burke. Brian Burke now has the goods on Kevin Rudd because, have you thought about this: Brian Burke can come out at any time if Kevin gets into office and tell the truth about that meeting. And the moment he does, of course, Kevin Rudd is in deep trouble.

JOURNALIST:

Why did Kevin Rudd…

TREASURER:

No, this is a very important point Mike. Kevin Rudd, as of this day, needs Brian Burke more than anybody else, because he needs Brian Burke to stack up his version of events. That’s why, if Kevin Rudd gets into a position of even more influence, it is a very dangerous situation.

JOURNALIST:

It’s a strange set of priorities isn’t it, when Mr Downer and Mr Vaile can preside over the AWB scandal, send $300 million off to Saddam Hussein, they keep their jobs, Senator Campbell goes after a 20 minute meeting.

TREASURER:

You know, nobody made more of that than Kevin Rudd, who kept on saying that Mr Downer and Mr Vaile had to know what a Jordanian trucking company was doing…

JOURNALIST:

No, they had to know what AWB was doing, and they didn’t.

TREASURER:

… what an Australian company, which neither of them owned or controlled, right? So, they have got to know what an Australian company was doing in Jordan, with a Jordanian trucking company, according to Mr Rudd, but he can’t tell you what he was doing in Western Australia in 2005. He can’t tell you why he went there…

JOURNALIST:

He says he did tell us, he says he did tell us.

TREASURER:

Well he can’t tell – no, well hang on, why was he there? He says this dinner was just peripheral. Why was he there? He can’t tell you what business took him to WA. If Brian Burke didn’t take him to Western Australia in 2005, what did?

JOURNALIST:

I don’t know, but you can toss that around can’t you, until you are black and blue but you’re ignoring my central point here, you’re ignoring my point. Downer and Vaile, either through negligence, incompetence or sheer ignorance, ignored the AWB scandal, $300 million pumped off to Saddam Hussein, they keep their jobs. Why is that?

TREASURER:

They were the subject of an extensive Royal Commission which cleared them. Now …

JOURNALIST:

It didn’t clear them at all, it didn’t investigate them.

TREASURER:

Well hang on, no, it did.

JOURNALIST:

No it didn’t, it wasn’t supposed to investigate the Government.

TREASURER:


Well, you know, you can believe Kevin Rudd’s line on that if you like, but I’m sorry, it investigated AWB and it found that AWB had not told any Minister, nor was there any reason for any Minister to know. Let me put it to you like this Mike, would you like a Royal Commission to investigate Kevin Rudd’s meeting at Perugino’s?

JOURNALIST:

What are you trying to suggest went on at Perugino’s, I mean this is …

TREASURER:

Well I’ll tell you what went on. Kevin Rudd was looking for influence in the West Australian Labor Party. To get influence in the West Australian Labor Party, the person who had the most of it was the disgraced Brian Burke, the disgraced Brian Burke who Geoff Gallop had said was to have no contact with Labor figures. And Kevin Rudd was flying into Western Australia, to not only make contact with him, but to get influence in the West Australian Labor Party, which would be useful for his career and has proved to be very useful.

JOURNALIST:

Although, Mr Costello, I must say I know from having written the biography of Kim Beazley, how close personally Kim Beazley was with Brian Burke for many a, many a year. You know, it wouldn’t have been the obvious thing, if you were seeking, seeking power from the power brokers in Western Australia to go to Brian Burke as your first call to undermine Beazley.

TREASURER:

Well Brian Burke as we now know was the most influential person in the West Australian Labor Party, if you could attract him, you’re in business.

JOURNALIST:

Yeah but Burke and Beazley were mates, Rudd’s hardly going to go to Burke and say look, can you help me toss Beazley.

TREASURER:

Well let me tell you Mike, when you’re looking for votes, you are looking for votes from everybody, particularly the powerful.

JOURNALIST

You speak as a man of experience in these matters.

TREASURER:

Well, obviously I’m not successful.

JOURNALIST:

That’s very modest of you.

JOURNALIST:

Mr Costello, how do you know with such certainty what went on at that dinner, you speak as if you know exactly what happened.

TREASURER:

Well we now have the email, we now have the witness accounts of people who were there, and the only person whose account we don’t have is Kevin’s. Now, if Kevin wants to go in to the Parliament and say why he did go to Western Australia; produce, you know, his itinerary for the day; have an explanation as to how he turns up to give a speech at a meeting he didn’t even know was on, and it’s credible, I suppose we could say well maybe you should overlook the emails and the other guests, and believe Kevin, but you see…

JOURNALIST:

One of the difficulties with Kevin Rudd is trying to stop him giving a speech, so you can’t be surprised he gave one.

TREASURER:

Yes. One of the problems with Kevin now is he says he won’t say any more about this, and what he has said to date isn’t very convincing.

JOURNALIST:

Mr Costello, is it fair to summate that you personally would not sup with the devil to become Prime Minister?

TREASURER:

Well, I’ll tell you what I wouldn’t do. I wouldn’t fly into Western Australia and seek Brian Burke’s backing for my political career. No, I wouldn’t do that, no.

JOURNALIST:

Don’t think it would help you a lot. Good to talk to you, thanks for your time.

JOURNALIST:

Thank you.

