Saturday, December 10, 2011

Why can't a woman be more like a man? She can, if she avoids them


Gender Differences in Risk Aversion:
Do Single‐Sex Environments Affect their Development?

Alison Booth

Lina Cardona Sosa
and Patrick Nolen
University of Essex, 
Australian National University

November 2011

Abstract

Single‐sex classes within coeducational environments are likely to modify students' risk‐taking attitudes
in economically important ways. To test this, we designed a controlled experiment using first year
college students who made choices over real‐stakes lotteries at two distinct dates. Students were
randomly assigned to classes of three types: all female, all male, and coeducational. They were not
allowed to change group subsequently. We found that women are less likely to make risky choices than
men at both dates. However, after eight weeks in a single‐sex environment, women were significantly
more likely to choose the lottery than their counterparts in coeducational groups. These results are
robust to the inclusion of controls for IQ and for personality type, as well as to a number of sensitivity
tests. Our findings suggest that observed gender differences in behaviour under uncertainty found in
previous studies might partly reflect social learning rather than inherent gender traits.



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Australia is really good. The only people who don't believe it are...


Everyone is raving about Possum's Crikey post.

The are right. He is right.

Read the full thing here. Here's an extract.


"So this is our economic reality – we are the wealthiest nation in the world with 75.5% of our adult population making it into the global top 10%, our economy has grown faster than nearly all others (certainly faster than all other developed countries), our household income growth has been one of the fastest in the world (including our poor having income growth larger than everyone else’s rich!), we have the highest minimum wages in the world, the third lowest debt and the 6th lowest taxes in the OECD and are ranked 2nd on the United Nations Human Development Index.

And this didn’t happen by accident. This happened by design.

This happened because of 30 years of hard, tedious, extraordinarily difficult policy work that far, far too many of us now either take completely for granted, or have simply forgotten about. We have, without even realising it, created the most successful and unique economic and policy arrangement of the late 20th and early 21st century – the proof is in the pudding. A low tax nation with high quality, public funded institutions. A low debt nation with world leading human development and infrastructure. The wealthiest nation in the world where even though our rich get richer, our poor have income growth so extraordinary that it increases at a faster rate than the rich expect to experience anywhere else in the world but Australia. A nation where we enjoy the highest minimum wages in the world.

But so many of us simply deny it – the conservatives deny it because it’s more convenient to whip up hysteria about their political enemies. Filling the heads of Australians with complete lies for partisan advantage and not giving a pinch of the proverbial about the human damage that would be wrought if they ever succeeded in getting us to talk ourselves into a recession of our own making . That’s not to mention many of their ideologues – denial is an absolute must when any acknowledgement of our actual economic and social reality would be to admit that their extreme policy fetishes are just pissing in the wind.

The broad left in Australia deny it, because to admit our economic and social reality is to admit that we’ve actually solved most of the big problems that other nations are still grappling with, and they had little to do with it. The problems we have left in Australia are difficult and sophisticated, requiring a level of thoughtful engagement far beyond the scope of occupying Fuck Knows Where in tents. If the US government responded to the Occupy Wall Street movement by implementing a large policy program that Australia already has – Occupy Wall Street would declare victory and go to the pub!"
...


Read more >>

Eurozone debt: Who owes what to whom?

Interactive graphic from the BBC.

Includes the US.

Click to play around:


Read more >>

Friday, December 09, 2011

What's going down? In Victoria jobs, demand...

The Age
Fresh evidence has emerged suggesting Victoria is holding back the national economy, endangering budget forecasts.

One day after national accounts figures showed demand in Victoria fell during a quarter when it rose in four other states, yesterday’s employment figures showed Victoria losing 30,200 workers at a time when every other state was hiring.

In the first five months of the financial year NSW put on an extra 24,100 jobs, Queensland an extra 14,400 and Western Australia an extra 2500.

So big is the contraction in Victoria that it calls into question forecasts in the mid-year budget update released just last week.

In place of the budget forecast of 500,000 new jobs over two years the update predicted 114,000 new jobs in the current financial year and 173,000 the next.

The November employment figures show five months into the financial year Australia has created 24,500 new jobs - only half as many as would be expected if the official forecasts on track...

A spokeswoman for state Treasurer Kim Wells insisted things were about to turn up saying said the government was ''implementing a clear plan" to boost the economy through increased business investment, productivity growth and job creation.

"This week alone a number of companies have announced plans to increase jobs and investment in Melbourne and regional Victoria, this will continue over the coming weeks with a series of major job announcements to be made before Christmas," she said.

Shadow Treasurer Tim Holding said the government of running down the economy after ''inheriting the engine room of jobs creation" from the previous Labor state government.

Victoria’s unemployment rate edged up from 5.4 to 5.5 per cent and the national rate from 5.2 to 5.3 per cent. Full-time employment fell 39,900 in November. Part-time employment climbed 33,600.

Treasurer Wayne Swan said the net loss of 6300 jobs was “a very small uptick in unemployment”.

“Our economy is strong, but there are impacts which flow through our economy from the events in Europe. Despite that our unemployment rate has a 5 in front of it, which is vastly different than what is going on just about everywhere in the developed world where they have, 9, 10, 14 and 15 per cent,” he said.

Men have born the brunt labour market change over the past year, losing 10,400 jobs at a time when women have gained 50,800 jobs. Part-time employment is up 55,300 while full-time employment is down 14,900.

“The labour market is far from robust,” said Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk.

“The labour force seems to be growing by around 14,000 per month. We are expecting job losses of around 17,000 per month for the rest of the financial year taking the unemployment rate to 5.75 per cent.

Published in today's SMH and Age


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6202.0
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Bank by bank by bank by bank. How Swan won.

The Age
The standoff over home loan interest rates has ended, with Australia's big four banks finally yielding to political pressure and intervention by Treasurer Wayne Swan by passing on the Reserve Bank's 0.25 point cut.

After two days of silence from the big four - and a storm of public protest and indignation from the Treasurer - ANZ move first, announcing yesterday it would cut its standard variable home loan rate from 7.55 per cent to 7.30. Fellow Melbourne-based giant NAB followed quickly, dropping its standard rate to 7.22 per cent.

Mr Swan, who had already phoned executives at the banks to put his case, resorted to messages on Twitter, saying: "Heat just gone up another notch on Westpac and CBA."

Commonwealth fell into line late in the afternoon, and Westpac, which had the highest home rate before the controversy, yielded about 7.30pm after another tweet from the Treasurer: "Westpac customers deserve their bank to do the right thing as well."

ANZ, NAB and Westpac will also pass on the 0.25 point cut to business. The Commonwealth was considering its position.

But it was not all good news for borrowers, with the banks to continue charging the old rates until Monday week.

And ANZ, although it acted first to cut this time, has flagged a bid to escape the political pressure to pass on Reserve Bank moves in future... It says it will now review its rates on the second Friday of every month, regardless of whether the Reserve has moved.

The shift means that for ANZ's 700,000 customers, their interest rates could rise or fall even when the central bank has left official rates unchanged.

