It goes without saying that the Opposition is going to use this data to assert that the Government's December stimulus package had no effect.What I want to know is, when can we expect any kind of empirical and objective assessment of the effect on our economy of the December stimulus package?What do you think, Peter? Would the December quarter GDP have been a much greater negative number if not for the stimulus package?
Looks like inventories are where the big hit happened in, which makes sense as everyone I know has been cutting how much stock they are sitting on. I guess this means no revision in 3rd quarter numbers.
effectively no revision
PETER,On what basis do you ASSERT we are now in recession?RegardsNick
The basis that I outlined.We are two-thirds the way through the following quarter and most (although not all) indicators have got worse.Even if they got somewhat better overall, we would still be in recession as popularly defined.Naturally a really big turnaround could prove my ASSERTION wrong.I'd be welcome.
Dont understand your argument, all it takes is 0.1 % growth in Mar and we avoid technical definition of recession. Given stocks were depleted in Dec, there is still domestic demand and the fiscal stimulus starts impacting in March I would of thought a positive March quarter is more than possible?RegardsNick
Car sales fell a further 17.6 per cent in February.Let's hope a positive March quarter is more than possible.
lol reference to car sales
Peter's right. And what's wrong with making the call this early?Some of the things that were strong in the December quarter certainly won't be as strong in this one (exports + business investment)
Time will tell, inventories wont be depleted again and Id expect public investment and consumption to start to come through and possible some of the stimulus to flow through to consumption. Predictions are fine. To suggest we are actually in recession is speculation not fact though.You only ever know you've been in a recession after the fact.Nick
I should have said "it looks as if we are in a recession now".It does. We'll see.
COMMENTS ARE CLOSED