TREASURER:

Good on you, thanks fellas.
Read more >>

Friday, March 02, 2007

Only in the topsy-turvy city of Canberra... would the Coalition think it could win votes by painting Labor as a small-spender

Today Labor announced planned cuts in government expenditure on attaining office worth $3 billion (details over the fold).

Here's how the ACT's Liberal senator Gary Humphries responded:

20,000 PUBLIC SERVICE JOBS TO GO?


Rudd Labor has given its clearest signal that a blood bath is in store for Canberra public servants should it win the next election.

Today in The Australian, Labor’s Finance spokesman Lindsay Tanner again expressed disgust at the growth of public service jobs under the Coalition Government.

But he now appears to be flagging the number of jobs he wants cut – 20,000.

“The message is clear for Canberra public servants: Your jobs are on the line at the next Federal election,” ACT Liberal Senator Gary Humphries said today.

“With over a third of Commonwealth public servants working in Canberra, this would probably mean a cut of 7,000 jobs in this city.

“Kevin Rudd is travelling around Australia promising extra funding and services, yet he wants Canberra public servants to do more with less.

“As was the case with Mark Latham, Rudd Labor wants to rip funding out of Canberra to pay for its election promises to other parts of the country.

“Strong investment by the Commonwealth has off-set the ACT Government’s economic incompetence. But if Labor obtains power Federally, it’s double-trouble for Canberra,” Senator Humphries said.

Here's Labor's announcement:

LINDSAY TANNER MP

SHADOW MINISTER FOR FINANCE

LABOR’S $3 BILLION SAVINGS PLAN

Federal Labor today announced a massive savings plan to cut out $3 billion of Howard Government waste.

These $3 billion in savings across the 4 years of the federal budget will put downward pressure on inflation and interest rates.

Labor’s savings plan includes:

    · Saving $394 million by scrapping the Howard Government’s extreme work laws;

    · Cutting $350 million worth of Howard Government political advertising; and

    · A $395 million cut in the use of consultants in the Commonwealth public service.

(A full list of savings is attached below)

A Rudd Labor Government will use its $3 billion savings plan to cut wasteful spending and increase investment in productivity drivers like education, skills and infrastructure.

Complacency and lack of discipline by the Howard Government has allowed unnecessary spending to flourish. Splurges of taxpayers dollars on political advertising and high cost consultants are proof of that fact.

If introduced today, Labor’s savings would save $3 billion over the Budget estimates period. Labor will continue to pursue savings options, and make further savings announcements prior to the election.

This sensible and disciplined savings plan will put downward pressure on inflation and interest rates. Labor’s savings include and build on the $1 billion of savings announced in November 2006


2 March 2007

SUMMARY OF LABOR’S SAVINGS

Figures in $million 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Total
Limit FTB (B) to those who earn under $250,000 7.5 7.5 7.5 22.5
Withdraw Australia's contribution to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development 88.0 88.0
Remove tax deductibility for political donations 9.5 11.6 21.1
Remove surplus funding due to WorkChoices 53.5 138.2 141.7 61.4 394.8
Fold Invest Australia functions into Austrade 23.5 23.5 23.5 70.5
Reverse 2006 Budget measure for on-line electronic authentication 4.0 12.6 9.1 25.7
Abandon Medibank Private sale and associated sale costs 12.0 12.0
Reverse increase in MP's printing allowance 2.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 17.0
Require industry to fund the Financial Literacy Foundation 5.3 5.4 10.7
Streamline government advertising and eliminate political propaganda 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 350.0
Abolish Prime Minister's Community Business Partnership 2.0 4.3 6.3
Use centralised telephone services and websites to advise on aged care availability and save uncommitted Carelink funds 13.7 13.7
Require industry not taxpayers to fund the Do Not Call Register 4.0 10.1 7.6 6.2 27.9
Partially reverse 2006-07 Budget decision giving extra running costs to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade 4.5 8.5 8.9 9.4 31.3
Reverse 2006-07 budget decisions to increase Australian Securities and Investment Commission funding 19.3 36.7 36.8 37.0 129.8
Defer Access Card for further examination 145.0 157.0 302.0
Abolish Carrick Institute awards and reduce Institute funding 5.4 10.7 10.7 10.7 37.5
Absorb the cost of the Future Fund advisory unit 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.5
Reduce spending on non-Defence related recruitment agencies 7.0 15.8 15.8 15.8 54.4
Reduce spending on consultants 56.5 112.9 112.9 112.9 395.2
Reduce spending on political opinion polls/market research 7.5 15.0 15.0 15.0 52.5
Reverse December 2006 decision to create Digital Australia and increase ACMA funding 2.9 7.0 5.9 6.2 22.0
Remove funding to employers to promote WorkChoices under the Employer Advisor Program 12.5 12.5
Remove December 2006 funding increase for the PM's Nuclear Energy Taskforce 3.9 3.9
Improve purchasing and administration arrangements of Commonwealth air travel 6.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 52.5
Reduce funding for the National Capital Authority 1.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 11.5
Reduce duplication in tax administration by abolishing the Inspector-General of Taxation 2.2 2.2 2.2 6.6
Extend Centrelink compliance campaign - 'Keeping the system fair' 51.8 53.4 55.0 160.2
Redirect 2006-07 budget measure to increase Australian Taxation Office funding to compliance activity to produce larger compliance dividend 7.0 62.1 175.7 235.7 480.5
Re-introduce the voluntary Student Supplement Scheme saving money in youth allowance and AUSTUDY 34.7 31.3 28.1 94.1
Reverse December 2006 decision for National Training Centre for Aerial Skiing 2.5 2.5
Close Nauru and Manus Island detention centres 10.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 91.0
Total # 275.4 943.1 994.8 789.4 3001.2

