Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Bloody hell! Turnbull's stand:


"The Coalition will oppose the Rudd Government’s latest $42 billion expenditure package because it is not a responsible or sustainable way to run the national economy.

We know this decision will not be popular, but it is the right decision.

The Prime Minister yesterday demanded that the House of Representatives approve $42 billion in expenditure within 48 hours: almost a billion dollars an hour.

We consider that the package is poorly targeted, ill-thought through and irresponsible in today’s economic climate...

At this stage we believe a package of between $15-20 billion would be more affordable and appropriate.

The objective of any package must be to protect and create jobs, support small business and strengthen our economy. This package will not achieve this.

We have said time and again that the most important issue this year is jobs.

We look at this package and we see little evidence that it will underpin the jobs of Australians.

There is no evidence the Government’s $10.4 billion spending package before Christmas created the 75,000 jobs Mr Rudd promised.

Almost all economists agree that the recession has a long way to go. And yet the Rudd Labor Government is panicking, firing all its bullets at the first engagement.

And even with his reckless cash hand-outs and massive, debt-fuelled spending, the Prime Minister’s package predicts unemployment will top 7% in just over a year – another 300,000 Australians out of work.

We believe the Senate should sit next week to ensure proper detailed scrutiny of this package, which contains the largest increase in government expenditure in 35 years.

The previous Labor Government left a legacy of $96 billion in government debt and the Budget had been in deficit for six successive years. It took the Australian people a decade to repay this debt.

Now, another Labor Government is asking us, on behalf of those hard working Australians to agree to plunge headlong back into large deficits and significant debt.

Mr Rudd’s plan asks the Parliament’s permission to take the nation $200 billion into deficit – $9,500 debt for every Australian.

Today I outline an alternate response which will be more effective in protecting Australians from the effects of the financial crisis.

It is an approach which clearly outlines the difference between the Coalition and Labor.

It is an approach borne out of a predisposition towards experienced, prudent economic management.

It is an approach which recognises the reality of a Budget deficit but aims to minimise public debt.

We propose that the permanent tax cuts currently scheduled for 1 July 2009 and 1 July 2010 be brought forward, and backdated to 1 January this year.

By the middle of 2010 this would leave a two-income household earning $80,000 approximately $1700 better off.

Perhaps the largest gap in the Government package is the lack of measures that directly and broadly support employment – particularly employment in the small business sector.

While accelerated depreciation has some merit, the Coalition believes measures that more directly, immediately improve the cash flow position of small firms and help them protect and create jobs are preferable.

One proposal the Coalition is seeking to discuss with the Government is the Commonwealth paying a portion of the Superannuation Guarantee Levy on behalf of small employers (those with 20 or fewer staff) for the next two years. This measure will directly improve the cash position of small firms, directly reduce the costs of employment, and so directly contribute to preserving jobs.

These measures are not only fairer. They also represent a better targeted and more effective stimulus for the economy. They better protect jobs.

The Coalition invites the Government to sit down and discuss alternative stimulus measures which would be responsible and allow sufficient capacity in public finances to meet emerging challenges.

The Coalition is committed to sound economic management and to ensuring that Government spending is of high quality and reduces the burden on Australian taxpayers and their children."

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Peter - why not? Why not make a stand? Is politics to be reduced to knee-jerk reactions before a crisis even eventuates?

People are losing their heads. Unemployment is 4.5%. None of this stimulus package aims to stop unemployment rising. Perhaps it is better to keep the powder dry for when people are really suffering.

Let's get some perspective.

Marek said...

Its the new Kim Beazley! Remember his stance about tax cuts in 2005, absolute disaster.

Doesn't mater that he may have had a good point, same way as it doesn't matter now. All the liberals are doing is perpetuating the feeling that they have their heads in the sand.

Bruno Baccaterro said...

Anonymous,

What makes you think that this spending is a knee jerk reaction? The only people not supporting it are the opposition and some fellow travellers.

Unless you are a supply-side absolutist:

-tax cuts (particularly bringing ones already planned forward) will offer far less stimulus in the short term than spending projects

-it is far less costly to address collapsing consumer and investor confidence and rising unemployment earlier rather than after the horse has bolted

Turnbull is playing a dangerous game of risk with his party's credibility. He either gets his ego gratified and wins the next election on the back of a deep recession / deficit or he sends his party into a long term opposition. This is very consistent with a man who was always indifferent which party he led in the first place

Anonymous said...

Turnbull is showing how out of touch with reality he is. To blanketely oppose this entire legislation is madness. His proposal to bring the future tax cuts forward would create much less stimulus than the Government's spending package.

Al

Marek said...

Bernard Keane latest piece is worth a read

http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20090204-Turnbull-opposes-stimulus.html

Anonymous said...

I am not a supply-side economist.

I just believe that the rush to pass this is very reminiscent of Paulson and Bernanke's plan to bailout the US banking sector: do this or the economy dies.

Nicholas Gruen said that the plans should be exposed to the public for review and consultation. Why the rush?

Anonymous said...

Agreed anon. There should be more debate on this package. Turnbull is right - if this mess has another few years to run, which it seems to, then a number of smaller outlays might be more prudent.

Put in perspective, US has a population about x15 Aus, so $42B is equivalent to a US bailout of about $630B plus the Nov bailout here of $10B makes for a total equivalent bailout of $780B. We beat the US at their own game called Bailout.

And what do we get for it - some pink batts, enough spending money for short holiday, a bit of spring clean of schools, and some much needed infrastructure (really the only thing needed is public infrastructure).

Anonymous said...

Both politics and economic theory advocates handing out the stimilus now rather than later. Keeping people employed is far easier than getting someone off unemployment.

Grog said...

Anon 6:57 - the US bail out is about 7-8% of the USA GDP, Rudd's is about 2% of Aust GDP. ie Rudd's is much, much smaller in comparative terms.

gregoz said...

In 18 months time when the Federal Government has 70-100 billion dollars in debt and we are still in recession Malcolm Turnbull can say he didn't support it.

In 18 months time when unemployment is even higher and the Federal Government has no money left for stimulus - Malcolm Turnbull will look very sensible.

Anonymous said...

I just checked the ATO website for the next tax rate change.

High income earners like Mr Turnbull, who say earn $180k plus, will be better off by $2600 per year.

Someone who is trying to bring forward a large income tax for himself and at the same time trying to shaft low income earners by voting against a $950 bonus has no credibility.