Friday, February 06, 2009
REALITY CHECK: "It's the children I'm thinking about"
"Ten little toes from Mum and Dad... $9,500 debt from Kevin Rudd"
-- Liberal Party YouTube advertisement, using a photo of a baby's toes to argue that Kevin Rudd plans to lump every Australian with $9,500 in debt.
IT'S NOTHING like $9,500 as things stand. Kevin Rudd is planning to spend $42 billion over two years, not the $200 billion needed justify the Liberal Party's calculation. But the bills before the Senate do allow his government to borrow up to $200 billion if needed. It's like a credit limit. It's not a debt unless you use it.
And the government has undertaken to pay back the debt as the economy recovers. In its words, it will "bank any increase in tax receipts associated with economic recovery".
But even if it didn't, a few thousand dollars would hardly a burden for our children.
The Treasury's 2007 Intergenerational Report expects real GDP per person to grow by an average an average of 1.6 per cent per year for each of the next 40 years. The magic of compound growth means that by then each of our children would be producing almost twice as much as we do now, and most probably earning almost twice as much as well.
It would become far easier for our children to pay off that debt than it is for us right now, in the same way as right now each of us find it easier to pay off our debts as our real income rises.
And in any case the Opposition is also planning to run up debts...
Its plan to bring forward to January the tax cuts legislated for this July and next July would cost $11 billion.
The exact amount of debt that would be run up is under the control of neither side of politics.
It depends on the economy. The worse it gets the bigger the government's debt gets (or the smaller its savings get), automatically. Every time an Australian loses a job, for example, the governments tax income falls and its spending on benefits climbs.
As the economy picks up and Australians get jobs back, the process unwinds, also automatically.
The Opposition's planned early tax cuts are smaller than the government's planned bonus payments, but not that different in other respects.
The Opposition leader decries the "sugar hit" inherent in upfront stimulus cheques, but his own proposal to bring forward the legislated tax cuts to January would itself produce a sugar hit. The first adjusted pay packets, accounting for several months of backdated income tax cuts, would be pretty hefty.
But it wouldn't be a permanent drain on the Budget as the Treasurer Wayne Swan says it would. The tax cuts were coming any way.
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8 comments:
Obviously done before the ABS Dec sales report came out, proving him totally wrong about hoe effective the cash splash would be.
I love how now they care about future generations, pity the liberals doesn't apply that same logic to climate change
Labor's commitment was to "keep the budget in surplus over the cycle". UEFO now forecasts a deficit for 08/09 of $22bn, followed in subsequent years by deficits of $33.3bn, $31.5bn and $23.9bn. Maybe its going to be a very long 'cycle,' waiting for a magic surplus that will even begin to repay over $110bn debt nowhere in sight. Are there any bets running on what year Rudd and Swan might ever deliver a surplus?
See, this is where not being an economist makes it difficult to understand things. If we are in middle (although given we don't know when it will end, this is just a guess) of the worst economic crisis the world has known, and no-one has any money, where do you borrow 200b from?
"Maybe its going to be a very long 'cycle"
Well IF, maybe you've missed the financial news of the past year, but most economists believe that this is the worst global financial situation since the Great Depression. I believe such times require significant stimulatory measures.
Al
And many economists expect this severe economic downturn to be fairly protracted.
Al
I think some people should be reading some history of the Great Depression. FDR undertook lots of Keynesian pump priming, and in 1937 after several years of his presidency the US went deeper into depression. The Great Depression was ended by World War II. No economist has any idea if these stimulation packages will do any good.
Peter, you should check Ken Henry's and other Treasury officials' testimony at the Senate Committee last Thursday. They have admitted that Australia will pretty much be in $200 billion debt at the end of the forward estimates period as a result of the stimulus package and other things like SPVs for property developers. Keep in mind this is gross debt. http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/commttee/S11712.pdf (page 31)
Dear most-recent Anonymous.
Thanks.
This Treasury answer also deals with the point. The Treasury thinks we most probably will get to $200 billion gross, but most of it will be due to economic deterioration rather than the stimulus package.
It probably will be $9,500 debt per person. But most of it won't be because of "Kevin Rudd's plan." We would also get it under Malcolm Turnbull's plan.
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