# Labor's November savings announcement included $125 million arising from the proposed withdrawal of Australian troops from Iraq. Following questioning in estimates, no clarity was given of the Government’s actual funding in the forward estimates. Although the Government has no exit strategy from Iraq, it has not provided forward estimates of the cost of troop deployment beyond 30 June 2007. Labor will withdraw Australian combat troops from Iraq, but it is difficult to estimate the savings from the withdrawal of troops because of the lack of transparency relating to these costs in the forward estimates, as well as the fact that the precise timing of the withdrawal will be subject to the stage that the combat troop rotation has reached and negotiations with the United States and Iraqi Governments on a staged withdrawal. Therefore the savings from the withdrawal of combat troops cannot be included in this savings package.
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Saturday Forum: Why Canberra has a housing crisis.

Looking for somewhere to live? If we are to believe the Chief Minister help is on the way. This month Jon Stanhope will release his long-awaited affordable housing strategy - six months in development.

For an unknown number of Canberra workers camping on couches, driving in from Goulbourn or not knowing whether they will be able to cope with a jump in rent it can't come soon enough.

In order to fix the problem his steering group will first have to work out exactly what's behind it.

Perhaps the first point to acknowledge is that despite the impression we have in the ACT our rental crisis is not unique. Type the words "rental crisis" into a newspaper search engine and you will also come up with dire stories this year from Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide...

Reserve Bank figures show that throughout Australia rental vacancy rates are
at their lowest since the early 1980's. Canberra's average vacancy rate of
1.8 per cent last year was not that much different to Sydney's 1.9 per cent
or Melbourne's 1.7 per cent.

As the Bank's Governor Glenn Stevens put it the parliamentary committee late
last month: "Rental vacancy rates are low right around the country. No
particular region stands out all that much."

Governor Stevens was not saying that things aren't dire for people
attempting to move to cities such as Canberra, merely that at the moment
they are dire for people attempting to move to every Australian mainland
city.

He says the root cause is the truly phenomenal surge in house prices over
the last few years. People who would have once bought now can't, so there
are more people wanting to rent. At the same time landlords are discovering
that renting out properties is no longer a particularly good way to make
money. The Governor says that as a proportion of the cost of a house rents
have halved over the past few years. This wouldn't have mattered that much
when landlords could expect to sell their properties later for a big capital
gain, but it matters now that prices have stopped rising.

The new very advantageous tax treatment for superannuation due to start in
the middle of the year will drive even more investors away from real estate.

That's why the Governor's very public suggestion a couple of weeks ago that
landlords should consider putting up their rents should be seen as a public
service. Either house prices are going to have to fall or rents rise in
order to keep enough landlords in the business.

In parts of Australia prices are falling. In some parts of South Western
Sydney it is said that most of the auctions on Saturday mornings are at the
behest of mortgage providers selling their customers' homes because they
can't keep up the repayments. Those mortgage providers are none to fussy
about the prices the properties sell for and so prices are plummeting.

But not in Canberra. Perhaps more so than any Australian city property
prices in Canberra are, to use economic language: "sticky downwards".

Here's why.

Canberra residents are different to people in the rest of the country in two
important ways. One is in the type of jobs they enjoy. Census data shows
that Canberra workers are much more likely to be in professional jobs than
workers elsewhere. 40 per cent of Canberra workers are in professional
jobs. Only 33 per cent of Sydney workers are. The other is in who their
employer is. Canberra workers are far more likely to work for the
government.

This makes Canberra workers typically more financially secure than workers
in other cities. Put simply - if interest rates go up they are far less
likely to be forced to sell. As well, they seem to be far less inclined to
sell when prices go down, perhaps preferring to hold on until prices
improve.

Data from allhomes.com.au shows that typically around 6,000 houses change
hands a year in Canberra. In 2001 the figure was 7,500. Last year it fell
to 4,153 - the lowest annual total since allhomes began collecting figures.
It looks as if Canberra homeowners have the ability and the will to hang on
rather than sell when prices are falling.

Other things are different about the Canberra real estate market as well. A
higher proportion of houses are rented (33 per cent compared to 29 per cent
in Sydney) and there are more group houses (4.7 per cent of households
rather than 3.8 per cent). This means that paradoxically while more of the
population is financially secure than elsewhere less of it has housing
security.

And because the absolute number of new houses built each year is low,
Canberra housing is vulnerable to unexpected shocks.

Typically around 200 houses a month are built in Canberra. In January four
years ago bushfires destroyed or damaged more than 500.

And the Commonwealth government, the ACT's biggest employer, has provided
another shock. In its latest budget it ramped up plans for recruitment,
apparently setting aside funds for an extra 3,000 to 5,000 Canberra-based
public servants.

It is hardly surprising that a land-release program decided on months or
years in advance has difficulty coping.

The most important part of the solution to be recommended by the Affordable
Housing Steering Group later this month is likely to be releasing more
blocks of land. It is a straightforward fix guaranteed to work, but it will
take time to take effect.

