NEWSFLASH! In September I will join The Conversation as its Business and Economy Editor. I have been honoured to work at The Age for the past ten years, originally alongside the legendry Tim Colebatch, and for the past four years as economics editor in my own right.

At The Conversation, my job will be to make the best thinking from Australia's 40 univerisites accessible to the widest possible audience. That means you. From the new year I will also write a weekly column.

On this site are most of the important things I have written for Fairfax and the ABC over the past few decades. I recommend the Search function. The site is a record for you, as well as me.

I'll continue to post great things from The Conversation and other places here, and also on Twitter and Facebook. Enjoy.

Friday, August 12, 2011

Consumer confidence by voting intention - I've made a graph



Thank you Michael Chua of the Melbourne Institute.


WHAT THE NUMBERS ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE MEAN

Each month the Melbourne Institute asks five questions:

. Family finances vs a year ago: better or worse?

. Family finances next 12 months: better or worse?

. Economic conditions next 12 months: better or worse?

. Economic conditions next 5 years: better or worse?

. Good or bad time to buy major household items?


For each question it subtracts the per cent who say worse/bad from the percentage who say better/good. It then adds 100.

The result gives an index number which is greater than 100 if there are more optimists than pessimists, less than 100 if there are more pessimists than optimists.

The overall index is an average of the five index numbers.

This means the more pessimistic the responses, the lower the index number.

Any result above 100 means optimists outweigh pessimists.


Related Posts

. Confidence is how low?

. We're confident. Not.

. We don't know how the carbon tax will work, so we're scared

. First floods, now carbon tax. Confidence on the floor


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