From Stephen Koukoulas, who explains:
The post is a simple factually based report and at the moment draws no conclusions on causality, correlations or linkages between the carbon price starting and movements in the various indicators.
Since end June 2012
Official cash rate: No change
Australian dollar (vs USD): +1.8%
10 year govt bond yield: -0.12 percentage points
ASX200: +1.9%
RP Data house prices: +0.6%
Change in Housing Wealth: +$24 billion
Westpac index of Consumer sentiment: +3.7%
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15 comments:
What a ridiculous repost. If you were being honest you and Steve would include
-27,000 employed
+0.1 ppts unemployment rate
-0.2 ppts participation rate.
This in no way suggests that the carbon tax is responsible but its idiotic to post the good data and imply that its all ok. Grow up!
Dear Anonymous,
How can I put this...
We don't yet have employment figures for July.
The figures you quoted were for the change between May and June.
When we do get post-carbon tax figures maybe Stephen will post them. He is doing updates.
I don't want him to ever grow up.
What about wholesale price of electricity?
End of June: $30 MWh
July: $60 MWh
That's a big increase.
(Of course the aim of the tax was to increase such prices - it is hardly an unintended consequence)
You're right, its not an unintended consequence. I would love to see an analysis of the impact of a 100% increase in wholesale prices on retail prices. I doubt the pass-through would also be 100%, but it wouldn't be trivial either.
In any case, if SK wants to be factual, he should publish these figures as well.
the wholesale electrical price data set is a little bizarre
http://www.aemo.com.au/electricity/NEM-Data/Average-Price-Tables.aspx
According to the data SA went from -$103 to +$283 with 2 days. WTF!
The point is Pete that SK is being just as dimwitted as those that blame the tax for everything. It's just stupid to cherry pick data to suit your bias. Reposting it just shows ur own bias. I don't care either way but if u want ppl to take ur arguments seriously I'd stop this sort of childish idiocy.
I don't think SK has cherry picked.
These are the standard economic indicators.
As more become available (including employment) he will add them.
I'll repost. Neither I nor him (nor you) know what they will show.
Let's see.
The standard prices indicator is the CPI. The first one covering the introduction of the carbon tax will be released in October.
It'll be interesting.
This is a silly argument Pete. There will be no link that can be drawn until well down the track and it will take more complex analysis than simply looking at broad aggregates. This sort of silly nonsense is what I'vecome to expect from Abbott and co and now ppl like u and SK are doing it. The quality of debate has fallen to a new low...well done.
You say:
no link that can be drawn until well down the track and it will take more complex analysis than simply looking at broad aggregates
Koukoulas says he:
at the moment draws no conclusions on causality, correlations or linkages
It would be fair to say you concur.
But given the forecasts that have been made of dramatic effects to flow from the carbon price it is important to keep track, as I imagine you would agree.
Maybe they will show up.
The dramatic claims of dramatic flow on effects are just silly and everyone who is being serious and not just trying to whip up fear about the scheme knows this. What is even sillier is immature posturing by SK and to a degree yourself.
These sort of debates are really a wastse of time and divert attention away from any informed debate. There are real concerns about how the tax/scheme will play out but this sort of tit for tat stupidity means that any debate that tackles the real issues is drowned out.
But I suppose its just a trend that is continuing with commentators like yourself
Koukoulas doesn't stand a hope in hell of drowning out the debate.
He is merely trying, in a small way, to ground it in reality.
Move on.
Hey Anonymous, Peter seems to have put facts out there that are true and accurate.
Your unemployment figures were for the wrong time period but none of the facts that Peter put forward were wrong or misleading, unlike what you put forward.
Why don't you write your own article that does better? Or perhaps you should write a thesis on the topic to make sure that no little detail is left off. Hopefully you won't use misleading figures like you did above. I'm sure that will be very time consuming - if you were putting it up on a blog - you might do one post every 6 months.
You are embarrasing yourself. Just as well you are anonymous. As Peter said, move on...
"The standard prices indicator is the CPI. The first one covering the introduction of the carbon tax will be released in October."
The TD Securities - Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge will be published before then. It will certainly attract much interest!
Too right Banking Cat.
Mon August 6.
Here's the entry in my diary:
TD Securities inflation gauge (first carbon tax figure) *****
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