Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Governor Stevens pwned!

See Tim Colebatch this morning.

Governor Stevens this week argued that there were not really two Australias:

"While some events can lead to a divergence in economic conditions across Australia, overall these differences have not been especially large in recent times . . . What is remarkable, in fact, is that the differences are not, in the end, larger."

But here's what Stevens was saying back in February:

"Yes, I think it is going to be a two-speed economy . . . I think all those issues of geographical differences and industry differences are likely to re-emerge with a vengeance. The relative price of resources is high, that of manufactures is low. There are structural adjustment implications of this for our economy . . . they will, I think, probably intensify in the years ahead."

Some extracts from Tim Colebatch:

"In my next life, I want to be a central bank governor. People fawn on you, whatever you say is taken as gospel, and others rarely challenge it...

The Reserve chief played down the risk of that resources boom dividing Australia into a two-speed economy. Indeed, he tried to persuade his audience that this hadn't happened, and wouldn't happen.

The only evidence he presented was a handful of graphs demonstrating that over a 10-year or 15-year time period, movements in prices and unemployment rates had differed less in the six Australian states than in the 50 states of the US or the 27 countries of the European Union. You don't say. I wonder if that might have something to do with the fact that states are always more alike than countries. Or that six units of anything offer less scope for differences than 27 or 50.

The Guv's choice of time frame also missed the point. We were not a two-speed economy 10 or 15 years ago. This emerged in the past five years, as mining investment and export revenues grew exponentially, the Reserve responded by driving up interest rates, which drove up the dollar, which made significant parts of our manufacturing, agricultural and tourism industries uncompetitive.

That is why the two-speed economy became an issue. It is why we in Victoria fear the consequences of an even larger mining boom, and an even higher dollar, ahead.

It is why Stevens himself warned just seven months ago that the problems of a two-speed economy "are likely to re-emerge with a vengeance" and "will probably intensify in the years ahead"...

The new Glenn should listen to the old one.

Published in today's Age

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