And here's the graph close up. Any takers?
Friday, November 09, 2007
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19 comments:
Non-zero Y axis exaggerates the difference?
Not to mention that Howard can't take any credit for low interest rates : the whole world has had low interest rates for a decade. Hell, Japan's went nearly to zero. Why didn't he do that for us if he's in control of them etc etc etc
umm stared at this for 5 min but apart from the fact it doesn't really prove anything, and the rate when labor took over in 83 was 12.5%, I have no idea
Nov 7 included? The nab only raised rates yesterday (Nov 8) but that last rate looks different. Of course, I could be wrong.
Hmm, just looked it up. nab raised rates to 8.57% on Nov 8. Some people have more insight than others.
what Jaycee said. Common technique of drug companies marketing.
Probably not comparing apples with apples either but I forget the details
All the rates from 1993 are from March, when are the 1983-1992 rates taken from?
Wot happened before 1983 (he asked knowingly)?
Probably using 5% on the y axis is the main factor to distort the meaning of the graph.
It has rates steady in 2007. It looks like the latest hikes are under 2006? :/
The cash rate in 1993 was as low as 4.75%, not 8.5% as shown in the graph. Are they using "mortgage" rates for parts of the ALP side of the graph which are typically higher than the cash rate?
It also claims the rates were 10% in 1996 which is also wrong.
They've cherry picked the month of March in each year which seems to have alot of the high figures for the ALP side?
By bringing economics and finance to the fore in voters minds the graphs are reminding people of workchoices is how Roy Morgan sees it.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22733408-29277,00.html
The yellow arrow for the Coalition part of the graph hides many of the interest rate risers since the last election.
Deliberately avoids showing the 22% interest rates in Feb 1982 under one J Howard as treasurer.
Jaycee got what I was getting at first:
"a non-zero Y axis exaggerates the difference"
Instead of zero, the vertical axis began at 5 per cent.
Imagine what the graph would look like if it the vertical axis began at zero as it should. The differences would be far less extreme.
And ofcourse Labor inherited a high mortgage rate from Malbolm Fraser and his Treasurer John Howard in 1983. For some reason that's left off the graph.
And yes, as pete says, drawing a straight line through the recent rate rises makes it look as if rates have been steady.
Quite nice (if outrageous) work really.
Something else. Economic policies generally take 12 - 18 months to really flow through the various systems to have impact on (amongst a range of factors) interest rates. The period 1988 - 1994 was a period of continuing rates falls, reflecting substantial structural changes. Such a fall has not been reflected in any other period. The falls recorded in 1996, 97 were the results of Keating's reforms and since then rates have been up and down, which reflects reactions to external conditions, rather than sustained and controlled domestic economic levers being applied. In other words, the govt got lucky (or unlucky). There is no end in sight to rate rises which is simply a reflection of the LNP's inability to manage the economy.
Hmmm what's wrong with that photo...hmmmm it wouldn't be that flea bitten rodent behind the podium would it?
Gerr
Would it be that time is inverted for labor, surely its an invalid graph if for one party the graph arrow is going into the past and the other into the future.
I'd take notice of such a graph if it showed the difference between the Oz interest rates and the average of OECD economies (ok, and against a floating dollar which gives Howard's time as Treasurer a chance to get off the graph).
It's a bit like a footy team graphing it's scores without including the graph for the teams it was playing... doesn't tell you at all if they are winners or losers!
As far as I have seen, the interest rates go up and down in Oz in line with international rates apart from a little Brownian motion.
Perhaps Howard is claiming control over international rates as well - I guess he does have influence in the US!
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