Friday, May 01, 2009
Warwick McKibbin on pig flu
In BusinessSpectator
. He believes the current swine flu outbreak is approaching the 'mild impact' scenario for a pandemic
. Economic modelling shows the impact of a mild scenario would cost the global economy $360 billion
. The impact on Australia of the mild scenario would be a GDP reduction of about eight tenths of a per cent
. The US now has the largest number of reported cases and that can be devastating in the short term for an economy
. McKibbin applied for an Australian government grant to do real-time monitoring of the economic impact of a flu pandemic, but was rejected
. A pandemic will not extend the financial crisis, but the downturn will go deeper than expected this year and have a sharper than expected recovery
Meanwhile Andrew Leigh reports that Intrade has opened betting markets on Swine Flu