Showing posts with label europe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label europe. Show all posts

Monday, January 16, 2012

'We warn the Tzar': Gillard lectures Europe

Heaven knows why

Prime Minister Gillard has rubbed salt into the wounds of European nations reeling from weekend credit downgrades, declaring they had it coming to them for avoiding tough decisions.

Speaking after Standard and Poor’s stripped France and Austria of their prized triple-A ratings and downgraded Italy, Portugal, Spain, Cyprus, Malta, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia Ms Gillard said the moves were the “price to be paid” by governments who had put off reforms.

“For too many years, European governments have deferred the nation-building productivity-enhancing reforms which Australia has made the foundation of our dynamic and resilient economy,” she said in a Sunday statement.

“In stark contrast to Europe,” Australia had strict fiscal rules that would return it to surplus in 2012-13.

European leaders should “swiftly undertake structural reforms to boost their economic potential and lift growth”.

“They must implement credible medium-term plans to put their budgets on a sustainable footing, because taxpayers rightly expect governments to manage their money prudently,” Ms Gillard said.

But leading Australian economist Shane Oliver warned that swift action to repair European budgets could cut growth further...

‘‘Fiscal austerity leads to economic deterioration and budget deficits blown out. It has the effect of worsening the economic outlook,’’ the AMP economist told the Herald.

Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey lambasted Ms Gillard for the intervention saying it was “a little rich” for the prime minister to lecture Europe.

“She and her treasurer have presided over a massive blowout in Australia's debt and turned strong budget surpluses into record deficits. Voters won't forget pink batts, cash for clunkers, building the education revolution and $900 cheques to dead people,” he said.

The United States has had its credit rating cut from triple-A to double-A in August without an intervention by the prime minister.

The downgrades leave Germany the only major economy using the euro to maintain a triple-A rating. Portugal and Cyprus have had their ratings cut to junk status.

The decision endangers the triple-A rating used by the European Financial Stability Facility to borrow cheaply and lend to struggling eurozone members. France is the Fund’s second-biggest guarantor.

Ahead of the downgrade the head of the French central bank Christian Noyer appealed to Standard and Poor’s to strip Britain of its top rating before France.

"They should start by downgrading the United Kingdom, which has higher deficits, as much debt, more inflation, and less growth than we do, and whose credit is collapsing,” he said.

British Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg told French Prime Minister Francois Fillon the suggestion was "unacceptable" and asked him t "calm the rhetoric."

The UK has been spared the latest downgrade, not being part of the so-called eurozone that that uses the shared European currency.

The Australian dollar is at close to an all-time high against the euro after the downgrades, buying 81.41 euro cents.

Published in today's SMH and Age


FROM THE PRIME MINISTER:

The credit rating downgrades we've seen in Europe reflect the price to be paid by national governments who have put off the tough reforms needed to secure strong and sustainable long-term economic growth.

For too many years, European governments have deferred the nation-building productivity enhancing reforms which Australia has made the foundation of our dynamic and resilient economy.

European leaders must swiftly undertake structural reforms to boost their economic potential and lift growth.

They must implement credible medium-term plans to put their budgets on a sustainable footing, because taxpayers rightly expect governments to manage their money prudently and global financial markets demand responsible fiscal management.

That's precisely why when we put in place our recession beating stimulus, we also put in place the strict fiscal rules that have us on track to return to surplus in 2012-13.

This is in stark contrast to Europe which is facing deficits as far as the eye can see and net debt 10 times that of Australia.

In fact, Australia just recently achieved the coveted, gold plated AAA-rating from all three global ratings agencies - for the first time in our history - the contrast with Europe could not be more stark.

While global volatility will inevitably impact us here at home, Australians can take confidence in our rock-solid economic fundamentals: we’ve got strong growth, contained inflation, low unemployment and very low debt.

The Government will keep taking the tough decisions needed to secure a strong, productive and sustainable Australian economy for the future.



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Thursday, December 15, 2011

Bleak Christmas? Europe is scaring us

Christmas is looking bleaker after the latest cut in interest rates failed to lift consumer confidence.

