NEWSFLASH! In September I will join The Conversation as its Business and Economy Editor. I have been honoured to work at The Age for the past ten years, originally alongside the legendry Tim Colebatch, and for the past four years as economics editor in my own right.

At The Conversation, my job will be to make the best thinking from Australia's 40 univerisites accessible to the widest possible audience. That means you. From the new year I will also write a weekly column.

On this site are most of the important things I have written for Fairfax and the ABC over the past few decades. I recommend the Search function. The site is a record for you, as well as me.

I'll continue to post great things from The Conversation and other places here, and also on Twitter and Facebook. Enjoy.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Unbackable: Today's rate cut

Both Sportsbook and Centrebet have stopped taking bets. When they were, there was no possible combination of bets which would have allowed you to make money by merely predicting that rates will be cut.

A cut of 0.50 percentage points was by far the favourite, the first time since rates have been cut by that much since 2001.

The banks are likely to pass on only half of it.

The Reserve Bank's decision will be announced here at 2.30pm Australian Eastern Daylight time. (2.00pm in SA, 1.00pm in the NT, 1.30pm in Qld, and 11.30am in WA)