The Chief Minister has talked about quarantining some of the new blocks of
land for low-income housing. When announcing the release of 500 new blocks
at west Macgregor last month the Planning Minister Simon Corbell specified
that 75 or them had to be used for "affordable housing". From an
economic point of view there is nothing much wrong with such an idea
although, predictably, developers are less than enthusiastic.

Chief Minister Stanhope has also talked about allowing buyers to share
equity with in their homes with silent owners, an idea whose strongest
political champion to date has been the Liberal frontbencher Malcolm
Turnbull. As Chairman of the Menzies Research Centre before entering
Parliament in 2004 Turnbull commissioned a major report on the idea that
found it had merit.

Real estate agents want the Steering Group to recommend a cut in land taxes.
The head of the Real Estate Institute in the ACT Peter Blackshaw has
actually called for their elimination. But the argument isn't
straightforward, even if the ACT could afford to do without the income form
land taxes. It is generally agreed that land taxes depress land prices, not
increase them. That's right: depress. If an investor knows that there will
be annual costs involved after buying a property that investor is likely to
be prepared to pay less for the property in the first place. Removing land
tax would start a prices frenzy in the ACT (unless buyers expected the tax
to be reintroduced) shifting prices up to a new plain. On the other hand it
would, as the Institute suggests, increase the number of landlords. It
would do it at the cost of even higher house prices.

From an economic point of view every solution other than increasing the
supply of land for housing is mere tinkering at the edges, however
worthwhile. Increasing the supply of land will both increase the number of
houses for sale and the number of properties for rent. It is likely to
prevent house prices from rising for a while longer and maybe persuade some
of those home owners withholding their properties from sale while they wait
for a rebound to give in.

As it happens there are good reasons to be wary about the Canberra housing
market as a long-term investment proposition.

As I mentioned, it is particularly vulnerable to shocks. And shocks can
come from either direction. The Labor party yesterday unveiled a $3 billion
plan to cut commonwealth spending. The ACT Liberal Senator Gary Humphries says if implemented it would most likely mean a cut of 20,000 government jobs - 7,000 of them in Canberra.

Or perhaps not. Labor might not that many jobs. Or the Coalition could get
back and cut jobs itself. Or continue to increase them.

That's Canberra's problem. Decisions made by the Commonwealth are sudden,
unpredictable, and have a disproportionate effect on the demand for houses
and Canberra house prices.

A big slump the ACT housing market is entirely possible. Right now that
seems unlikely, just as did last week's sudden downpour and hailstorm after
months without rain.

Most of Canberra would hardly be praying for a cutback government employment and a slump in the ACT economy - but it would fix the housing crisis.

The Chief Minister's affordable housing steering group is certain to recommend more practical measures when it reports later this month, the most important of which will be dull but effective: an increase in the number of
blocks for sale.
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Thursday, March 01, 2007

The poor get the picture. Does Peter Garrett?


If Labor’s shadow cabinet thinks that the middle-class owns million dollar houses, I can’t help wondering what their election strategy to target mainstream Australia is going to look like.

That's the ANU's Andrew Leigh, who takes a break from parenting today to comment on this Peter Garrett radio transcript.

On ABC Adelaide's Matthew Abraham and David Bevan program Tuesday the Labor front bencher was asked, quite legitimately in the view of Labor's taunts about Malcolm Turnbull, whether he was a millionaire.

I hate to say it, again, but Garrett's reply was excruciatingly embarrassing, not to mention wrong.

BEVAN: Are you a millionaire?

GARRETT: Well, anybody who owns a house in Sydney or around Sydney probably qualifies for that but I’d say I’m a person of moderate means.

As Andrew Leigh notes, the median house price in Sydney is $520,000.

As he says: "If Labor’s shadow cabinet thinks that the middle-class owns million dollar houses, I can’t help wondering what their election strategy to target mainstream Australia is going to look like."
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Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Slicing the states' pie

At last. NSW and Victoria have stopped subsidising Western Australia and have almost stopped subsidising Queensland.

From here on in it looks as if the big four will be sudsidising the rest together.

As the Reserve Bank Governor said - Australia's economies are converging rather than moving apart.

Here's my report for tomorrow's CT:

New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the ACT have emerged winners from the latest carve up of the nation’s financial cake, with Western Australia the big loser.

The new arrangements recommended by the Grants Commission will give the ACT $13 million more next financial year than it would have got had the old split continued.

In addition the ACT will benefit from an extra $55 million it is expected to receive because of an increase in the size of the GST cake.

NSW is by far the biggest winner from the new split, gaining an extra $277 million, largely to compensate for sluggish earnings from stamp duty compared to other states.

Western Australia gets $271 million less than it would have under the old split, mainly to take account of what the Commission describes as the “unprecedented strength” of its economy.

Previously subsidized by NSW and Victoria, Western Australia now joins them as states assisting the rest of the country...

Queensland now barely remains subsidized, losing $166 million in grants as a result of the new split.

The changes are less severe than they would have been had they fully taken into account the current financial strength of Queensland and Western Australia. By legislation they are based on data averaged over the previous five-years.

Nevertheless Western Australia’s Treasurer Eric Ripper yesterday slammed the new split saying that the west was being punished for its economic success. He said the rest of Australia was happy to enjoy the fruits of its economic boom, but not happy to put money back.

