What do you say when you've nothing to say? You declare you're ''open for business''. That's what South Australia did when it lost Mitsubishi in 2008. Left with 61 hectares of factory space, it advertised an''opportunity''.
Six years on, the site remains mostly empty. The government will move in departments of a university and some TAFE colleges, it has attracted some small businesses and a data centre and its website continues to proclaim: ''Right place, right time.''
Two-thirds of the workers who lost their jobs after an earlier Mitsubishi closure were employed on lower wages. One-third job-hopped from casual job to causal job. South Australia's share of the national economy slumped one-third of one per cent.
It's a picture of the future facing Victoria as Alcoa, Toyota, Ford, Holden and much of Qantas leave. This state is just as dependent on manufacturing as is South Australia. In both states it provides one job in every 10. ''How to avoid South Australia's mistakes'' might just as well have been the title of the report handed to Prime Minister Tony Abbott on Friday.
Prepared by a committee including former Victorian industry minister Mark Birrell, it is addressed to the right level of government. Most international studies show it's the economy rather than anything the locals can do that determines how factory closures pan out. John Spoehr of the Australian Workplace Innovation and Social Research Centre sums up the evidence in a paper just published by the City of Playford, which takes in the Holden plant in Adelaide. He says it is far easier for displaced workers to slot into new jobs when the economy is booming. Workers in the arc that takes in Avalon, Geelong and Point Henry might have been OK had their factories closed a decade or so back when the economy was revving up. They are less likely to be OK today.
Few new firms arise when the national economy is fairly flat. The best way to support the arc is to boost the national economy or at least not flatten it further.
If Abbott and treasurer Joe Hockey came from Victoria instead of Sydney, they might grasp the point. As much as they would like to start winding back the budget deficit, it is not the right time for the economy of Geelong and it is not the right time for the broader economies of Victoria and South Australia.
Slogans don't attract businesses. In the three months since Abbott declared Australia ''open for business'' ABS figures show planned mining investment collapsed 25 per cent and planned manufacturing investment 20 per cent. Economic conditions attract businesses, and cutbacks can make them worse.
Hockey's way out in the May budget might be to announce that many of the cuts recommended by his Commission of Audit will take place but not for some time, so as not to worsen conditions now.
Another would be to announce a number of big government-funded infrastructure programs, several of them near Geelong. It'd be a Band-Aid. Eventually those jobs would go. But it might be enough to last the arc until things pick up.