ANZ's Australian operations chief, Philip Chronican, said the public expectation that all official rate moves would be passed on had become ''dysfunctional''.

There were far more significant influences on bank costs than the Reserve cash rate, he said, and ANZ had long been planning to ''break the nexus'' between official changes and mortgage prices. ''We've all said it's a nexus that needs to be broken and we just thought it was about time somebody did something about it.''

UBS banking analyst Jonathan Mott, said ANZ's move would break the ''misconception'' about the link between the Reserve Bank and mortgage rates, and had the potential to make retail borrowing costs more volatile.

Westpac group executive Jason Yetton held out the prospect of an imminent rate hike should conditions deteriorate in Europe, saying the "unstable and deteriorating economic situation in Europe" posed significant risks.

"It is placing pressure on both the availability and cost of raising funds overseas to support mortgage and business lending in Australia."

The big banks return on equity is high compared to their counterparts overseas. The Commonwealth makes 19.5 per cent per year, NAB 15 per cent, Westpac 16 per cent and ANZ 15 per cent. US big banks make 5.7 per cent, British big banks 3.5 per cent and banks in mainland Europe 8 per cent.

Mr Swan has asked his business tax working group to report by the end of the year on the feasibility of introducing a tax on outsized returns on equity as part of a tradeoff that would cut corporate tax on ordinary profits to zero.

Published in today'sAge


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Thursday, December 08, 2011

ANZ leaves the others gaping. But what if they did talk among themselves?

Chirs Joye has a video.




Read more >>

It's the west and north that's doing it. Why our economic growth looks good



WHERE AUSTRALIA FITS

September quarter real GDP growth

China: 2.3%
Japan: 1.5%
Australia: 1%
Canada: 0.86%
South Korea: 0.8%
Germany: 0.5%
US: 2%
UK: 0.5%
France:0.4%
Euro zone: 0.2%

ABS 5206.0, Eurostat


STATE BY STATE

September growth in state final demand

Western Australia: 8.4%
Queensland: 3.5%
Tasmania 1.1%
NSW: 0.5%
Victoria: -0.1%
South Australia: -1.6%

ABS 5206.0


Australia’s economy has roared out of the blocks after this year’s devastating natural disasters, but almost all of the action is in two states.

Treasurer Wayne Swan yesterday hailed economic growth figures he said were “exceptional, particularly at a time when most economies are struggling to grow at all and suffering mass unemployment”.

Gross domestic product grew 1 per cent in the September quarter following a rebound of 1.4 per cent in the June quarter after negative growth in the wake of the Queensland floods.

By contrast South Korea grew 0.8 per cent, Germany and the United Kingdom 0.5 per cent and the entire euro currency area 0.2 per cent.

Only Japan grew faster among the developed nations in the quarter, and it has been growing more slowly than Australia over the year.

But away from Western Australia and Queensland growth was anemic. NSW state final demand barely grew at all, climbing 0.5 per cent in the quarter. Victorian state final demand slipped 0.1 per cent. Western Australia - with a mere one tenth of Australia’s population - recorded demand growth of 8.4 per cent. Queensland recorded 3.5 per cent.

Over the past year state final demand in Western Australia has grown at a blistering 16.4 per cent, demand in Queensland by 9.3 per cent. The rest of the nation grew 1.3 per cent...

In both states growth was driven by a surge of investment. Western Australian business investment surged 27 per cent in the quarter, Queensland business investment 12 per cent.

Mining and mining-related construction drove the burst of investment with big liquefied natural gas projects in Queensland and Western Australia helping push up engineering construction 31 per cent in the quarter and 52 per cent over the year – the biggest annual increase in 30 years.

“As we go forward, you will see strong growth in investment, but it may well come in big lumps,” Mr Swan told a parliament house press conference. “We will see some quarters where it is not as strong and others where it comes through really strongly. But all of these projects are based on long-term investment horizons, and provide a solid bedrock in our economy.”

Government demand slipped away quickly as the budget was tightened, sliding 2.6 per cent or $2.1 billion in the quarter. Public investment slipped 7.2 per cent as stimulus building projects wound up.

Consumer spending held up well, climbing 1.2 per cent in the quarter and 3.8 per cent over the year - faster than the rate of retail sales growth suggesting a good deal of spending is on services, overseas tourism and direct overseas purchases not captured in the retail figures.

Spending on so-called vices has been sliding rapidly. Gambling losses accounted for only 2.8 per cent of consumer spending, down from 4.1 per cent a decade earlier. Cigarettes and tobacco accounted for only 1.4 per cent of spending, down from 2.4 per cent a decade earlier.

Wage income per person grew by around 5.5 per cent over the year but much of it was squirrelled away rather than spent. The household saving ratio stayed fairly steady at 10.1 per cent, close to its long-term high.

The news had little effect on financial markets. Reflecting economic conditions in July, August and September it is regarded as dated, providing a view of the economy before the renewed problems in Europe and before Australian export prices turned down.

Published in today's SMH and Age


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5206.0
Read more >>

Wednesday, December 07, 2011

No Action: The big banks prepare to dud their customers

What you’ll pay

Standard rates this morning

Westpac: 7.61% No change
Commonwealth: 7.56% No change
ANZ: 7.55% No change
NAB: 7.47% No change
Bank of Queensland: 7.36%
ME Bank: 6.74% (for union members)


Australia’s big four banks have snubbed their customers in the lead-up to Christmas. For the first time in more than two years not one of the big four has responded to a Reserve Bank rate cut on the day it was announced.

When the Bank last cut rates on Melbourne Cup day two of the big four - Westpac and the Commonwealth - proclaimed within minutes they would be passing on the cut in full.

Yesterday’s announcement of the second successive cut of 0.25 points in the Reserve Bank’s cash rate was followed by silence from each of the big four, with none apparently willing to be the first to reveal they would not pass on the cut in full.

The last time all four sat on their hands as the Reserve Bank moved - in April 2009 during the global financial crisis - three eventually passed on only 0.10 points of the 0.25 point cut and one passed on none.

An decision to pass on none of the cut this time would deny a household with a $300,000 mortgage a cut in repayments of $49 per month.

A decision to pass on only 0.10 points would deny such a household $29 per month.

An exasperated Treasurer Wayne Swan said yesterday many families and small businesses would be “very angry if there is not a full pass through of this rate cut by the banks in the system”...

“I have spent a lot of time putting in place more competition into our banking system over the past twelve months than we have seen in years. If people are unhappy with their financial institution they have the capacity to walk down the road,” he said.

Two smaller institutions yesterday passed on the cut in full. The Bank of Queensland cut its standard variable mortgage rate to 7.36 per cent.

Chief executive Stuart Grimshaw said passing on the full cut was “the right thing to do last month and it’s the right thing to do this month”.

“Our cost of funds continue to increase so pricing remains a balancing act, but with Christmas less than three weeks away we know our customers will appreciate the extra dollars,” he said.