“Our state is subsidising the other states to the tune of $4billion a year, by more than $2,000 for every Western Australian - that’s the highest per capita subsidy in the nation,” he said.

Driving the increase in the ACT’s share of the pie is the hit in revenue it took when it phased out a number of taxes at the Commonwealth’s request. The ACT lost more revenue per person from that decision than other states.

The ACT is also being compensated for relatively low stamp duty collections.

The Commission’s report says that the ACT property market has been the second slowest in the nation over the last five years.

The Chief Minister Jon Stanhope said he was pleased with the Commission’s decision to award the ACT an extra $13 million and that it was more than he had expected.

“However it is not more than we are entitled to or more than is justified,” he said.

The NSW deputy premier John Watkins was less gracious saying that even though his state was $277 better off it was still subsidising the rest of the country it was still some $2.4 billion short.

“If we had our fair share, if we had that $2.4 billion extra we would put it into frontline services such as hospitals, schools and police and transport,” he said.

The Chairman of the Grants Commission Alan Morris said that the changes reflected the accelerating pace at which the state’s earning capacities were changing.

“Western Australia and Queensland have boosted their own source revenues and consequently, in line with the objective of promoting fiscal equalization, reduced their share of GST funding,” he said.

The report highlights was it says is a “convergence” of economic capacity among Australia’s four most populous states - NSW, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, although it says more recent data suggests that process may be slowing.
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Maxine...


"...you're not the only one to take the whole world on..."

The photo is by Lorrie Graham, the lyrics are by Sharon O'Neil. The single was a big hit in Australia in 1983 and curiously Maxine McKew herself once told her colleagues she had never heard of it.

I have eulogised about my colleague of two or so decades here.

A leading ABC television journalist, she was a foreign correspondent and then chucked it in to work Channel 10.

As she told me once "I am a gypsy"...

Then, reversing the usual order of things, she dived into radio as the Chief Political Correspondent for the ABC programs AM and PM in Canberra, which was where we met.

And then dived into business reporting - another new horizon - setting up the new ABC business program The Bottom Line with Max Walsh, taking me with her.

Made host of Lateline after the business show collapsed, after a year or so she set off instead for print - another new horizon - joining The Bulletin magazine.

She continued presenting Lateline on Friday nights and filling in for Kerry O'Brien on The 7.30 Report and then approached ABC radio about working with me on an interview program - Sunday Profile.

More than enough new horizons for most lifetimes... but not Maxine's.

Anyone who says she won't be a success as a politician doesn't know Maxine.

And I am thrilled to.
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Baby you can drive my car...


Backwards and forwards, backwards and forwards...

I had thought this was an urban myth.

But apparently not.

Throughout Australia this month executives are going to be driving their cars (or having their wives and children drive their cars) backwards and forwards, backwards and forwards, up and down hills...

...in order to save a few thousand dollars on tax.

Deloitte Indirect Tax has put out a press release, not condemning the practice, but stressing the benefits. I am not sure what they expected me to do with it.

Perhaps to post it here for everyone to read:


Media Release

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Drive your benefits further – before it’s too late!

As the end of the FBT year approaches, so does the last chance for significant FBT savings on your salary packaged car.

Deloitte Indirect Tax Principal Frank Klasic said that salary packaged cars remain the most popular fringe benefit provided to employees.

“Although many employees successfully package their cars, there are still many who do not minimise the FBT associated with their car fringe benefit,” Mr Klasic said.

“The easiest way for employees to maximise their FBT savings is to plan ahead before the FBT year ends on 31 March.”

According to Mr Klasic, many employees may be on the cusp of the next kilometre threshold used to calculate FBT using the statutory formula method. Where this is the case, increasing the kilometres driven can also significantly increase your savings.

For example, an employee who has a car valued at $35,000 and drove 24,000km during the FBT year would have an FBT liability of $6,720. Increasing the number of kilometres driven to more than 25,000km would reduce that employee’s FBT liability to just $3,696 – a saving of more than $3,000.

“Employees should be aware that all kilometres driven between now and 31 March will be included when calculating the associated FBT,” Mr Klasic said.

“In addition, employees should collate their invoices and receipts to substantiate related car expenses such as car insurance, maintenance and repairs, where these have been paid using their own after-tax dollars.

“Employers that leave requests for odometer readings to the last moment may find that employees are not contactable or too busy to provide the information. This can result in estimates being used which often prove incorrect.”

Another important consideration for employees, before the 31 March deadline, is the possibility of making after-tax contributions towards their car fringe benefit.

“Many employers and employees continue to use salary packaging arrangements entered into before the reduction in personal income tax rates which came into effect on 1 July 2006. This change, in many circumstances, means that employees using the employee contribution method will significantly reduce the FBT liability on their car fringe benefits. This, in turn, can result in a net increase in after-tax salary.

“It’s not only car fringe benefits that require some housekeeping at this time of year. Many other benefits require employees to provide declarations at year end.”

Employers who are classified as rebatable or exempt employers (including hospitals, charities and public benevolent institutions) are exempt or concessionally taxed for FBT up to a certain threshold. As such, they may be able to provide employees with extra benefits which won’t be subject to FBT.

“Many employees do not reach their threshold limits in relation to benefits provided by a rebatable or exempt employer. This means employees and employers are not getting the most out of their salary packaging arrangements.”

“Tax effective planning methodologies and effective communication strategies are very important at this time of year,” according to Klasic.


