NEWSFLASH! In September I will join The Conversation as its Business and Economy Editor. I have been honoured to work at The Age for the past ten years, originally alongside the legendry Tim Colebatch, and for the past four years as economics editor in my own right.

At The Conversation, my job will be to make the best thinking from Australia's 40 univerisites accessible to the widest possible audience. That means you. From the new year I will also write a weekly column.

On this site are most of the important things I have written for Fairfax and the ABC over the past few decades. I recommend the Search function. The site is a record for you, as well as me.

I'll continue to post great things from The Conversation and other places here, and also on Twitter and Facebook. Enjoy.

Thursday, October 08, 2009

Bloody hell - employment soars



The unemployment rate is rising no longer:



Employers are hiring again.

The Reserve will hike again Melbourne Cup Day, perhaps by 0.50 points rather than 0.25


ADAM CARR: "It’s looking much more likely that the unemployment rate may be at or near a peak. I say that because this is the 7th consecutive month we’ve been around this level. Moreover there is no discernible move to shed labour and given the economy is on the path to glory I doubt very seriously it’s about to start."

CHRIS CATON: "As amazing as it would have seemed six months ago, we now may have to contemplate the possibility that unemployment may already have peaked! Recall that in the Budget, just five months ago, it was forecast that unemployment could reach 8.5-9% in this episode. At worst, a peak of 6.5% or less now seems in prospect."

STEPHEN ROBERTS: "There is now a much more compelling case for the government to revisit its fiscal stimulus plans and make appropriate cuts to avoid unnecessary competition developing between the private and public sector for resources – including labour – as the economy continues to recover.