Members Equity Bank also passed on the full 0.25 points, cutting its rate for union and industry super fund members to 6.74 per cent.

Ahead of the Reserve Bank’s decision Commonwealth Bank Chief Ralph Norris flagged the possibility of holding back future rate cuts saying “over the next two, three, four years, the cost of money is going to get much more expensive and I don't see any other choice than financial institutions internationally will pass on the additional costs”.

New anti price signalling laws introduced by Mr Swan to help ensure banks no longer "dud Australian families" make it difficult for banks to explain their thinking about rates after Reserve Bank board decisions.

ANZ chief Mike Smith hinted at this thinking last month saying “there is a credit crunch in Europe now, it is spreading to Asia and it will spread here too”.

The European debt crisis lies behind yesterday’s Reserve Bank board decision. The Bank believes the world economy is weakening and that mainland Europe will be fortunate if its economy merely records zero growth in 2012. Weaker global growth will inevitably flow through to Australia, further weakening Reserve Bank forecasts.

The cut took no account of the possibility of financial market turmoil flowing from a decision by a European nation to repudiate its debts or unilaterally abandon the euro. In the event of such a crisis the Reserve Bank board would hold an emergency meeting, possibly by phone, rather than waiting until the next scheduled meeting in February.

The Bank believes rates are now at or below normal, meaning there is no need to cut further in the absence of a new international downturn. If the big four banks do fully pass on the latest cut, mortgage and small business rates will be 0.20 points below their 15 year average.

Published in today's SMH and Age


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Tuesday, December 06, 2011

Our rich are getting richer.


Australia is among those nations becoming becoming less equal...




While elsewhere...




Australia’s top 1 per cent are grabbing a greater share of our income than at any time since the 1950s.

A new OECD report finds Australian incomes were their most evenly distributed at the end of the 1970s when the top 1 per cent of earners took home 4.8 per cent of the income. Since the early eighties the proportion has climbed to 8.8 per cent, meaning Australia’s top earners amass for themselves nine times as much income as as if it was distributed evenly.

In almost all of the OECD countries surveyed income inequality was at its highest before the very high before the first world war and fell sahrply during the second world war.

But whereas income inequality has remained low in mainland European countries and Japan since bottoming in the seventies, it has climbed since the eighties in the US and Australia, Canada, Ireland and the United Kingdom.

The surge has been particularly dramatic in the United States which gave its top 1 per cent around 8 per cent of the national income at the turn of the 1980s and 18 per cent in the most recent reading.

Australia also stands out because of how quickly all ranges have grown... Between the mid-1980s and the late 2000s the income enjoyed by the top ten percent of households has soared 4.5 per cent per year in real terms, more than in any other OECD member.

Income earned by the bottom ten percent has climbed 3 per cent per year, also one the fastest rates in the OECD.

But the compounding effect of the different rates has opened up a very wide income gap.

A family taking home $30,000 in the mid-1980s would be earning $68,000 today if income had grown 3 per cent per year. A family earning $30,000 enjoying a 4.5 per cent rate of growth would be earning $103,000 today.

Entitled Divided We stand the report is unable to identify any one single cause of growing income inequality in English speaking nations, saying it could flow from increased global competition for highly-skilled workers, it could be that advances in information technology are making highly-skilled workers more prized, or it could be that highly paid workers are putting in more hours.

It also identifies “assortative mating”, a phenomenon in which high earners increasingly marry parters who are also high earning – “doctors marrying doctors rather than nurses”. It says 40 per cent of couples where both partners work have similar earnings compared with 33 per cent two decades ago.

Published in today's SMH and Age


FASTER AT THE TOP

Annual real household income growth
Mid-1980s to late 2000s


Bottom 10 per cent Top 10 per cent

Australia 3.0% 4.5%
Canada 0.9% 1.6%
France 1.6% 1.3%
Germany 0.1% 1.6%
Israel -1.1% 2.4%
New Zealand 1.1% 2.5%
United Kingdom 0.9% 2.5%
United States 0.5% 1.9%

Disposable household income, adjusted for inflation

Divided We stand: Why inequality keeps rising, OECD 2011






Inequality in Australia, As Seen by the OECD



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What'll the RBA announce at 2.30 pm AEDT today?

Stephen Koukoulas has prepared a draft press release:


Number 2011-2XYZ

Date 6 December 2011

Embargo: For Immediate Release


Not a Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor, RBA: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 per cent, effective 7 December 2011.

Recent information is consistent with a moderation in the pace of global growth, though fears of a major downturn have not been borne out so far. The pace of the US economic expansion continues to be moderate and there remains considerable spare capacity. China's growth has continued to slow leading to some cautionary easing in policy. Output in Asia remains solid, and domestic demand in the region is generally expanding. Trade performance, however, continues to see some effects of a significant slowing in economic activity in Europe, where the prospects are for economic weakness to continue. Commodity prices have stabilized at relatively high levels after some falls from around mid-year.

Financial markets have recovered somewhat from the turmoil of recent months, helped by the coordinated central bank policy action to support banking and market liquidity. Further signs that European governments are making progress in their efforts to deal with the sovereign debt and banking problems has reduced market pessimism. Equity markets have gained ground, but it is still likely to be some time yet before concerns about the European situation can definitively be laid to rest and the effects of the recent turmoil on confidence may result in a longer period of precautionary behaviour by firms and households.

Information about the Australian economy suggests moderate growth overall. The terms of trade have now probably peaked and will decline somewhat in the near term, but they remain very high. Investment in the resources sector is picking up very strongly, with much more to come. Some related service sectors are enjoying better-than-average conditions. In other sectors, cautious behaviour by households and the high exchange rate have had a noticeable dampening effect. Dwelling construction has weakened further in recent months while consumer demand appears to be expanding at a little below the long run trend. The unemployment rate has increased a little over recent months to be around 5¼ per cent. Fiscal policy is having a contractionary effect on economic activity and public demand is forecast to subtract from GDP growth in 2012-13.

Recent information on underlying inflation suggests the subdued demand conditions and the high exchange rate continue to dampen inflation. With labour market conditions now softer than at the beginning od 2011, there has been confirmation that growth in labour costs has slowed. The Labour Price Index rose by around 3½ per cent and is consistent with moderate inflation.

The Bank's current judgement is that inflation is likely to be consistent with the 2–3 per cent target in 2012 and 2013, abstracting from the impact of the carbon pricing scheme. The risks to this outlook are evenly balanced although in the near term, headline inflation is likely to be very low as some temporary price spikes unwind.

Credit growth remains subdued and there continue to be orderly falls in house prices. The exchange rate has been very variable over the past few months, but remains at historically high levels. Financial conditions eased in response to the 25 basis point interest rate cut in November with standard variable mortgage and most business lending interest rates falling. Bank deposit rates have also fallen in recent months.

Last month, the Board moved monetary policy from a mildly restrictive stance given the overall growth moderation, lower inflation and subdued confidence outside the resources sector. These trends remain in place and the Board concluded that a neutral stance of monetary policy is required to be consistent with achieving sustainable growth and 2–3 per cent inflation over time.