NB: See our media releases and research at www.deloitte.com.au.


For further information:


Frank Klasic

Deloitte Indirect Tax Principal

Tel: (0) 3 9208 7514


Amanda Kennedy

Media and communications manager

Tel: + (0) 3 9208 7407

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Monday, February 26, 2007

Tuesday Column: The anti-war case for the return of conscription

This is a column I never thought I would write. Like most boys growing up in Australia in the 1960’s and early 1970s I knew dimly, and then with increasing certainty, that one day I would face conscription, training in the use of weapons, and then perhaps Vietnam.

It was a relief when Gough Whitlam abolished national service on becoming Prime Minister in December 1972. I no longer had to face the prospect of one day having my number pulled out of a barrel and being told to put on a uniform (something I was particularly unsuited to do).

Of all the Whitlam Government’s achievements, ending conscription is perhaps the most widely applauded.

And yet all these years later I want to suggest that it was wrong. I want to put the case for reintroducing conscription, and this time extending it to women and allowing no exemptions...

In order to explain why, I need to point out that while Whitlam was standing for election in Australia in an attempt to close down conscription, across the Pacific in the United States a very unlikely ally was working within the Nixon administration to achieve the same end.

Milton Friedman is best known as a father of ‘hard-right’ economic policies. When he died aged 94 in November last year most of the obituaries referred to him as the father of monetarism, the proponent of ultra-small government and the man who provided economic advice to the Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet.

But he also opposed conscription, in part because it was economically inefficient, in part because he saw it as immoral. In his later years he nominated abolishing conscription as one of his proudest achievements.

To do it he had to change the mind of a pro-war President. Richard Nixon, long a supporter of the draft, agreed to appoint Friedman to a 15 member “Advisory Commission on an All-Volunteer Armed Force.” Five of its members began the inquiry supporting the draft, five, including Friedman opposed it, and five began without a declared position.

In his biography Friedman says the turning point came when the US Army Chief of Staff General William Westmoreland appeared before the commission.

Like most military leaders back then Westmoreland supported conscription. At one point in the proceedings he declared that he would not want to command “a band of mercenaries.”

Friedman recalled, “I stopped him and said, ‘General, would you rather command an army of slaves?’ He drew himself up and said, ‘I don’t like to hear our patriotic draftees referred to as slaves.’ But I went on to say, ‘If they are mercenaries, then I, sir, am a mercenary professor, and you, sir, are a mercenary general; we are served by mercenary physicians, we use a mercenary lawyer, and we get our meat from a mercenary butcher.’ That was the last we heard from the general about mercenaries.”

The commission unanimously recommended an end to conscription. After increasing pay scales for the military to ensure that there would be enough volunteer soldiers to continue the war, Nixon abolished conscription in January 1973, one month after Whitlam.

One-third of a century on, Whitlam and Nixon are almost universally seen to have done the right thing. Australia and the United States have successfully worked side by side in many wars and peacekeeping operations, most notably the first Iraq war, without even the hint of compulsory military service.

Australia has even taken the initiative in military action at times, sending troops to East Timor and the Solomon Islands with only the occasional suggestion that if things escalated there might be a need to reconsider conscription (and strike terror into the hearts of Australian parents with upper-teenaged boys).

Conscription has allowed Australian politicians and voters to fight wars and keep the peace without risk to themselves or to their families. What could be wrong with that?

Colin Powell provided a hint in the lead-up to the current Iraq war back 1992. The US ambassador to the United Nations Madeleine Albright wanted soldiers to intervene in Bosnia. In the middle of a heated argument she is said to have screamed at him: “What's the point of having this superb military you're always talking about if we can't use it?'” Extremely angry and breathing deeply, he is said to have replied: “American GIs are not toy soldiers to be moved around on some global game board”.

Without conscription it has become easier to deploy soldiers as if they are toys, perhaps too easy.

When Australia’s Defence Minister and Prime Minister speak of the need to keep Australian troops in Iraq indefinitely it doesn’t arouse a groundswell of opposition. Most of us know that our children will not be at risk.

Earlier this month the US Presidential candidate Barack Obama accused John Howard of being “ginned up to fight the good fight in Iraq” so long as it did not endanger Australians. It is a critique that applies to many of us.

Economists, of all people are now debating whether it was wrong to abolish conscription, in part because of a reassessment of Milton Friedman’s legacy, and in part because of a growing concern that the people who share in the apparent benefits of deploying the military no longer share in the gravest of the costs.

Last month in The Boston Globe a retired US colonel Andrew Bacevich railed against what he said was the new notion among America’s affluent and well-educated that “defence was something ‘they’ did, just as ‘they’ set tables, collected trash, and mowed lawns”.

He said that meant that “we” have forfeited our say in where “they” get sent to fight. When it came to invading Iraq, the US President (and by extension perhaps the Australian and British Prime Ministers) were able to pay insufficient attention to what their citizens thought.

“Even today, although a clear majority of Americans want the Iraq war shut down, their opposition counts for next to nothing: the will of the commander-in-chief prevails,” he said.

Bacevich said it also meant that when “they” -- the soldiers we contract to defend us -- get in trouble, we feel little or no obligation to help. If the soldiers in Iraq really need a surge in troops to get them over the line as the President suggests he asks, why not send 100,000?

He says the question answers itself: “There are not an additional 100,000 Americans willing to commit their lives.”

