Friday, May 01, 2009

Warwick McKibbin on pig flu

In BusinessSpectator

. He believes the current swine flu outbreak is approaching the 'mild impact' scenario for a pandemic

. Economic modelling shows the impact of a mild scenario would cost the global economy $360 billion

. The impact on Australia of the mild scenario would be a GDP reduction of about eight tenths of a per cent

. The US now has the largest number of reported cases and that can be devastating in the short term for an economy

. McKibbin applied for an Australian government grant to do real-time monitoring of the economic impact of a flu pandemic, but was rejected

. A pandemic will not extend the financial crisis, but the downturn will go deeper than expected this year and have a sharper than expected recovery

Meanwhile Andrew Leigh reports that Intrade has opened betting markets on Swine Flu