We'll know soon enough.

Read more >>

Swan gets on with business, cutting most company tax rates - to zero

Most Australian companies would pay no tax on their earnings, while some would pay a much higher rate of "super tax" on large profits, under radical plans being developed in the wake of the Gillard government's tax summit.

The change, if fully implemented, would in effect extend the government's minerals resource rent tax across the entire Australian corporate sector.

It would lead to the most profitable companies paying a lot more tax, and the rest paying less or none at all.

The plan is being prepared by a working group set up by Treasurer Wayne Swan after this year's tax summit, and has received preliminary support from key business groups and union leaders.

According to its authors, the plan is aimed at giving more incentive for business investment, without necessarily reducing the total amount of company tax collected.

Addressing a tax conference at Canberra University yesterday, the head of Treasury's revenue group, Rob Heferen, compared the change to the introduction of the goods and services tax in 2000.

He said this would be a more radical change.

"When Australia introduced a consumption tax there was a pretty clear path to follow," he told the conference.

"This is not like that. We need to be careful about unknowns. Having said that, the imperative for the change may well be a little bit stronger"...

The nine-person working group is examining a proposal known as "allowance for corporate equity", under which no tax would apply to the portion of corporate profits necessary to get a reasonable return on equity.

Most companies, especially most manufacturers, fail to meet that hurdle and so would pay no company tax.

Banks and mining companies make a much greater return on equity and so would be liable for the super tax on the excess portion of their earnings.

Working group member John Freebairn from Melbourne University told the conference the super tax rate could be as high as 40 or 50 per cent.

He nominated McDonald's and KFC as examples of companies able to make larger than normal profits because of the power of their brands.

ACTU secretary Jeff Lawrence, also on the business working group, opened the door for broad agreement on the proposal, telling the conference the union movement would be prepared to accept it on the condition the total company tax take did not fall.

He previously opposed moves to cut the standard corporate tax rate below 29 per cent.

The Business Council of Australia, also represented on the working group, has previously spoken in favour of the idea.

Asked by The Age whether the change would be practical, Mr Heferen said it had been implemented in a number of countries although not on the scale of the GST.

"Belgium has one, Brazil and Italy had it, Latvia has it. But from what I can gather none have done it for the reasons we think it is useful, which is to attract capital and boost labour productivity."

Mr Heferen represents Treasury on the working group and headed the Henry tax review secretariat.

"It would be complex, but company tax is already complex. It would be especially difficult when people were getting used to it," he said.

"Our next step is to properly quantify the cost of change, the actual cost of people moving over to a new system.

"That is something that whatever government Australia has needs to think about. The costs of change might be very significant."

Mr Swan has asked the working group to deliver a report on the proposal by next December.

He has asked for an earlier report on the tax treatment of losses by March.

Published in today's SMH and Age


Beyond the Tax Forum - Speech by Rob Heferen




From: Jennifer Westacott
Sent: Monday, December 05, 2011 09:32 PM

Subject: Statement from Jennifer Westacott to BCA members on inaccurate tax report in this morning's media

To: BCA Members
BCA Liaison Delegates
BCA Company Chairmen

Reports in this morning’s SMH and Age newspapers that the BCA favours the introduction of a super profits tax are wrong.

The BCA is participating in the Business Tax Working Group which is examining options to relieve the taxation of new investment. However, the group has not even begun to consider options around the allowance for corporate equity model – which is just one option that the Treasurer has asked the group to examine, along with a reduction in the company tax rate.

The BCA’s position is to support the recommendation of the Henry review that Australia’s company tax rate should be reduced to 25 per cent as economic and fiscal circumstances permit.

We have also reiterated the need for extensive consultations on any major changes to the tax system, and we will be holding a specialist tax forum for BCA members early in the new year.

If you have any questions or concerns about this, please feel free to contact me or our Chief Economist, Peter Crone.

Thanks and regards

Jennifer


From: Peter Martin
Date: Tue, Dec 6, 2011 at 3:40 PM
To: XXXX
Cc: Jennifer.Westacott@bca.com.au

I wrote that the Business Council had previously spoken in favour of the idea.

You'll find it here, in its excellent paper entitled:

UNREALISED GAINS: THE COMPETITIVE POSSIBILITIES OF TAX REFORM

Currently, corporate income tax falls on the
‘full return’ to corporate equity – that is, the
normal return and so-called ‘pure’ profi t.
Under an ACE system, companies are
allowed to deduct an imputed normal return
on their equity from the corporate income tax
base, in a similar way to deductions that are
made for interest payments on debt. The effect
of such an arrangement is that companies
would incur tax only on ‘above normal returns’.
The adoption of an ACE has the potential to
deliver signifi cant benefi ts. Assuming that the
corporate tax rate remains unchanged, the
ACE reduces the corporate tax burden by
effectively narrowing the tax base. While we
accept the conventional wisdom that, in general,
broader tax bases are more effi cient, the ACE
has the potential to deliver benefi ts for a country
like Australia while avoiding distortions to
resource allocation and ineffi ciencies typically
associated with narrower tax bases.

The ACE system has the potential to remove
the bias in favour of debt fi nancing that fl ows
from the tax deductibility of interest on debt.
Implementing new tax arrangements that work
to reduce an excess reliance on debt will improve
economic effi ciency. It may also eliminate the
need for thin capitalisation rules which, in turn,
would materially reduce complexity within the
tax system.

As for expenditure taxes generally, under an
ACE the tax system should not affect the cost
of capital of a fi rm, as the effective marginal
tax rate (EMTR) is zero for an investment
generating returns that just cover the cost
of capital (that is, an investment that only
produces ‘normal returns’).

In addition, the ACE could eliminate potential
problems and complexities that arise in having
to distinguish debt from equity fi nance. In the
face of fi nancial innovation which has blurred
the distinction between the two, the ACE
approach may provide signifi cant benefi ts in
terms of greater simplifi cation and improved
resource allocation.

While current depreciation rules continue to
apply, the ACE could also reduce distortions
associated with the treatment of depreciation.
Specifi cally, it offsets the investment distortions
caused by deviations between true economic
depreciation and depreciation for tax purposes.
From an implementation perspective, the ACE
is likely to be relatively simple to introduce
because it continues to rely on the current
corporate income tax system. Initially the ACE
approach could apply only to new equity
capital, which limits the revenue implications
and also minimises potential windfall gains
to shareholders.

The benefits of an ACE would, however, be
undermined if the corporate tax rate is raised
to offset the impact of base narrowing.

This
is one of the major disadvantages usually
highlighted in respect of an ACE arrangement.
However, the authors of this study concluded
that there is no need to increase the corporate
tax rate because in the long run the potential
to stimulate investment both for locally based
companies and from inbound investors will
raise the pre-tax return to domestic factors
of production by more than the revenue loss
from the ACE.

An ACE arrangement warrants further
investigation, and we recommend that the review
panel examine the proposal in more detail


I don't know why Jennifer did not acknowledge this in her email to members.