The Westpac Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index slipped 8 per cent after last week’s interest rate cut instead of bouncing as usually happens following interest rate easings.

“The most likely explanation is that concerns over the reasons behind the cut have overwhelmed the perceived benefits of the cut” said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans.

Asked which news items they recalled in the past month only 31 per cent remembered hearing about interest rates. But 60 per cent had heard about economic conditions and 56 per cent about international conditions.

“The constant stream of news on developments in Europe will have had an impact. The news on economic conditions, international conditions and budget and taxation was considered the worst since 2008,” Mr Evans said.

The proportion of people believing now was a good time to buy a major household item slipped 10 per cent, meaning pessimists outweighed optimists for the first time since the 2008...

Views about economic conditions in the year ahead slipped 19 per cent, views about economic conditions over the next five years slipped 14 per cent.

“Risk aversion increased markedly. When asked about the wisest place for savings 27 per cent nominated paying down debt, up from 19 per cent in September. It’s the second highest result on result on record.”

ComSec economist Savanth Sebastian said the the new conservatism was disturbing.

“Consumers are clearly batting down the hatches, using savings to cut their debt levels, unwilling to take on risk and curbing spending.”

“They harbour reservations about what lies ahead. If consumer sentiment doesn’t lift, retailers and policymakers alike will have genuine reasons to be very worried.”

Reserve Bank deputy governor Ric Battellino told a Sydney conference the European problems were likely to worsen and spill over into the Australian economy.

“It is possible a combination of credible fiscal commitments by governments and short-term support from the European central bank and International Monetary Fund will provide a solution that is relatively benign,” he said.

“However, other outcomes, including some disruptive event such as a change in the composition of the euro area, cannot be ruled out.”

“We need to remain alert to the risks.”

Published in today's SMH



European Financial Developments - Ric Battelino


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Wednesday, December 14, 2011

If I hear one more person tell me to bring down the dollar - straight talk from Parkinson

Treasury boss Martin Parkinson is losing patience with people who call for action to bring down the dollar.

“I will be completely open with you,” he told the Sydney Institute last night. “Anybody who thinks you talk down the dollar or talk up the dollar is a fool.”

“I mean what drives the dollar? What’s driven it up is the rising terms of trade. The world is trying to give us a massive amount of wealth.”

“If I tried to lower the dollar I would be really saying I am going to take part of that wealth, pour petrol on it, and I’m going to burn it.”

“If you want to live in that world, that’s fine, but I don’t think it’s sensible for the long-term living standards of the Australian people.”

The Treasury secretary also took a swipe at ratings agencies who he said were trying to overcompensate for past mistakes...

“They are becoming mechanistic and excessively simplistic, running the risk of moving from excessive optimism to excessive pessimism every time they look at a country or firm. If you’ve got a small check list of indicators and you bang through it, you never really understand the circumstances.”

China was succeeding in slowing its economy without a hard landing. “I am not worried about it,” Dr Parkinson said. “The more we can get them to start to using proper instruments of monetary policy rather than direct lending controls the better we will all be.”

Europe would almost certainly enter recession next year. The only question was about how deep it would be and how long it would last.

“Our assessment is that if everything goes well the recession could be shallow and over soon,” he said. “ If it doesn’t it could be protracted indeed.”

Greece in particular was in a vicious circle. Every time it reassessed its economic situation it revised down growth and wound back its budget, pushing down economic growth further.

Its economy was now expected to sink 8 per cent over two years and the budget would need to shrink almost 25 per cent over three years.

Fortunes in the United States appear to have turned, but the failure of the Congressional committee tasked with finding budget savings has triggered automatic spending cuts that were likely to cut US GDP by up to 0.75 percentage points in 2013, “a potentially significant shock to what was still likely to be only a still modest recovery”.

Published in today's SMH and Age


A Year in Retrospect, A Decade in Prospect - Dr Martin Parkinson


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Saturday, December 10, 2011

Eurozone debt: Who owes what to whom?

Interactive graphic from the BBC.

Includes the US.

Click to play around:


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