If Australia had retained conscription it is most unlikely that we ever would have gone into Iraq. On the other hand I think it is quite likely that we still would have gone into East Timor. But whatever military decisions we did take would have been taken with much more gravitas than the recent ones – we would not have been able to outsource the consequences.

Introducing conscription once more would mean that if Australia did go to war, or stayed in a war, my own children would be at risk. I would hate it. Which is why it is an idea whose time may be coming.
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Friday, February 23, 2007

Saturday Forum: Australia is not a two-speed economy

Everyone knows that Australia is a two-speed economy. In top gear is Western Australia along with Queensland and the Northern Territory.

On the slow setting is the rest of the country (apart from the high-flying ACT, which is a special case).


But what if everyone is wrong?

That’s the suspicion of the man whose view probably matters more than anyone else’s. You have probably never heard of him.

Glenn Stevens is a 49-year old amateur pilot from McMansion-infested suburb of Sylvania Waters by the Georges River in southern Sydney. Appearing before a parliamentary committee this week he took time out to stress that his own house was more typically Australian - “a piece of spec rubbish built in the1970s”. He’s also the Governor of the Reserve Bank...

Appointed in September after a decade of sitting alongside Governor Ian Macfarlane in parliamentary hearings, first as his assistant and then as his deputy, on Wednesday Stevens got the microphone to himself.

He said when people look at earning and spending in the mining-fuelled Western Australian economy and compare it to earning and spending everywhere else the differences appear stark. But the differences in production and employment were nowhere near as great. That’s because money earned and spent in the west is making its way east.

“Are there spillovers? Absolutely. They are through higher incomes for shareholders and employees that feeds into demand and spreads around the country. Some of that higher income of course is owned by foreign investors... but a good deal of it stays at home for shareholders and workers here, and governments get some as well,” he said.

Governor Stevens had prepared for the parliamentary committee a graph going back to the 1970s charting the economic performance of whatever was Australia’s best performing state at the time along with whatever was doing the worst. Even a quick look at it shows that the gap between Australia’s states has been narrowing over time, not widening.




On jobs, where NSW is commonly believed to be Australia’s basket-case and Western Australia our nirvana, the gap has almost closed.

Statistics compiled for the Governor show that during the year to January employment grew by 2.1 per cent in NSW and 2.4 per cent in Victoria. In the supposed boom state of Western Australia it grew by a broadly similar 2.2 per cent.

(Only in Queensland was jobs growth still racing ahead, at 5.4 per cent. The ACT figure - not in the information compiled by the Bank - is 4 per cent.)

At times in his first solo appearance before the parliamentary committee on Wednesday the Governor appeared to show frustration with its insistence that there were two quite different Australias.

Told by the Committee Chair, Liberal Bruce Baird that “some economists believe that Western Australia’s economy is growing faster than China’s while New South Wales is in recession” he replied with a tutorial in statistics.

He said it was true that New South Wales was growing below average at the moment. “That is not at all surprising. In the current circumstances it will not be Western Australia or Queensland that grow below average; they will be above average, helping to pull the average up.”

This did not mean that NSW and the rest of southeastern Australia were not sharing in the benefits of Australia’s minerals-fuelled prosperity. The connectedness of Australia meant that the rising tide in the west and north was lifting all of Australia’s boats. NSW, the ACT, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania were better off with the minerals boom than without it.

The NSW rate of unemployment, admittedly the highest in the country, was just 5 per cent - a rate once thought unattainably low. And employment was growing in that so-called basket state, which made it unlikely that it was in recession.

Australia was enjoying a boom in minerals prices not seen in most Australian’s lifetimes. It was completely unsurprising that it should benefit Australia’s mining states first. “The terms of trade for Australia are at the highest level since the early 1950s. That is not an event that comes along very often. That does have a very big effect on Western Australia,” the Governor said. But the benefits were fanning out.

He might have added that the ACT is particularly big recipient of recycled mining income. The boom in mining in Australia’s west and north is feeding through into record and rising company profits that are pushing the Commonwealth’s tax take up to new highs. Much of this money gets spent on extra government programs (and many more of them will be set up in this election year) and many of them get administered in the ACT.

Right now the boom in the ACT appears to be putting especial pressure on ACT rents, but Governor Stevens was keen to point out that here as well the differences between Australias states are no where near as wide as is believed. After soaring more quickly than the rest of Australia, house prices in Perth are easing off, and the rental market is in bad shape nationwide.

“Rental vacancy rates are low right around the country; no particular region stands out all that much. It is quite common. But let us think back to what the fundamental economics are here,” Stevens said.

“The fact is that because of the much higher price level for housing around the country the rental yield, which is the actual running yield as a return to the investor for holding that investment, is quite low. In the period when the investor was getting a return from price appreciation he was getting some of the return that way. But it is hardly sustainable for a major asset market to continually give you most of your return through capital appreciation.”

The Governor said that rental yields would have to rise.

“That could happen by the rents going up; it could happen by the prices coming down… One way or another that higher rental yield will need to be re-established and that will alleviate this excess demand situation.”

Governor Stevens is an optimist. He believes that, left to themselves most financial markets sort themselves out even if there are “a few bumps on the road” along the way. He lamented on Wednesday that to the media “everything is a crisis”. But not to him.