Peter





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Monday, December 05, 2011

Will the Reserve Bank cut rates tomorrow? I doubt even it knows

Meantime Chris Joye says he found this video of a pre-meeting chat.

Participants: someone like Assistant Governor Phil Lowe, someone like senior board member Roger Corbett:



My take:

Reserve Bank specialists are in the dark about whether the Bank will cut interest rates at its final meeting for the year tomorrow with some believing even the board members themselves are uncertain.

Tomorrow’s meeting comes ahead of economic growth figures Wednesday likely to be very strong as Queensland rebounds from the floods but amid uncertainty over events in Europe and the knowledge there isn’t another board meeting scheduled until February.

“Waiting two months until the next board meeting is too big a risk to take given the deteriorating situation in Europe,” says AMP head of investment strategy Shane Oliver who is genuinely uncertain. “While recent better than expected data in Australia - notably for business investment - make it a close call, the Bank’s policy of ‘least regret’ would argue strongly in favour of a precautionary rate cut.”

Commonwealth securities chief economist Craig James thinks on balance the Bank will hold off until February for “tactical” reasons.

“If it waits until February the European situation might get resolved one way or another. I think it will hold off, but I don’t hold this view with supreme confidence” he says, adding that if he was on the board he would cut straight away.

Missing from almost all the commentary about tomorrow’s meeting is the serious suggestion the past week’s mid-year economic statement and the projected narrow 2012-12 budget surplus will have anything to do with it...

The Bank has for some time acknowledged in board minutes that tighter fiscal policy is having a contractionary effect on the economy. It cut rates in November because underlying inflation had fallen back to around 2.5 per cent, the centre of its target band and the long-term average.

The Melbourne Cup day cash rate rate cut moved the overall structure of rates towards but not all the way to their 15-year average, leaving the Bank room for just one more cut which it could justify as being in line with its inflation target. The question facing the board is whether to make that cut this week or wait until February. It is possible that the board has before it an open recommendation and possible also that it will amend whatever recommendation was emailed to members in the staff briefing pack late last week.

Seasoned Reserve Bank watcher Chris Caton of BT Financial Group said the decision could go either way.

“They don’t want to look like they are panicking, but on the other hand given that the rest of the world took substantive liquidity enhancing measures to support European economies last week the Reserve Bank might want to say well they are part of that club.”

“The Australian data can be read two ways. In the past week we have had very very strong capital expenditure numbers and very weak residential building approvals. I don’t know what it should do. Obviously it is going to cut rates again, the only question is is whether it is Tuesday or in February.”

September quarter national accounts released Wednesday are expected to show impressive economic growth of around 1 per cent for the second successive quarter, in part because of rebuilding activity in Queensland.

Although annualised growth over the past six months will exceed 4 per cent, the negative March quarter should knock down annual growth to less than 3 per cent.

Polls show market economists evenly split on the Reserve Bank’s decision tomorrow. Futures traders are more confident with the latest pricing implying a 96 per cent probability of a cut in the cash to 4.50 per cent.

Published in today's SMH and Age


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Thursday, December 01, 2011

Miners invest, Minerals Council sledges "socioeconomic policy agenda"

The government has hailed new mining investment figures as a “resounding vote of confidence” as the industry itself complains about an “increasingly regressive shift in Australia's socioeconomic policy agenda”.

Business investment climbed 12 per cent in the September quarter and 31 per cent over the year to September - the fastest growth on record. Mining investment surged 22 per cent in the quarter and 60 per cent over the year. Manufactuing investment jumped 10 per cent in the quarter and around 30 pc over the year.

“This is are a resounding vote of confidence in the future of our economy,” said Treasurer Wayne Swan. “They underscore our fundamental strengths and help demonstrate why we are better placed than just about anyone in the face of the current global instability.”

The Bureau of Statistics figures follow Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics calculations putting committed resource investments at a record $232 billion. A further $224 billion in investment is planned but not yet committed.

“Of course we can expect to see some lumpiness in investment as we go forward due to the massive scale of individual projects,” the Treasurer said. “But there is no doubt the mining industry has a very bright future and is continuing to power ahead.”

Minerals Council chief Mitch Hooke as sounded a more bitter note in an email to full and associate members...

“The increasingly regressive shift in Australia's socioeconomic policy agenda is quite rightly starting to get significant public media air play,” he writes in the memo dated Friday November 25.

Of concern is the “greater emphasis on the reallocation and redistribution of wealth [rather] than building the productive capacity of the economy - carving up the pie, than growing it”.

The email bemoans “the convenience of demonising the resources sector as the political scapegoat for the inevitable pressures of Australia's economic structural adjustment, and as the substance to the politics of envy and class warfare”.

Government intervention is increasingly focused on “a predilection that government's know better than efficiently functioning markets”. Reinstitutionalised union involvment in commercial decision making is “reestablishing in the bargaining process a legitimacy for matters not directly relating to the employment relationship”.

On average firms upgraded their planned spending this financial year by 6 per cent to planned growth of 35 per cent over the financial year, well in excess of the 14 per cent predicted in Tuesday’s mid-year budget update.

The results strengthened speculation about a very strong September quarter economic growth figure due next Wednesday, with some predictions as high as a rebound of 1 per cent.

Published in today's SMH





From: Mitchell Hooke [mailto:Mitchell.Hooke@minerals.org.au]
Sent: Friday, 25 November 2011 7:46 AM
Subject: The emerging contest to the regressive public policy environment!

TO: FULL AND ASSOCIATE MEMBERS OF THE MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
CORPORATE AFFAIRS GROUP

The increasingly regressive shift in Australia's socio-economic policy
agenda is quite rightly starting to get significant public media air
play as concern within the business community increases and as the
contest becomes more acute for intellectual capital among the key
opinion leaders.

Accordingly, I thought you might appreciate a copy of the speech Gary
Banks, Chairman, Productivity Commission, gave to the ACCI 2011 Annual
Dinner on Wednesday evening last, which resonates strongly with the
MCA's views and advocacy platform.

As I'm sure you appreciate, we are increasingly concerned, and
therefore focussed in our advocacy efforts, at the profound shift in
the national public policy climate confronting the minerals industry.
Quite simply, the policy circumstances have profoundly shifted from
the opportunity costs of the "passive failures" of economic reform
inertia in addressing capacity constraints, to the adversity of the
"active threats" of the regression to what some commentators liken to
"the toxic norms of the 1970's" - the time of the last significant
commodities boom.

The key drivers being:

* greater emphasis on the reallocation and redistribution of
wealth than building the productive capacity of the economy - carving
up the pie, than growing it.

* the convenience of demonising the resources sector as the
political scapegoat for the inevitable pressures of Australia's
economic structural adjustment, and as the substance to the politics
of envy and class warfare.

* the re-institutionalisation of union third party direct
involvement in the commercial decision making of companies -
compromising workplace flexibility, principally direct relationships
between the employer and the employee, and re-establishing in the
bargaining process, a legitimacy for matters not directly relating to
the employment relationship.

