Monday, December 12, 2011

Ten predictions guaranteed in 2012

Nathan Bell in The Age:

1. A lot of things will happen that no forecaster thought to include in their predictions for 2012. These events will be the obvious consequences of the current economic and political environment. So obvious, in fact, that they weren’t included in the predictions.

2. Many things won’t happen that forecasters did include in their predictions for 2012. This will be a result of unforeseen circumstances and six sigma events, annual anomalies that crop up one in a million years.

3. A small number of the vast number of predictions about 2012 will randomly come true and the predictors will be proclaimed gurus. This will be despite the fact that it was their 1000thprediction and the first one they got right.

4. All predictions will be adjusted throughout the year so that the forecaster’s final prognostications, announced on Christmas Eve, will be very close to accurate.

5. Those fund managers that outperform for the year will cite their skills, systems, intelligence and uncanny ability to time the market as the reasons for their outperformance. While acknowledging that past returns are no guarantee of future returns, the past returns will be included in advertising materials in very large font.

6. Those that underperform will cite the randomness of markets and that any one bad year will obviously be followed by a good one, because underlying it all they have superior skills...

Continued at The Age.

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