Monday, November 01, 2010

The rate rise form guide

There is more than a horse race at stake Tuesday. There's also the future of Australian mortgages. The Reserve Bank has adjusted interest rates on each of the past four Melbourne Cup days, a coincidence that flows from its practice of meeting on the first Tuesday of each month.

Punters at had been overwhelmingly backing another hike Tuesday with the house prepared to pay out just 1.36 per $1 bet if the bank moved.

Wednesday's surprisingly low consumer price result turned the market around with the house now prepared to pay an impressive $2.65 if the Bank moves.

The futures market has done the same, slashing the implied likelihood of a hike from a 49 to 21 per cent.

Reserve Bank books garner firms such as SportsBet publicity but they are hardly money spinners...

The firm has $25,000 riding on the Reserve Bank decision, around $4 million on the Cup.

Since April it has the field to itself. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission warned off its competitor Centrebet threatening it with "court orders shutting down your business" if it continued "offering a derivative without a financial services licence".

SprotsBet's Hayden Lane says he doesn't know why ASIC has taken action against one firm and not the other and he will stop as soon as ASIC asks.

In the meantime Sportsbet is taking bets on whether the Australian dollar will hit one US dollar before the end of the year.

It hasn't paid out yet because the rules specify the Aussie must be worth more than one 1 $US at 4.00 pm on an Australian weekday, something that hasn't happened yet.

It is offering $2.65 for each $1 bet on parity this year, having found most punters don't believe it will happen.

Published in today's SMH

Asic to Centrebet

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