* increasing Government intervention in the market - greater
regulation - and with increasing emphasis in State Constitutional
responsibilities - founded in a predilection that Government's know
better than efficiently functioning markets, and that the legitimate
cause of national consistency/harmonisation is better effected through
centralised control than an efficiently functioning federation, and

* an emerging protectionist sentiment justifying direct or
quasi industry assistance as a political defence to, rather than
effectively targeted transitional assistance to enable industry's to
better adjust.


Those of you who attended the MCA Full Council meeting in Sydney in
mid October, will recall that the "shifting sands" of the public
policy agenda and the misguided focus on the "ill effects" of the
resources boom, was central to the Council's discussions.

Next week the MCA Board will consider the Council's Business Plan and
Budget for next year, a central component of which is our policy
advocacy strategy and tactics in this space.

We will keep you posted on developments.




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5625.0 8501.0

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Lib costings debacle - "auditors" fined

Amateur hour all round.

The two Perth accountants who costed the Coalition’s 2010 election policies breached professional standards and will be fined, a disciplinary tribunal has ruled.

The ruling is an embarrassment to the Coalition which claimed during the campaign the costing was “as good as you could get anywhere in the country, including in Treasury." In recent months it has threatened to use private accountants once again.

Geoffrey Phillip Kid and Cyrus Patell, both of the Perth office of WHK Horwath produced a one-page report for the Coalition two days before the election which Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey tendered as an audit, saying the pair had certified “in law that our numbers are accurate".

“If the fifth-biggest accounting firm in Australia signs off on our numbers it is a brave person to start saying there are accounting tricks,” he told ABC radio. “I tell you it is audited. This is an audited statement.’’

In fact the document was the result of a carefully-worded agreement between the accountants and the Coalition to produce work primarily "not of an audit nature".

An audit would examine the assumptions used by the Coalition and whether they were reasonable.

Kidd and Patell’s unpublished agreement with the Coalition explicity required them to make no inquires about “the reasonableness of otherwise of the assumptions used"...

A professional conduct tribunal established by the Institute of Chartered Accountants ruled in July that Kidd and Patel were liable to face disciplinary action because their one-page report failed to contain “a statement that the procedures performed do not constitute either an audit or a review” and so failed to properly describe the limited nature of the agreed upon procedures.

Kidd and Patel appealed. The November judgement upholds the original finding stating that in view of the nature of the assignment and public interest in the matter Kidd and Patell had “a professional obligation to understand” the type of service they were providing and to comply with the applicable standards.

The initial decision that they be “severely reprimanded” was downgraded on appeal to “reprimanded”. Each will be fined $5000 and will will have to make a contribution toward the cost of the hearing and the appeal.

Treasurer Wayne Swan said yesterday the judgement was “the final nail in the coffin for the Liberals’ economic credibility”.

“It has been laid to rest at the bottom of a $70 billion budget crater. It shows exactly why Mr Hockey is so desperate to avoid independent, professional scrutiny of his budget debacle by the Treasury and now by the newly legislated Parliamentary Budget Office,” he said.

Contacted by The Age last night Mr Hockey said it was a matter between the Institute and the two accountants.

Asked whether he had been wise to refer to their work as an audit he said: “I’m not getting into it mate”.

A Treasury examination of the Coalition’s 2010 costings found errors including double counting and questionable assumptions amounting to $11 billion.

Mr Hockey said he would use the new $25 million Parliamentary Budget Office for costing his policies up until the campaign began. “After that we are looking at a range of options,” he told The Age.

“It might not be a private accounting firm, it might be a panel of eminent Australians.”

Sydney University accountancy professor Bob Walker whose complaint sparked the investigation said he was disappointed in the judgement which did not directly address the “overriding responsibility of members of the accounting profession to act in the public interest”.

Published in today's Age


The letter:





Coaltiion Costings Document August 18 2010



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Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Memo Reserve Bank. Read Twitter, it's underrated

Wednesday column

Tweets are about to take their place alongside other economic indicators as a way influencing the Reserve Bank.

Not Australia’s Reserve Bank, at least not yet. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is putting up money for firms to provide a “sentiment analysis and social media monitoring solution” that will allow it to read the mood of the economy through Twitter, Facebook, Youtube, and blogs.

Playing around with a basic free version of the software has convinced me they’re on to something. Before Tuesday’s financial statement tweets about Wayne Swan were twice as negative as they were positive. (I should acknowledge that the machine has a problem with sarcasm. When a Twitter comment thanked Wayne Swan for clearly explaining that ALP policy was no good, the machine scored it as a compliment). After the midday statement the comments become more negative still.

Whether or not the balance of Twitter comments accurately reflects the public mood, changes in the balance of comments probably do reflect changes in the public mood. And the number of comments available is massive.

Australia’s Reserve Bank already makes use of the Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index, compiled each month by asking just 1200 people how they feel about the economy and their personal finances.

How much better would it be to aggregate in real time one hundred times as many responses, each given freely in moments of frustration or elation where the words used and the frequency with which they are used convey not just the numerical balance of optimists and pessimists but also the intensity of emotions.

Statisticians have a rule, the more observations the better... James Surowiecki takes it to its logical conclusion in his book The Wisdom of Crowds: When the number of observations gets very big and is aggregated it tends to be more accurate than any individual observation, even those of experts.

He says one of the early successes in harnessing the wisdom of crowds came in locating the missing US submarine Scorpion in May 1968. It could have been sunk anywhere in a region 32 kilometres wide.

Instead of asking one or two experts to describe where they thought it was, the chief naval officer assembled a very large group of specialists in all sorts of fields and asked each to guess the location. The prize was a bottle of Scotch.

Aggregating the guesses he came up with a spot just metres from where the submarine was found. It was a location none of the individual experts had come up with.

The outcomes of Twitter sentiment ratings are hard to rig. Right now the ratings for Qantas are running two to one against (about the same as for Wayne Swan before the yesterday’s statement made things worse).

A week ago Qantas attempted to re-engineer the balance by offering a gift pack “including the famous Qantas pajamas” as a prize for tweets that included the hashtag #QantasLuxury and described a good Qantas experience. (“Be creative!”, it added in parentheses.)

The responses were indeed creative, and a good deal more representative of the public mood than the airline had hoped.

“#QantasLuxury is a plane that actually flies,” said one. “#QantasLuxury is chartering a Greyhound bus and arriving at your destination days before your grounded flight,” said another. “#Virginluxury: Getting an exit row, #Tigerluxury: Getting a biscuit, #Qantasluxury: getting a pilot, a plane, engineers and baggage handlers, said one of my favourites.

Some 16,000 tweets followed. An analysis by the social media firm iGo2 found many of them were from the US and Europe where Qantas had stranded passengers.

The airline had created a buzz alright, but it had tapped into rather than altered the balance of feelings.

Southern Cross Austereo boasts on its website it can “connect brands with 95 per cent of Australians”. In the same week Qantas blew itself up on Twitter Southern Cross was humbled when the Australians it connects with used Twitter to connect with it and with its advertisers.

