Sunday, February 08, 2009

Edge of catastrophe?

"Edge of catastrophe? What a load of tosh," writes a commentator.

Here's how things stand in the US right now, courtesy of the House Speaker's office (click to enlarge):



Time magazine's Karen Tumulty writes: If you are having trouble reading the fine print, the blue line shows job losses in the 1990 recession; the red line is 2001, and the green line is the path we are on now.

She adds: To clarify, these are not projections. This is actual job-loss data.

The Speaker's office explains:

"This chart compares the job loss so far in this recession to job losses in the 1990-1991 recession and the 2001 recession -- showing how dramatic and unprecedented the job loss over the last 13 months has been. Over the last 13 months, our economy has lost a total of 3.6 million jobs – and continuing job losses in the next few months are predicted.

By comparison, we lost a total of 1.6 million jobs in the 1990-1991 recession, before the economy began turning around and jobs began increasing; and we lost a total of 2.7 million jobs in the 2001 recession, before the economy began turning around and jobs began increasing."

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Peter,

Australia isn't on the edge of catastrophe! Compare current conditions with previous recessions.

What happened in Victoria this weekend was a catastrophe. Australia's economy is nothing like that.

I think it is important that everyone keep their heads in crises.

Peter Martin said...

Australia most certainly is not on the edge of catastrophe. Recession, yes. Catastrophe, no.

The Weatherman said...

Peter - the graph you show there isn't normalised for the growth in job numbers between those dates. Calculated Risk shows the same thing adjusted for job numbers, and it's much less alarmist:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SZCIDv4ozKI/AAAAAAAAEf4/zzXkVww1hCg/s1600-h/JobLossesPostWarII.jpg