Even big promises of extra government spending in the coming election won’t worry him much. He told the committee that most of this year’s election promises would “sound like a lot of money over five years, but in any one year - and in particular in the year or two ahead, which is when we are trying to have our influence - the effects may not be as big”.

As well: “We do not know which of these proposals will actually be implemented. We cannot know that this side of polling day. All I would say is that I think it is generally accepted on both sides that we need to keep the public finances in good, long-run shape. By and large, we have done that for quite a long time now, stretching back many years. It is a truism to say that clearly that needs to continue, but I think everybody knows that, don’t they?”

Mid-last year Stevens was invited to Melbourne to speak on “risk and the macro economy”. He took off in a light plane from Sydney’s Bankstown Airport and flew himself, taking an instructor along for instrument training.

As a recreational pilot he has seen more of Australia than most, and he knows how inconnected it is. The new Governor gaves the impression this week that he was not too concerned by risk, and he knews how to handle it.
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Thursday, February 22, 2007

The Treasurer takes on the People for Ethical Treatment of Animals: "I am not trying to shut down free speech"

Treasurer Peter Costello is to amend the law to make it easier to take legal action against an animal rights group calling for a boycott of stores selling Australian wool.

People for Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) is currently being sued by Australian Wool Innovation Ltd under sections 45D and 45E of the Trade Practices Act on the ground that it has organized an illegal secondary boycott.

The amendment announced by the Treasurer yesterday will enable the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to bring its own action against PETA and seek damages...

Addressing the Pastoralists And Graziers Association of Western Australia Mr Costello identified PETA which he said had been joined by the tennis legend Martina Navratilova and the popstar “Pink” as the main target of the leglislation.

"We're going to amend the law so the ACCC can bring legal action on behalf of all Australian farmers, on behalf of those who are tying to boycott their wool, and boycott their wool on these spurious grounds," he said.

Navratilova and Pink have both campaigned against mulesing – the removal of skin from the rear of Marino sheep to prevent flystrike – and called for a consumer boycott of American and British stores that sell Australian wool. After a visit to Australia early this year Pink withdrew her support from the campaign.

Mr Costello said that he was not trying to shut down free speech. “Martina Navratilova and Pink will still be able to attack Australian wool as they do, ignorantly – it is just that people who organise boycotts that cost farmers money, won’t be able to continue with their boycotts,” he said.

The leader of the Greens Bob Brown warned the proposed change could turn the ACCC into a new McCarthy Committee and pledged to oppose it in the Senate.

“The Treasurer is proposing to give the ACCC the power to intervene on behalf of corporate Australia in disputes with community groups. In the past, community pressure has highlighted the death of dolphins in the tuna industry and the destruction of old growth logging. Under the Treasurer's plan it would be the deep pockets of the taxpayer and the imprimatur of the ACCC that was deployed against community groups rather than the current situation in which companies have to fund their own actions,” he said.

Section 45D makes it illegal for two people to act together to hinder or prevent a third person from supplying goods or services to, or acquiring goods or services from, a fourth person. In theory it could apply to health-related boycotts such as those dealing with the sale of cigarettes or the promotion of breast milk substitutes.

But legal experts contacted by the Canberra Times said to date the Australian courts had interpreted the section narrowly. Political campaigns had not been held to prevent or hinder trade. On its face, the Treasurer’s proposed amendment did not change that.

“The amendment he has come up with has nothing to do with whether or not conduct is illegal. For him to suggest that he is now arming the ACCC with the ability to take action against people who organize consumer boycotts, he hasn’t made any change to the law of section 45D at all,” said one practitioner who asked not be named.

The case Federal Court mounted by Australian Wool Innovation Ltd and 102 individual woolgrowers against PETA is set down for trial in the Federal Court at the end of this year.
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Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Want more mathematics and science teachers? Try something else, anything else.

A key part of Kevin Rudd’s promised “education revolution” has come under attack from a former top Labor advisor.

The Labor leader last month promised to spend $111 million cutting the Higher Education Contribution charge for university students studying maths and science as a way of attacking the shortage of qualified maths and science schoolteachers.

Under Mr Rudd’s plan the HECS charge facing maths and science students would fall from $7,118 to $3,998 per year. He has also promised to have the government meet half of the HECS repayments of maths and science graduates for up to 5 years if they take up employment in an occupation such as teaching.

Economist Bruce Chapman of the Research School of Social Sciences at the ANU designed the HECS scheme in 1988 while working as an advisor to the Labor education minister John Dawkins. He later worked as an advisor to the Labor Prime Minister Paul Keating.

In a review of the Kevin Rudd proposal to be published today Professor Chapman says that despite Labor’s claims, cutting in the HECS charge is “unlikely to have discernible effects on enrolments in the short term”...

In 1997 the incoming Howard government adjusted all of the HECS charges, more than doubled the charge for students studying law. Professor Chapman says there was hardly any change in enrolment numbers as a result.

“This does not auger well for the likelihood of [HECS cuts] being an effective instrument in the short term to increase the supply of maths and science education students”, his paper says.

“A significant amount of research over the years has consistently found that changes to HECS, even large changes to HECS, have only tiny effects on the private financial return to having a degree.”

Professor Chapman also points out that in Australia the composition of enrolments at universities depends not on student demand but on the number of places offered. “The composition of enrolments is essentially agreed between the government and individual universities, and there is not a lot of change between years.”
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