Its Sydney FM radio star Kyle Sandilands had had a less than impressive TV show debut on the Monday night. Angry at reaction the next morning he lashed out at a “fat slag” on a newspaper site who had labelled it a disaster.

“What a fat bitter thing you are. You’ve got a nothing job anyway. You are a piece of shit. Your hair is very nineties, and your blouse. You haven’t got that much titty to be having that low-cut blouse. Watch your mouth or I’ll hunt you down,” and so on.

ABC radio journalist Mark Colvin heard the outburst, tweeted about it, the Mumbrella website copied the audio and posted it on its own site before Southern Cross could remove it and thousands of tweets directly implored sponsors to remove their ads.

One by one Holden, Ford, Lexus, Telstra, American Express, Blackberry, Olympus, Beaurepaires, CUA financial services, Harvey Norman, Coles, Toys R Us and Fantastic Furniture withdrew their ads. Some removed their ads not just from the Kyle Sandilands show but from the entire network.

One advertising agency fired its client after it refused to remove its ads. “We have decided to disassociate ourselves from this client after a disagreement in regards to what we believe to be an appropriate response,” said the Girl PR agency in statement. The client, Goldmark Jewellers, then withdrew its ads anyway.

What is powerful invites manipulation. But the geeks are on that possibility. Fake comments, posted by so-called “sockpuppets” read differently to real ones.

Researchers at Cornell University say they have developed software they say can detect fake hotel reviews 90 per cent of the time. Humans can detect fake reviews only half the time. Apparently fake reviews use more verbs, real ones more punctuation. Amazon is trialing the technology.

Twitter may not be a prefect tool for assessing the mood of the times, but it is shaping up to be better than any we have ever had before. It’s not just the Reserve Bank. Everyone should be taking its pulse.

Published in today's Age






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MYEFO: Small changes, mostly harmless

It’s Swan and Wong’s pea and thimble trick.

The economic forecasts in the economic statement are real enough - they are almost exactly in line those of those released this month by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Reserve Bank. Employment will grow by a diminished 287,000 over the next two years rather than the 500,000 forecast in the budget. That’s barely enough to match the increased population that will be looking for work. By June 2013 the unemployment rate will be 5.5 per cent rather than the 4.5 per cent forecast in the budget. The four-year tax revenue forecast is down $20 billion on the budget time guess, and that’s if all goes well.

Both the OECD and the government’s forecasts assume developed nations “muddle through” - that that “sovereign debt and banking sector problems in the euro area can be somehow contained and that excessive fiscal tightening will be avoided in the United States”. If that doesn’t happen, if the mix of prices Australia uses to trade with the rest of the world slip 4 per cent more than forecast, Treasury talks of a further hit to the budget of $2.5 billion this financial year and $6.6 billion in 2012-13, enough to wipe out the prized 2012-13 $1.5 billion surplus four times over.

Wherever they have had discretion Swan and Wong have moved spending out of the surplus target year and moved savings into it... The official table shows extra spending of $2.3 billion in 2011-12, 589 million in 2013-14 and 827 million in 2012-15. Fair enough, but in 2012-13 there’s a cut in spending of $1 billion. Spot the odd year out. Almost all of that cut is spending moved forward into 2011-12, much of it for flood reconstruction. Swan insisted yesterday the changed spending profile was not related to his search for a 2012-13 surplus, the spending just happened to be needed now.

The extra 2.5 per cent efficiency dividend levied on government departments applies for one year only. You guessed it, the year is 2012-13. But because the cut will lower the starting point for future departmental spending it will cut forecast spending in subsequent years as well.

All up the deficit for this financial year will be $15 billion bigger than it was doing to be, and the forecast 2012-13 surplus $2 billion smaller.

The shuffling of money and modest cutbacks will probably do no harm. They might even convince the Reserve Bank its safe to cut rates next week at its final board meeting before Christmas and a two month break.


AS THE TREASURY SEES IT

2011-12 2012-13

Economic growth

May budget: 4% 3.75%
November update: 3.25% 3.25%

Unemployment rate

May budget: 4.75% 4.5%
November update: 5% 5.5%

Budget outcome

May budget: $22.8 billion deficit $3.5 billion surplus
November update: $37.1 billion deficit $1.5 billion surplus

Year-on-year real GDP growth, June quarter unemployment rates
Source: Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook

Published in today's SMH and Age


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Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Economic outlook dangerous, unless you're in Australia - OECD

MYEFO here, at 11.00 am


STREETS AHEAD

OECD growth forecasts


2011 2012 2013

Australia 1.8% 4.0% 3.2%
Euro zone 1.6% 0.2% 1.4%
United Kingdom 0.9% 0.5% 1.8%
United States 1.7% 2.0% 2.5%

Real GDP growth, year on year
Source: OECD Economic Outlook



New OECD forecasts released overnight give Australia the fastest growth in the developed world in 2012: a year-on-year rate of 4 per cent, equaled only by Chile and approached only by Korea at 3.8 per cent.

Nations using the euro as currency are expected to grow by only 0.2 per cent in 2012, the United Kingdom 0.5 per cent the United States 2 per cent. Average among members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development will be just 1.6 per cent.

The organisation says vigorous investment and exports buoyed by the mining boom should offset the negative effects of a persistently strong dollar and budget cutbacks.

Should the global economy deteriorate further there is room for stimulus spending and tax cuts although these would “postpone the return to budget surplus”.

OECD forecasts are generally in line with those of Australian Treasury. The forecasts released overnight reflect those released by the Reserve Bank earlier this month and suggest only limited downward revisions to growth when the mid-year budget update is released later today.

The OECD says the euro zone appears already be in recession and the United States could fall “into a recession that monetary policy can do little to counter” if it doesn’t loosen its budget settings.

“In view of the great uncertainty policy makers now confront, they must be prepared to face the worst,” the report says. A large negative event would “most likely send the OECD area as a whole into recession with marked declines in activity in the United States and Japan, and prolong and deepen the recession in the euro area”.

Published in today's SMH and Age


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Monday, November 28, 2011

Mining companies, as seen by the AMWU

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MYEFO. It'd be best not to cut

We wouldn't if we weren't so insanely obsessed with surpluses

It’s dangerous to cut the budget right now and Wayne Swan knows it.

He acknowledged yesterday it would be “counterproductive to take an axe to the budget in these uncertain times”. But he’ll do it anyway this week because he feels he has to in order to continue to credibly forecast a budget surplus in 2012-13.

The Commonwealth budget is massive. It amounts to one third of a trillion dollars. Whether it is in deficit or a surplus by a few billion matters not at all. Scaled down to a household’s budget it is the difference between spending or saving $1000.

But whereas it might help a household to reign in its spending (unless it was going short on food) it can hurt an economy for a government to reign in its spending when things are uncertain.

The Reserve Bank warned this month a deep recession in Europe would represent “a downside risk for the Australian economy”. Households are already shutting their wallets and businesses and holding off hiring in anticipation of such a risk... Cutting household welfare and cutting corporate welfare will unsettle them further.

