NEWSFLASH! In September I will join The Conversation as its Business and Economy Editor. I have been honoured to work at The Age for the past ten years, originally alongside the legendry Tim Colebatch, and for the past four years as economics editor in my own right.

At The Conversation, my job will be to make the best thinking from Australia's 40 univerisites accessible to the widest possible audience. That means you. From the new year I will also write a weekly column.

On this site are most of the important things I have written for Fairfax and the ABC over the past few decades. I recommend the Search function. The site is a record for you, as well as me.

I'll continue to post great things from The Conversation and other places here, and also on Twitter and Facebook. Enjoy.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

100,000 to be thrown out of work?

That's what today's Australian says:

"THE Reserve Bank is predicting an economic slowdown so severe that 100,000 people will be thrown out of work in the next 12 months, pushing the unemployment rate to 5 per cent and possibly higher if the financial crisis worsens."

In fact the Reserve Bank predicts that employment will GROW in the next twelve months, by 0.75 per cent.

Will the Reserve Bank complain? Who knows.

When I asked how The Australian concluded that the Reserve Bank was forecasting a drop in employment when it was in fact forecasting an increase, I was told that the newspaper meant that the Reserve Bank's forecasts implied that employment would grow by 100,000 people fewer than it would have.