Thursday, January 28, 2010

Expect the third Intergenerational Report Monday


The Treasurer has booked the Press Club.

Here's the first (2002) and the second (2007)


Related Posts

. Baby boomers get old?

. The Treasurer's unprescient look at the future

. Why Australia's 'aging timebomb' is fizzing

. The one graph that sums up today's intergenerational report

1 comments:

data jumble said...

Weird maths in the IGR2, Part 2: Chart 2.4: ‘Net migration and natural increase in population’
http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/1239/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=03_Part_2.htm

Govt this month predicted 35M by 2050 (now 22M).

Yr 2010 growth is about 250k migration + 110k births = 360k. Multiply by 40 years (assume constant number of migrants + births) = 14.4 million.

22M + 14M = 36M.
So far, so good if 35M is the plan.

But growth rate is now 2.2% (yes, bit 3rd World, but if agenda is to increase consumer spending each year, then - ). However, 22M @ 2.2% growth over 40 years is about 51.4M shopaholics/consumers. If govt reneges on this growth rate, the little Aussie 'a la ponzi’economy will tank.

From Chart 2.4: looking at year 2047 and increase that year is about 130k (migration + births) or about 0.4% growth rate.

To top it off, Table2.2 ‘Australian population history and projections’ shows pop at 28.5M.

2050 Population = 28.5M, 35M or 51M?
Growth rate = 0.4% or 2.2% ??

Anyone got any idea what is happening or is it a BYO data jumble?

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