Early indications point to billions of dollars of corporate welfare cuts and at least one cut to household welfare - taking away the $258 maternity immunisation allowance paid to all families of fully immunised children aged up to five.

There may well be good reasons to make such cuts in normal times. But these are anything but normal times. Prudent economic managers prune lightly or not all when things look edgy.

The Treasurer is doing it because the jibes about never delivering a surplus in four budgets have got to him. But it was right not to deliver a surplus during one of the greatest global recession on record. It is almost certainly right not to deliver one now. We better hope he cuts carefully.

Published in today's SMH and Age


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MYEFO countdown. Swan's looking for $7 billion, plus


Where Swan will save

. Corporate deductions for acquisitions: $10 billion

. Tax-free “living away from home” allowances for corporate executives

. Vaccination incentives: $209 million

. Teachers performance bonuses: $200 million

Savings over four years on May budget estimates


The European financial crisis has ripped a further $7 billion from budget revenue increasing the pressure on Treasurer Wayne Swan to find big savings in this week’s economic statement.

Forecasts to be released with the statement show capital gains tax takings from companies, superannuation funds and individuals down $7 billion on budget forecasts for the four years ahead which were themselves down $9 billion on the forecasts in last year’s November statement.

Since the May budget the Australian share market has fallen 15 per cent.

“Every self-funded retiree and investor can see the effect on our share market,” Mr Swan said yesterday. “The heightened global volatility is making households more cautious in their spending and businesses more hesitant in their hiring decisions.”

The May budget forecast a jump in company tax revenue this year of 28.9 per cent, a jump in superannuation tax earnings of 29.3 per cent, a jump in income tax takings of 10 per cent and the creation of 200,000 extra jobs. Each of those forecasts will be sharply downgraded.

Finance minister Penny Wong said the revisions would display the “the sort of pattern we saw in the context of the global financial crisis”.

“The European circumstances have worsened,” she told Channel Ten. “Our economy is being affected, our budget is being affected. There are no easy saves left to take. You should anticipate some difficult decisions.”

The government will save around $10 billion over four years by limiting the tax deductions created by corporate mergers... It will save more cutting the tax-free treatment of so-called “living away from home” allowances paid to foreign executives. Claims for tax-free living away from home allowances have jumped from $162 million to $740 million in the past five years. A Tax Office investigation has found the most common occupations escaping tax by using the allowances are managers, directors and chief executives. More than one third claim tax-free allowances for living in Sydney.

Ms Wong said working Australians would be spared the full force of the spending cuts. “We are a Labor Government; our values underpin our economic decisions,” she said.

Mr Swan said while the measures in the statment should ensure a return to surplus in 2012-13 it would “be counterproductive to take an axe to the budget”.

“We will strike a balance between strong fiscal discipline and continuing to support job creation,” he said. “We will help underpin confidence and prosperity for the long term.”

Measures that will touch ordinary Australians include a slug of $2100 for parents who don’t give their children all of the recommended vaccinations. They will lose the three payments of three payments of $726 currently available under family tax benefit A. From July the government will abolish the $258 "maternity immunisation allowance", paid as a reward for fully immunising children. Around $200 million will be taken from the budget commitment to reward top teachers with performance pay bonuses.

Other measures include booking revenue from selling broadcast spectrum not previously included in the budget and bringing forward spending that would normally take place in 2012-13, the year of the forecast return to surplus. The government has already announced it will bring forward $1.5 billion of carbon price compensation payments. It will bring forward a further $1.4 billion in Queensland flood reconstruction spending.

Published in today's SMH and Age




Bill Shorten, Assistant Treasurer November 25, 2011

Changes to the income tax law affecting Consolidated groups

The Government will introduce changes to income tax law affecting consolidated groups as part of its continued commitment to maintaining the integrity, equity and fairness of the tax system.

The changes relate to the way a consolidated group can deduct the costs allocated to some assets following a corporate acquisition.

The changes implement the recommendations of the Board of Taxation for future consolidations and seek to ensure that companies inside corporate groups don’t receive tax benefits, which corporates outside consolidated groups are unable to receive.

“The new laws will help protect potential threats to revenue by putting a limit on the scope of amendments to the consolidation regime made in 2010,” Assistant Treasurer Bill Shorten said.

“This demonstrates the Government’s commitment to maintaining the integrity, equity and fairness of the tax system.”

The changes affecting a corporate acquisition will depend on the time when the acquisition took place. This follows recommendations from the Board of Taxation’s Report on the Review of the Consolidation Rights to Future Income and Residual Tax Cost Setting Rules and extensive consultation with a working group of tax experts and key industry bodies, including the Corporate Tax Association, the Tax Institute, the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia and CPA Australia.

The amendments address problems in the policy proposed by the former Government in 2005 (and 2007) and enacted in 2010 that affected corporate acquisitions from 2002. The changes proposed today by the Government will depend on the time when the acquisition took place. That is, different changes are proposed for acquisitions before 12 May 2010 (when the law was passed by both Houses of Parliament), after 30 March 2011 (when the Board of Taxation was asked to review the rules) and the intervening period (the transitional period).

Corporate acquisitions that took place before 12 May 2010 will be affected by the changes subject to the application of normal amendment periods. These changes are necessary to ensure deductions are claimed only when it was intended and will protect a significant amount of revenue that would otherwise be at risk.

Changes for the period between 12 May 2010 and 30 March 2011 will largely protect taxpayers who made business decisions on the basis of the current law before the Board’s review was announced.

For acquisitions after 30 March 2011 changes will be made to increase certainty for taxpayers and apply a business acquisition approach in certain cases.

Private rulings sought and received by taxpayers from the ATO, including written advice under advance compliance agreements, will stand.

The Board recommended further investigation be undertaken on two issues: the treatment of liabilities under the consolidation regime and capping the tax costs allocated to certain types of assets. I look forward to the Board’s further advice on these issues when it reports on its post implementation review of certain aspects of the consolidation regime.

The Board of Taxation’s Report on the Review of the Consolidation Rights to Future Income and Residual Tax Cost Setting Rules is available at www.taxboard.gov.au.

In addition to the changes to the income tax law affecting consolidation that I have announced today, the Government will also make changes to the operation of the taxation of financial arrangements (TOFA) rules for consolidated groups.

These changes will ensure that, for consolidated groups, the TOFA Stages 3 & 4 provisions operate as intended and that the tax treatment of financial arrangements that are liabilities is appropriate.

The changes also address the technical issues raised by industry as part of the post-enactment consultation on the TOFA Stages 3 & 4 regime and ease the transition of consolidated groups into the regime.

The changes will apply from the start of TOFA Stages 3 & 4 regime.

Details of the changes can be found on the Treasury website (www.treasury.gov.au).

Affected taxpayers should seek expert advice. Queries can be made by emailing consolidation@treasury.gov.au.

The Government will undertake public consultation on draft legislation for these measures as a matter of priority.




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