Thursday, February 15, 2007

The money shifts to Rudd

Want to bet on Labor winning the federal election?

You've left it too late.

My colleague Andrew Fraser reports in this morning's Canberra Times that for the first time the weight of money on Centrebet is predicting a Labor win:

One of the most trusted indicators of voting intention has shifted for the first time to predict that Kevin Rudd will lead Labor to victory at this year's election.

Centrebet, which prides itself on its accuracy ahead of much of the opinion polling, has installed Mr Rudd as the $1.80 favourite ahead of Prime Minister John Howard ($1.90) in the race for The Lodge. There has been something of a plunge, with Labor having been at $2.75 when Mr Rudd took over only 2 months ago, when the Coalition had been at $1.40.

Labor is a far shorter favourite to retain power at the March 24 NSW election, with a Centrebet quote of $1.20 against the Coalition of Peter Debnam at $4.

Andrew Leigh has written rather a lot about the predictive power of political betting.