If you turned on the radio or opened a newspaper last Monday you would have been forgiven for thinking that a group of economists had stumbled upon a solution to Australia’s urban water crisis.
A massed rollout of suburban rainwater tanks – at the rate five per cent of households each year - would apparently be cost competitive with dams and desalination plants as a means of securing access to water.
The claims were made by the Australian Conservation Foundation, which with two other environment groups had commissioned an examination of tanks by Marsden Jacob Associates, Australia’s leading consultants on the economics of water.
Not only would a tank in nearly every house be cost competitive, it would also store water more efficiently than dams, “creating a virtual dam from the rooftops across our suburbs”.
The ABC loved the story.
On Radio National breakfast in the morning, on the TV news at night, and on our own 666 ABC Canberra in the mid-morning the Conservation Foundation spruiked the benefits of suburb to suburb rainwater tanks and lent heavily on the reputation of Marsden Jacob to give the idea weight.
The ACF’s Kate Noble told Canberra’s ABC: “What we are suggesting in our report that we commissioned by Marsden Jacob, very respected economic consultants, is that we have a targeted tank program to roll them out broad scale.”
Asked whether there were real economics behind the idea she replied.... “This is exactly why we have done this report and why it has been put out by Marsden Jacob because they are respected economists. They do the research for the National Water Commission.”
In research for the National Water Commission Marsden Jacob have twice found that rainwater tanks are a very uneconomic means of obtaining urban water, and absolutely useless for finding water during in a crisis.
Perhaps unbeknownst to the ABC and some of the newspaper journalists who wrote up the ACF press release, Marsden Jacob also said it in their 30-page report to the ACF.
Table 2 early in the report makes clear that in all but exceptional circumstances suburban rainwater tanks obtain water at a greater cost per kilolitre than dams, desalination and recycling. They can even be more expensive than the cost of pumping water long distances, which reaches $9 a kilolitre. By contrast reusing storm water and buying rural water costs less than $2 per kilolitre.
The ACF told interviewers that if governments put rainwater tanks in 5 per cent of households each year Sydney could delay the need for a desalination plant for a decade.
Marsden Jacob had told it that could only happen if 70 to 78 per cent of properties got rainwater tanks. Many of those tanks would catch water at a very high cost per kilolitre.
The ACF late last week defended its treatment of the report. Its urban water campaigner Kate Noble said that in publicising these sorts of report groups such as the ACF “always emphasise some parts and not others”. She said the ACF had been trying to get rainwater tanks onto the agenda and was not responsible for the actions of the media.
Marsden Jacob’s principal John Marsden said last night that he was disappointed with the “enthusiastic” treatment of his report by the ACF. He said he had gone out of his way not to publicly criticise the ACF and that it remained an organisation for which he had great respect.
Monday, April 23, 2007
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4 comments:
I'm a recognised expert in the field of financial modelling, and think Peter's comments ALSO miss the point by 'hosing down' (pun intended) the opportunity for domestic rainwater tanks.
Clearly for Adelaide's water security, the best approach is to buy-back Murray-Darling water rights from irrigators. However, there are no such easy solutions for Sydney or Brisbane/SE-Qld, which are East of the Great Divide. However, both Sydney and Brisbane have dams to their West and higher rainfall nearer the coast where the homes are.
So the Eastern capital options are more distant dams and large pumping bills, desalination's "turning electricity into water", stormwater harvesting or smaller-scale domestic tanks and re-use.
The issue is whether you want a centralised government-controlled approach, or if incentives upon market forces over a larger number of participants will give a better result.
In electricity, for example, government bodies consistently favour grid-based systems, eg nuclear energy over renewables. But we have to ask ourselves, to what extent is this the natural response of a bureaucracy to losing its grip over its feifdom. Remember that in most NSW cities and many towns, it was illegal for most of the last 40 years to install a domestic rainwater tank.
Personally, I believe that with such examples of governments getting it plainly 100% wrong, we are 'safer' with many small-scale projects.
The main detraction for domestic rainwater tanks is not the supply of water, as even Sydney regularly gets 1400mm per annum. So if you take your 100 square metre domestic roof space, that means 140 kilolitres per annum available for free for that household. With a small amount of re-use (eg greywater from shower and basin use used for garden and toilet flushing), every household should be able to live comfortably on under 100 litres/person/day of fresh water. So assuming an average occupancy of 3.5 people, a typical house needs 128 kilolitres per annum. Now it is an issue of how large a tank to install. Unless you have a quite large tank (for a residential block of land) you can't capture all of the rain in the weeks of heaviest downpours. But even a smallish tank will capture enough to supply 60-70% of a family's annual needs... and that may only fall to 45-50% in years of low rainfall in the dams. So the dams and the reticulation system can become the storage backup, but much of the 'base load' can be supplied on-site!
The main cost of a tank is the capital cost. For this, most modellers have assumed current retail prices... but if we were to buy a million of these simple spun-poly (or steel) tanks, why not let the government do what it does best, run a tender for the supply of 100,000 per supplier with a few bulk depots from where they can be picked up by residents. The cost would plummet.
But the really misleading bit in most modelling is the capital cost vs energy consumption trade-off. To cite (as Peter has) a cost per kilolitre, it assumes you are depreciating the $400-600 tank over some period, yet in current farm use, these things last longer than houses! Conversely, people are forgetting the likely future carbon tax cost of the high energy requirement for either pumping long distances or (worse) desalination. As the water problem is a symptom of global warming, it seems self-defeating to go to a high-energy solution to fix that symptom (as it is likely to exacerbate the underlying problem). And if you assume that we must get a carbon tax, and with or without one, the cost of electricity will go up considerably, then comparing the current dollar capital cost of a tank (with no on-going costs or energy demand) against a high on-going energy consumption solution, you need to factor electricity costs escalating to a multiple of their current costs in real terms. That changes the economics dramatically.
But maybe, to become environmentally more sensitive, all of us have to face more self-sustainable lifestyles, with less dependence on grids, and more self-sufficiency. Even if it were not the strictly lowest-cost approach, we'd be far more conservation-minded if we could peer into the tank to see how full it is, or if we check the meter to see how much on-site solar+wind electricity we've generated. With that approach, we'd be more mindful of our eco-footprint, and maybe create less waste as well!
One thing is for certain, if we go the 'small is beautiful' route, we won't be sitting helplessly in houses that depend on reticulation for all utilities, writing blogs on how the government has stuffed up the latest dam project, with a five-year blow-out in delivery time.
And even if rainwater tanks can't defer desalination by 20 years, but only manage 10-15 years of growth, we need to remember that any desalination technology we'd install now would be definitely obsolete within that timeframe. So even a reasonable deferment means we HAVE saved a full desal plant.
Bring on some serious levels of subsidies for rainwater tanks. The remaining cost (eg to plumb-in) would be gladly paid by sufficient of the populace, given it will be the only route to allow you to avoid ever tougher water restrictions.
Graeme (email: prof at-symbol post.harvard.edu)
Dear Graeme,
Thank you for your great comments.
The best Marsden Jacob report is on rainwater thanks is here:
http://www.nwc.gov.au/publications/docs/WaterlinesRainwaterTanks.pdf
A few surprises. They assume tanks last for 50 years, but pumps, needed for indoor use, need to be replaced every 10 years (cheap ones more often).
Also, contrary to exectations, they find that the the main cost of water from rainwater tanks is the NOT the capital cost of the tanks.
They say:
Interestingly, the cost of the physical tank itself might account for as little as 30% of the whole of life cost if the tank is plumbed for both indoor and outdoor use. In a “typical” installation, the water pump (including replacement every 10 years) might account for around 35%, installation and plumbing 25% and ongoing operation and maintenance around 10%.
Yes, Peter, I agree that "plumbing in" is relatively expensive, 'cause plumbers charge about $80 per hour (Sydney prices) compared to fast-food employees getting $5 per hour (ie about 16x more than less skilled jobs).
But I still have a reasonable basis for comparison, as I pay Sydney Water for three properties in Sydney, and have a farm in the Southern Highlands which has tanks, pumps and plumbing. The farm's house is expensive to make any plumbing changes (remote location and 1880s historic house) but the major plumbing is around the outside of the stone house, so I recently replaced the main pump (800 Watt for up to five concurrent taps used over two-storey building) for $195 off e-bay, including full auto pressure-sensing on/off electronics (ie just plug in to normal power point and it works).
I'd have to say that the cost of running the rainwater-off-roof with full reticulation, including replacing pump etc is far cheaper than $1000pa to Sydney Water... but the tank was there when I bought that house!
Indeed, when you are not connected to any water reticulation, you can do the plumbing more easily, without the complication of interfacing mains pressure water with own supply.
I still worry that any report done for government or water authorities will reflect the authorities bias against 'home-grown' solutions. In the 1970s the Californian legislature had to pass a law REQUIRING electricity companies to accept domestically produced power back onto the grid! The bias is a natural one as it's a big loss of control. And of course at the same time we had LAWS in place preventing people from installing rainwater tanks. That was not because tanks didn't make economic sense - arguably it proves they did make economic sense in the eyes of some consumers and the utilities did not want to lose the billing monopoly to charge for all water usage.
Graeme
LETTER TO CANBERRA TIMES pUBLISHED APRIL 25 2007
The Australian Conservation Foundation
has not misrepresented the
findings of its economics of rainwater
tanks and alternative supply options
report (‘‘Tank solution holds no water’’,
April 23, p1).
ACF proposes a large scale targeted
program of rainwater tank installation
for areas with suitable, large roof area
houses in higher rainfall regions, such
as Sydney and south-east Queensland.
A National Water Commission report
released the day after ACF’s reaffirms
the potential of this approach.
As National Water Commission CEO
Ken Matthews said, ‘‘for many
households with large connected roof
areas (particularly in Brisbane, Sydney
and Melbourne), the unit cost fell to
within 20 per cent of the top tier price
of mains water . . .
‘‘The cost of tanks may also be offset
by savings in the stormwater system,
and by environmental benefits for
urban rivers and streams.’’
Rainwater tanks should not be
dismissed out of hand, but further
investigated to precisely determine
their many environmental, social and
economic benefits.
Kate Noble, Australian Conservation
Foundation, Carlton, Vic
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